Wakefield faces weak A's team
It's not a pleasant day for fantasy owners to be picking spot-start candidates, as the truth is, despite my rankings of 30 pitchers, I'd confidently recommend only about a dozen of the folks slated to start Wednesday. Case in point: Rodrigo Lopez ranks 12th, yet he'll be making only his second start for the Phillies.
Some of the good: Ten-game winners Zack Greinke and Tim Wakefield will pitch, and each faces a decent enough matchup. Some of the bad: Oliver Perez marks his return to the Mets' rotation against a potent Dodgers lineup, while the erratic Homer Bailey gets a frightening matchup at bandbox Citizens Bank Park.
Some of the rest: The Angels and Rangers continue their American League West showdown in Los Angeles, with two right-handers who have been plagued by injury at times this season, Ervin Santana and Vicente Padilla. It might be the type of game that reminds you of a typical affair at hitters-heaven Rangers Ballpark.
For starters
Starting pitcher rankings for July 8, 2009
| Name | |||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  | Max Scherzer | R | 5-6 | 3.73 | 1.38 | 8.87 | .731 | SD | .689 | 79.0% |
| 2 |  | Zack Greinke | R | 10-4 | 2.00 | 1.05 | 8.90 | .620 | @DET | .746 | 80.1% |
| 3 |  | Wandy Rodriguez | L | 7-6 | 3.21 | 1.33 | 8.25 | .733 | PIT | .726 | 79.7% |
| 4 |  | Tim Wakefield | R | 10-3 | 4.30 | 1.35 | 4.65 | .720 | OAK | .682 | 81.7% |
| 5 |  | Carlos Zambrano | R | 4-3 | 3.50 | 1.31 | 6.90 | .694 | ATL | .727 | 82.4% |
| 6 |  | Jose Contreras | R | 3-7 | 4.84 | 1.27 | 6.18 | .720 | CLE | .765 | 77.7% |
| 7 |  | A.J. Burnett | R | 7-4 | 3.83 | 1.36 | 8.82 | .738 | @MIN | .766 | 80.4% |
| 8 |  | Hiroki Kuroda | R | 3-4 | 3.91 | 1.01 | 6.89 | .624 | @NYM | .740 | 83.4% |
| 9 |  | Scott Kazmir | L | 4-5 | 6.79 | 1.80 | 7.44 | .870 | TOR | .778 | 83.5% |
| 10 |  | Ryan Sadowski | R | 2-0 | 0.00 | 0.85 | 4.15 | .411 | FLA | .729 | 77.2% |
| 11 |  | Chris Volstad | R | 5-8 | 4.85 | 1.28 | 6.50 | .778 | @SF | .704 | 78.6% |
| 12 |  | Rodrigo Lopez | R | 1-0 | 2.84 | 1.11 | 5.68 | .629 | CIN | .712 | 80.8% |
| 13 |  | Brian Tallet | L | 5-6 | 4.38 | 1.35 | 6.62 | .703 | @TB | .812 | 77.7% |
| 14 |  | Jorge De La Rosa | L | 5-7 | 5.14 | 1.44 | 9.37 | .761 | WAS | .743 | 77.4% |
| 15 |  | Glen Perkins | L | 4-4 | 4.38 | 1.27 | 4.26 | .721 | NYY | .828 | 82.9% |
| 16 |  | Jason Vargas | L | 3-3 | 4.14 | 1.33 | 5.37 | .789 | BAL | .748 | 83.2% |
| 17 |  | Ervin Santana | R | 1-4 | 7.43 | 1.90 | 6.44 | .969 | TEX | .774 | 76.6% |
| 18 |  | Charlie Morton | R | 1-1 | 2.65 | 1.18 | 5.82 | .649 | @HOU | .726 | 82.9% |
| 19 |  | Kenshin Kawakami | R | 4-6 | 4.46 | 1.38 | 7.19 | .784 | @CHC | .726 | 77.9% |
| 20 |  | David Hernandez | R | 2-2 | 4.15 | 1.65 | 4.85 | .825 | @SEA | .720 | 81.9% |
| 21 |  | Jeff Suppan | R | 5-6 | 4.60 | 1.60 | 4.88 | .862 | STL | .737 | 81.9% |
| 22 |  | Chad Gaudin | R | 4-7 | 5.35 | 1.44 | 9.28 | .711 | @ARI | .724 | 77.0% |
| 23 |  | Vicente Padilla | R | 6-4 | 4.75 | 1.51 | 4.86 | .746 | @LAA | .780 | 81.9% |
| 24 |  | Todd Wellemeyer | R | 7-7 | 5.44 | 1.66 | 5.72 | .859 | @MIL | .763 | 76.6% |
| 25 |  | Aaron Laffey | L | 3-1 | 3.93 | 1.49 | 4.98 | .687 | @CHW | .750 | 80.7% |
| 26 |  | Luke French | L | 0-0 | 2.35 | 1.43 | 7.04 | .668 | KC | .713 | 80.5% |
| 27 |  | Trevor Cahill | R | 5-7 | 4.55 | 1.44 | 4.35 | .831 | @BOS | .792 | 79.5% |
| 28 |  | Ross Detwiler | L | 0-4 | 5.81 | 1.67 | 5.63 | .809 | @COL | .769 | 77.3% |
| 29 |  | Oliver Perez | L | 1-2 | 9.97 | 2.26 | 8.31 | .948 | LAD | .752 | 80.9% |
| 30 |  | Homer Bailey | R | 1-0 | 5.94 | 1.44 | 5.40 | .571 | @PHI | .790 | 79.9% |
