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July 4, 2009, 11:39 AM

Halladay best best for July 4

Blue Jays ace looks to keep up his success versus the Yankees

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By AJ Mass
ESPN.com
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For starters

Starting pitcher rankings for Saturday, July 4

Rk	Team	Name	T	W-L	ERA	WHIP	K/9	OPSA	Opp	OPS	CT%
1		Roy Halladay	R	10-2	2.56	1.05	7.84	.616	@NYY	.823	83.0%
2		Tim Lincecum	R	8-2	2.37	1.07	10.42	.579	HOU	.732	83.1%
3		Tommy Hanson	R	4-0	2.48	1.41	5.59	.681	@WAS	.746	77.2%
4		Zach Duke	L	8-6	3.13	1.19	4.34	.702	@FLA	.727	77.0%
5		Gavin Floyd	R	6-5	4.12	1.32	7.10	.668	@KC	.712	80.5%
6		Aaron Cook	R	8-3	3.77	1.33	4.59	.732	ARI	.720	76.8%
7		Randy Wolf	L	3-3	3.61	1.18	6.51	.714	@SD	.693	79.0%
8		Edwin Jackson	R	6-4	2.49	1.04	6.98	.606	@MIN	.762	80.5%
9		John Lannan	L	5-5	3.45	1.35	4.27	.756	ATL	.723	82.1%
10		Brad Penny	R	6-3	4.79	1.51	5.99	.826	SEA	.719	82.2%
11		Braden Looper	R	6-4	4.90	1.40	5.40	.816	@CHC	.722	77.6%
12		Francisco Liriano	L	4-8	5.62	1.52	8.03	.811	DET	.751	80.3%
13		Rich Harden	R	5-4	4.57	1.40	10.21	.772	MIL	.761	76.4%
14		Jamie Moyer	L	6-6	6.05	1.51	5.40	.910	NYM	.749	83.6%
15		David Price	L	2-2	3.93	1.55	9.08	.751	@TEX	.775	76.7%
16		Vin Mazzaro	R	2-3	2.95	1.17	6.87	.574	@CLE	.758	77.5%
17		Carl Pavano	R	6-7	5.56	1.41	6.63	.805	OAK	.677	81.4%
18		Andrew Miller	L	2-4	4.45	1.42	7.10	.697	PIT	.732	80.0%
19		Micah Owings	R	5-8	4.63	1.55	5.38	.781	STL	.735	81.7%
20		Josh Geer	R	1-3	5.68	1.31	4.87	.865	LAD	.748	80.9%
21		Luke Hochevar	R	3-3	4.96	1.21	3.57	.696	CHW	.748	80.6%
22		Russ Ortiz	R	3-3	3.36	1.45	6.58	.744	@SF	.698	78.4%
23		Fernando Nieve	R	3-1	2.25	1.33	5.25	.653	@PHI	.778	79.8%
24		Garrett Olson	L	3-2	4.81	1.23	4.81	.776	@BOS	.800	79.7%
25		Jason Berken	R	1-5	6.44	1.62	5.45	.833	@LAA	.775	81.5%
26		Brad Thompson	R	2-4	4.69	1.27	2.81	.761	@CIN	.712	80.6%
27		Derek Holland	R	1-5	6.20	1.60	7.11	.886	TB	.821	77.7%
28		Sean O'Sullivan	R	2-0	3.00	1.28	6.50	.803	BAL	.754	83.1%
29		Yusmeiro Petit	R	0-3	8.03	1.74	6.93	.984	@COL	.774	77.1%
30		Chien-Ming Wang	R	1-6	10.06	2.13	6.87	1.036	TOR	.779	83.6%

Rk.: The author's ranking of that pitcher for that day only. T: Pitcher throws left-handed or right-handed. W-L: Pitcher's win-loss record. ERA: Pitcher's earned run average. WHIP: Pitcher's average number of walks plus hits surrendered per inning. K/9: Pitcher's average number of strikeouts per nine innings. OPSA: Pitcher's on-base plus slugging percentage surrendered to opponents. OPS: Pitcher's opponent's composite team on-base plus slugging percentage. CT%: Pitcher's opponent's success rate putting the ball in play (versus striking out).