Selected notes: If there's one team we know Max Scherzer can dominate, it's San Diego. But then, what strikeout artist doesn't dominate San Diego? The Padres are down another key bat following the trade of Scott Hairston, their lineup features several unproven youngsters and Scherzer already has 16 strikeouts and a 1.50 ERA in 12 innings in his two starts against them this season. … So Zack Greinke is human after all. Since June 1, he's 2-3 with a 3.89 ERA and 1.37 WHIP in six starts, although, in his defense, his batting average allowed on balls in play is an inflated .358, meaning some poor fortune might have come into play. Feel free to be selective, extracting the good of this matchup by noting his two complete-game victories versus the Tigers this season, during which he had a combined 18 strikeouts and allowed only two runs (one earned) on nine hits. In fact, Greinke historically has mastered Detroit; he's 10-4 with a 2.69 ERA and 1.13 WHIP in 19 games (16 starts) versus that squad. … There finally is a (possible) explanation for Wandy Rodriguez's struggles; he believes he was tipping his pitches. After correcting the flaw, the left-hander went seven strong innings to win Thursday, an encouraging sign even if it was an easy matchup at San Diego. Still, it's progress, so there's less reason to fret about his loss at Pittsburgh on May 30, when he allowed five runs on nine hits in 4 2/3 innings. He still is awfully good in home games, with a 2.60 ERA and 1.15 WHIP in eight starts, and the Pirates are an awfully bad road offense, with a .679 road OPS. … Tim Wakefield (incredibly) has gone the distance -- a full nine innings, I mean -- precisely once during this All-Star campaign of his, and it came April 15 against these very Athletics, when he limited them to two runs on four hits in Oakland. The Athletics aren't much better offensively today than they were back then, and Wakefield is 6-0 with a 3.86 ERA and 1.29 WHIP in eight starts at Fenway Park this season. He's a must-start. … Jose Contreras defeated the Indians with eight innings of two-run, five-hit, eight-strikeout baseball in his most recent turn this past Wednesday, he's 6-2 with a 3.15 ERA and 1.26 WHIP in 14 career games (13 starts) versus Cleveland, and he's in the midst of a five-start hot streak in which he has three wins, a 2.17 ERA and 0.78 WHIP. What's not to like? … Scott Kazmir has looked fine in his two starts since returning from the disabled list, allowing five runs (three earned) on nine hits in 10 innings while striking out 11. And be aware that one of those starts came in Texas, a treacherous matchup. He's historically strong in home games, with a 3.51 ERA in his past 50 starts at Tropicana Field, although I wouldn't expect great length in the outing (something shallow-mixed owners need consider). … Don't be surprised if Ryan Sadowski's streak of quality starts to begin his big league career extends to three. This is a way better home team than road team, and the Marlins have a ho-hum .695 team OPS in road contests. I'm not full of excitement regarding Sadowski, but the matchup bodes well for NL-only owners. … I don't think it's crazy to consider Rodrigo Lopez versus the Reds, at least not in deep leagues (NL-only, or, say, 16-plus-team mixed). He's a high-risk proposition, sure, but he's a command specialist who has walked two or fewer hitters in every one of his 14 starts between Triple-A Lehigh Valley and the Phillies, he had a 0.86 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in winning his final three starts in the minors, and he'll be facing a Reds offense that has averaged 3.3 runs per game with a .655 OPS in its past 29 contests. … Glen Perkins is 3-1 with a 2.67 ERA and 1.19 WHIP in four starts since returning from the disabled list, but his schedule has been somewhat light (versus Pittsburgh and Houston, at St. Louis and Kansas City). In his final appearance before landing on the DL, he was hammered for six runs on seven hits, two of them home runs, while recording just two outs at Yankee Stadium on May 18. In his career, he's 1-3 with a 7.71 ERA and 1.88 WHIP in four starts versus the Yankees, so approach his start with a degree of caution. The best things that can be said in his defense are that he's a safer pitcher at the Metrodome, where he's 9-5 with a 3.80 ERA and 1.31 WHIP in 21 starts between this and last season, and that his stinker versus the Yankees might have been a direct result of his injury. But it's an absolutely risky venture. … Ervin Santana has