Selected notes for Saturday:

Tim Lincecum goes at home against the Astros, where he is 14-7 with a 3.29 ERA for his career. Expect numbers better than that against low-scoring Houston; 12th in the NL in runs scored. … We're Tommy Hanson believers. He's been a perfect 3-0 with an ERA of 0.00 over his past three starts, and forgive us if the Nationals strike little fear in our hearts. … Zach Duke is an interesting pitcher, who has put up solid fantasy numbers, despite a severe lack of strikeouts. Still, the Marlins usually have three lefties in the lineup who are hitting just a combined .178 against southpaws. … Gavin Floyd hasn't lost since May 27 and has lowered his ERA by two full points over that stretch. Similarly, Aaron Cook has been outstanding lately, with a 3-0 record and a 2.05 ERA in his last three starts. … Edwin Jackson concerns us a bit with his lifetime mark against Minnesota being poor at best. He's 1-3 with an 8.85 ERA against the Twins. … John Lannan doesn't win too often, but is still a solid pitcher and he's got a 3.30 ERA lifetime against the Braves. We've slotted him just ahead of Brad Penny, who faces a surging Seattle lineup that is hitting .304 as a team over the last two weeks. … Just outside the top 10, we find Braden Looper who has a 2.57 ERA against the Cubs, though only a 3-6 record to show for it. That's a much better effort than Rich Harden has put out against the Brew Crew, with a 4.67 ERA in his past three tries against Milwaukee. In between those two combatants, we have Francisco Liriano, who sports a 2-0 record with a 2.51 ERA in his past three facing the Tigers. … Yes, Jamie Moyer's 9.64 ERA in his past three against the Mets is sad, but he's going up against Fernando Nieve, who has a 33.75 ERA in five relief appearances against the team under his frayed belt. … David Price rounds out the upper half, though he has to do better than the 5.82 ERA in his past three outings to merit anything higher in our rankings going forward. … Not much excitement in our bottom half: Garrett Olsen's career ERA at Fenway Park is 8.82; Micah Owings has a 5.50 ERA at the Great American Ballpark; Russ Ortiz is 0-3 with a 7.46 ERA lifetime against the Giants; you get the idea. … Sean O'Sullivan steps in for Matt Palmer, whom the Angels have decided would better serve the team working out of the pen. … To wrap things up, we can't help pointing out how much Brad Thompson looks like Kathleen Madigan from "Last Comic Standing" fame. That's not the reason we've ranked him so low; no, his 2.81 K/9 rate is reason enough to laugh.

Starting pitcher rankings for Sunday, July 5

Rk	Team	Name	T	W-L	ERA	WHIP	K/9	OPSA	Opp	OPS	CT%
1		Dan Haren	R	7-5	2.19	0.81	8.84	.533	@COL	.774	77.1%
2		Chad Billingsley	R	9-4	3.12	1.26	8.81	.652	@SD	.693	79.0%
3		Johan Santana	L	9-6	3.34	1.26	9.15	.700	@PHI	.778	79.8%
4		Ted Lilly	L	7-6	3.35	1.13	7.57	.708	MIL	.761	76.4%
5		Jon Lester	L	7-6	4.35	1.31	10.33	.720	SEA	.719	82.2%
6		Roy Oswalt	R	4-4	4.02	1.30	7.09	.759	@SF	.698	78.4%
7		Ubaldo Jimenez	R	6-7	3.75	1.33	7.40	.665	ARI	.720	76.8%
8		Cliff Lee	L	4-7	3.39	1.38	6.47	.722	OAK	.677	81.4%
9		Chris Carpenter	R	5-3	2.42	0.82	6.75	.532	@CIN	.712	80.6%
10		Derek Lowe	R	7-6	4.44	1.40	4.88	.730	@WAS	.746	77.2%
11		Nick Blackburn	R	6-4	3.10	1.30	3.77	.712	DET	.751	80.3%
12		Randy Johnson	L	8-5	4.70	1.32	7.98	.792	HOU	.732	83.1%
13		Joe Saunders	L	8-5	4.24	1.30	5.21	.759	BAL	.754	83.1%
14		Ricky Nolasco	R	5-6	5.99	1.45	8.22	.830	PIT	.732	80.0%
15		Joba Chamberlain	R	4-2	3.89	1.47	8.11	.769	TOR	.779	83.6%
16		Scott Richmond	R	6-5	3.69	1.20	7.49	.730	@NYY	.823	83.0%
17		Ross Ohlendorf	R	7-6	4.41	1.24	4.88	.761	@FLA	.727	77.0%
18		Rick Porcello	R	8-5	3.90	1.42	4.77	.771	@MIN	.762	80.5%
19		Brian Bannister	R	5-6	3.93	1.30	5.63	.684	CHW	.748	80.6%
20		Scott Feldman	R	6-2	4.09	1.18	4.63	.684	TB	.821	77.7%
21		Jeff Niemann	R	7-4	3.95	1.41	5.08	.742	@TEX	.775	76.7%
22		Bronson Arroyo	R	8-7	5.69	1.52	4.78	.864	STL	.735	81.7%
23		Joe Blanton	R	4-4	5.08	1.47	8.12	.827	NYM	.749	83.6%
24		Mike Burns	R	1-1	3.31	1.29	4.96	.719	@CHC	.722	77.6%
25		Brett Anderson	L	4-7	5.45	1.51	6.30	.835	@CLE	.758	77.5%
26		Clayton Richard	L	3-1	4.48	1.51	6.85	.792	@KC	.712	80.5%
27		Rich Hill	L	3-2	7.08	1.80	8.19	.860	@LAA	.775	81.5%
28		Brandon Morrow	R	0-3	5.14	1.83	9.77	.787	@BOS	.800	79.7%
29		Josh Banks	R	1-0	3.38	1.05	4.05	.700	LAD	.748	80.9%
30		Scott Olsen	L	1-4	6.56	1.75	6.75	.952	ATL	.723	82.1%

Rk.: The author's ranking of that pitcher for that day only. T: Pitcher throws left-handed or right-handed. W-L: Pitcher's win-loss record. ERA: Pitcher's earned run average. WHIP: Pitcher's average number of walks plus

Selected notes for Sunday:

You can't really go wrong with any of the top three on our list: Dan Haren already has faced Colorado twice this year, with an 0.64 ERA, Chad Billingsley is 8-3 lifetime against the Padres with a 2.62 ERA, and Johan Santana, though he has been shaky of late, has never lost to Philadelphia. … Ted Lilly has struggled lately, with an 0-2 record and 5.21 ERA in his last three, otherwise he might be right there at the top himself. … Jon Lester is always a good play at Fenway Park, with his career 19-5 record there. … Roy Oswalt is also better than his 2009 numbers, and is 2-0 with a 3.60 ERA against the Giants in his past three starts against them. … Ubaldo Jimenez has a career 2.18 ERA against the Diamondbacks, earning the Rockies starter entry into our top ten, ahead of Cliff Lee who has struggled to get wins this season. Still, you have to like his 0.61 ERA against Oakland in his past three games against the team. Just as Derek' Lowe's 5-2 lifetime mark against the Nationals makes him the last member of our top ten for Sunday. … Nick Blackburn at the Metrodome is usually a winning combination. He's 11-3 with a 2.85 ERA there, but Detroit is hitting .270 over the last two weeks. … Randy Johnson is always good against Houston, with a 4-1 record and a 3.64 ERA, and while Joe Saunders gives up a few more runs (4.15 ERA) he has never lost to Baltimore in five decisions. … Ricky Nolasco has been lights-out of late, 3-0 with a 1.35 ERA, but we do fear he's due for a bit of a setback. Just being cautious here. … Brian Bannister falls to No. 18 due to an 8.15 lifetime ERA against the White Sox. … We're hesitant with Jeff Niemann because of the 100-plus temperatures in Texas, though still happier starting him than Bronson Arroyo and his 6.05 ERA in his past three against the Cardinals. … Others in the bottom third: Mike Burns needs a few more solid starts before we buy in on the 30-year-old; Brett Anderson is rocking a 6.28 ERA in his past three, which is only slightly better than Clayton Richard's 7.43; and Brandon Morrow plus Fenway Park equals disaster, as the Red Sox are slugging .667 against him there. Strikeouts or not, we don't like the matchup.

Now batting (Saturday)

Hitters' count:

• Jason Varitek, C, Red Sox: Varitek is a .357 hitter when going up against Garrett Olson, with three home runs and six RBIs in 14 at-bats.
• Magglio Ordonez, OF, Tigers: His batting average has dropped 25 points since May 30, but Ordonez is a .353 career hitter against Francisco Liriano. Maybe he starts to turn things around.
• Adam LaRoche, 1B, Pirates: LaRoche is hitting .327 against the current Marlins staff and is still hammering the ball after a June in which he amassed a .559 slugging percentage.
• Kosuke Fukudome, OF, Cubs: He's tends to be "super-duper" against Braden Looper, with an .875 OPS, over 100 points higher than his career number in that category.
• Aaron Hill, 2B, Blue Jays: Chien-Ming Wang hasn't exactly lit the world on fire this season, but Hill's bat certainly is when Wang's on the mound -- a .588 batting average will do the job nicely.
• Johnny Damon, OF, Yankees: Damon will make sure Roy Halladay's holiday is not a happy one, with a .345 batting average against the Blue Jays' ace in 84 career at-bats.
• David Wright, 3B, Mets: If there are going to be fireworks in Philadelphia, Wright could well be the source. He's a .463 lifetime hitter against Jamie Moyer, with three home runs and nine RBIs.
• Michael Cuddyer, OF, Twins: Cuddyer has five career RBIs and a .750 batting average against Edwin Jackson of the Tigers.

Pitchers' count:

• Jermaine Dye, OF, White Sox: Against Luke Hochevar, Dye is not all that formidable, with a .111 lifetime average against the Royals' scheduled Saturday starter.
• Jose Guillen, OF, Royals: He's 2-for-his-past-13, and nursing a sore back to boot. Throw in a .211 batting average against Gavin Floyd, and we'll pass.
• Michael Bourn, OF, Astros: As the old saying goes, "You can't steal first base." Bourn has never managed a hit against Tim Lincecum, which casts big doubts on his fantasy value for Saturday.
• Adam Jones, OF, Orioles: It's hard to recover from running face-first into the outfield wall. It's even harder to start a guy batting .065 lifetime against the Angels.
• Prince Fielder, 1B, Brewers: Fielder has been very princely, hitting .368 with four homers in his past ten games, but against Rich Harden, it's the Cubs pitcher who has ruled, holding Fielder to a .143 batting average.
• Russell Martin, C, Dodgers: He's batting only .216 against the current roster of San Diego pitchers, and nary a base hit off today's starter, Josh Geer.
• Matt Holliday, OF, Athletics: Similarly awful against his current opponent, Holliday is hitting an anemic .184 against the Tribe's finest arms, with no hits lifetime against Carl Pavano.
• Justin Upton, OF, Diamondbacks: In the first two days of July, Upton went 0-for-9. Against Aaron Cook, he's only one hit better for his career. No thanks.

If you're hardcore

• Gregor Blanco, OF, Braves: Blanco has been getting some playing time from manager Bobby Cox lately, and is a perfect 3-for-3 against John Lannan.
• Randy Winn, OF, Giants: Winn has hit .391 since last Saturday and has a .917 OPS against Russ Ortiz.
• Sam Fuld, OF, Cubs: Fuld has two extra-base hits already in July. Alfonso Soriano has had three since June 10. Just saying.
• Eric Hinske, OF, Yankees: When is he going to get in the lineup? Maybe today? He has six RBIs career against Roy Halladay.
• Jarrett Hoffpauir, 2B, Cardinals: With Mark DeRosa out for the weekend, the Cards have called up the youngster to make his major league debut.
• Edgar Gonzalez, 3B, Padres: The other San Diego Gonzalez might be able to provide some pop against Randy Wolf. He's homered off him in the past … why not the present?
• Ian Stewart, 3B, Rockies: Stewart likes to hit against Arizona, and he's a .311 hitter against the current slate of Diamondback arms.

Now batting (Sunday)

Hitters' count:

• Manny Ramirez, OF, Dodgers: In case you haven't heard, Manny is back.
• Chipper Jones, 3B, Braves: Poor Scott Olsen. He's in for a drubbing at the hands of Chipper, who is batting .565 against the Nationals hurler with 13 RBIs in 23 at-bats.
• Cristian Guzman, SS, Nationals: His success rate against Derek Lowe is high, with a .346 batting average against the Atlanta Braves' Sunday starter.
• Miguel Cabrera, 1B, Tigers: Sure, you're starting Miggy regardless, but the .444 career average against Nick Blackburn sure raises the excitement level a tad.
• Lyle Overbay, 1B, Blue Jays: He has 16 RBIs against the Yankees since 2006, and a .571 OBP against Joba Chamberlain.
• Ryan Howard, 1B, Phillies: Johan Santana's been giving up the longball lately, and with Howard already with three blasts off the Mets ace and a .350 batting average, he's in line for a huge day.
• Aubrey Huff, 1B, Orioles: Huff is hitting .467 against Joe Saunders. We're not speaking French here … get him in your lineup. Why are you still waiting?
• Ryan Braun, OF, Brewers: As if the .405 average in his past nine games weren't enough reason, how about the career 1.577 OPS against Ted Lilly?

Pitchers' count:

• Bobby Crosby, SS, Athletics: For those of you still hanging on to Crosby … let him go. Cliff Lee has retired him 14 of 15 times over the years.
• Franklin Gutierrez, OF, Mariners: Yes, he's hit safely in 12 of his past 13 games, but Jon Lester has handled him well, with a 90 percent success rate against the Seattle outfielder.
• Denard Span, OF, Twins: Yes, he's hitting .391 against the Tigers, but last time out, Porcello held him to an 0-for-3. Advantage Porcello.
• Troy Tulowitzki, SS, Rockies: He went 0-for-13 against the Dodgers, and with 10 strikeouts in 18 at-bats against Dan Haren, the outlook isn't so brilliant for Troy.
• Jason Bartlett, SS, Rays: He's only hitting .208 against the Rangers' pitching staff, and the heat down in Texas is simply oppressive. We're sitting the shortstop Sunday.
• Paul Konerko, 1B, White Sox: Brian Bannister has done well against Konerko. The White Sox slugger has no home runs and only a .182 average against him.
• Adrian Gonzalez, 1B, Padres: He's had a slow start to July due to a strained right knee, and is only hitting .212 against the Dodgers so far this season.

If you're hardcore

• Drew Sutton, 2B, Reds: If the Reds don't want to rush Edwin Encarnacion back from his rehab, with Danny Richar hurt, perhaps Sutton gets some starts this weekend.
• Andrew McCutchen, OF, Pirates: Still owned in only 42 percent of ESPN standard leagues, McCutchen is slugging .556 so far in July.
• Alejandro De Aza, OF, Marlins: There's absolutely no rhyme or reason to this selection, we admit. But sometimes a name just jumps out at you, so we felt compelled to include him here.
• Matt Diaz, OF, Braves: He's 6-for-9 so far in July and a .429 hitter against Scott Olsen, with three career homers. We're going with the hot hand here.
• Fred Lewis, OF, Giants: He's been losing time in the Giants' outfield shuffle, but should get a shot to play against Roy Oswalt based on his .571 lifetime batting average.
• Brett Gardner, OF, Yankees: When he plays, he usually runs, but he actually displayed power in his only previous at-bat against Scott Richmond, a two-run blast back in May.
• Joe Thurston, 3B, Cardinals: Another recommendation thanks to the injury to Mark DeRosa, Thurston is all "lovey" when Bronson Arroyo is on the mound, having gone 2-for-3 against him last time they met in June.

Triage

Injury list: Out

• Mark DeRosa, 3B, Cardinals (wrist): The injury to his wrist does not look like it will require a trip to the disabled list, but the team will likely sit him this weekend to give the injury time to heal. Expect DeRosa back in the lineup early next week.
• Raul Ibanez, OF, Phillies (15-day disabled list, groin): Ibanez is eligible to return from the disabled list, but he has yet to play in any rehab games for Double-A Reading. Until he has a handful of live at-bats under his belt, don't expect him back at Citizens Bank Park.

Injury list: Day-to-day

• Melvin Mora, 3B, Orioles (personal choice): As far as we can tell, Mora's not hurt. He's simply tired and asked manager Dave Trembley for a few days off. As to whether or not Mora's "vacation" is over, we'll have to wait and see what Melvin says.
• Alexei Ramirez, SS, White Sox (finger): X-rays on the finger he hurt fielding a grounder were negative, but Ozzie Guillen won't commit to a timetable for his return to the lineup.
• Rich Aurilia, 1B, Giants (bereavement list): Our condolences to Aurilia, whose father passed away last week. He is ready to return to the team, but since the Giants need to make a roster move in order to allow that to happen, they may plan on waiting until after the weekend to figure out who gets the ticket to Fresno.
• Danny Richar, 3B, Reds (shoulder): Richar hurt his shoulder sliding home Wednesday and is currently unable to swing a bat. Normally, this wouldn't be big fantasy news, but if Richar is seriously hurt, the team might be forced to activate Edwin Encarnacion earlier than anticipated.

Weather concerns

• With all but one "dome team" on the road, this weekend has just the one set of weatherproof games: Tigers at Twins.
• Postgame fireworks displays might not go off exactly as planned with rainy weather from the mountains to the prairies on the 4th of July. Thunderstorms are in the Saturday forecast for Boston, Chicago, Cincinnati, Kansas City, Florida and Colorado. .
• Sunday sees similar showers scheduled for all the above cities, except for Boston and Chicago, which should still be cloudy, but otherwise dry.

AJ Mass is a fantasy baseball, football and college basketball analyst for ESPN.com. You can e-mail him here.