shown me positively nothing to convince me he's a trustworthy fantasy choice, especially not versus the Rangers, against whom he has a dreadful track record (6.46 career ERA). Even if you narrow those games against Texas to those played at Angel Stadium, sure, he has four quality starts in five tries, but he also was hammered for eight runs on 10 hits, two of them home runs, in 5 2/3 innings as recently as Sept. 27, 2008 (when he was a heck of a lot healthier than he is today). The Mariners, Orioles and White Sox all have handled him in his home starts in his past three turns there, and this is a loaded lineup. Avoid. … For all of you masochists out there, allow me to remind you that Oliver Perez walked nine batters in 9 1/3 innings in his most recent two rehabilitation starts for Triple-A Buffalo, losing both. Oh, and his Mets ERA before landing on the disabled list -- which was clearly performance- and not injury-related -- was 9.97. Manny Ramirez and his fourth-ranked-versus-lefties (.829 OPS) squad should eat Ollie alive.
Now batting
Hitters' count
• Freddy Sanchez, 2B, Pirates: As you'll see below, he's somewhat at risk to sit, although a healthy Sanchez would warrant your consideration, considering his lifetime .435 batting average (10-for-23) versus Wandy Rodriguez.
• Brian McCann, C, Braves: It's a limited sample size, sure, but his 5-for-9 career performance against Carlos Zambrano warrants your attention, especially in a game to be played at hitter-friendly Wrigley Field.
• Chris Young, OF, Diamondbacks: Once again healthy, Young might be able to get back into his hot streak (having registered a .961 OPS in his past 24 games) versus Chad Gaudin. He's 3-for-7 (.429 BA) with two doubles and one home run against the right-hander, the homer coming June 5 at Petco Park.
• Stephen Drew, SS, Diamondbacks: An even stronger "hot streak" play than Young, Drew has batted .285 with 18 RBIs in 30 games since June 1, and he's 2-for-5 with one double, one home run and two walks in his career against Gaudin.
• Pablo Sandoval, 1B/3B, Giants: Although his sample size is small versus Chris Volstad -- he's 2-for-3 with one home run in his career against the right-hander -- it's also worth noting that Sandoval is a .371 hitter with a 1.007 OPS in 57 career games at AT&T Park. He's also batting .383 with 10 home runs, 26 RBIs and a 1.212 OPS in his past 29 games.
• Jose Lopez, 2B, Mariners: The Mariners as a team clobbered David Hernandez in their June 2 meeting in Baltimore, and Lopez led the way by going 2-for-3 with two doubles and three RBIs versus the right-hander. He's also batting a scorching .338 (27-for-80) with six home runs, 19 RBIs and a .961 OPS in his past 20 games.
• Luke Scott, OF, Orioles: No need to fret about the lefty-versus-lefty matchup against Jason Vargas, and that goes for Aubrey Huff, too. Scott is 2-for-5 with one home run in his career against the southpaw, Huff 3-for-6.
• Placido Polanco, 2B, Tigers: One of the few Detroit hitters who historically has handled Zack Greinke, Polanco is 11-for-32 (.344 BA) lifetime versus the righty.
• Carl Crawford, OF, Rays: No need to fret about his matchup against the left-handed Brian Tallet; he's 3-for-6 with one double, four RBIs and one walk in his career against the Blue Jay southpaw. He also has a steal against Tallet.
• Vernon Wells, OF, Blue Jays: He's 10-for-27 (.370 BA) with four doubles, two home runs and five walks in his career against Scott Kazmir.
• Aaron Hill, 2B, Blue Jays: One of this year's biggest breakthroughs, Hill is 8-for-23 (.348 BA) with one double and one triple in his career against Kazmir.
• Russell Martin, C, Dodgers: Even in the midst of a down year, Martin shapes up nicely versus Oliver Perez. He's 5-for-10 with two walks in his career against the struggling, fresh-off-the-DL left-hander.
• J.J. Hardy, SS, Brewers: He has shown some signs of life in recent weeks, batting .292 (21-for-72) with four home runs and an .819 OPS in his past 18 games, and he's a .500 hitter (7-for-14) in his career against Todd Wellemeyer.
• Ryan Braun, OF, Brewers: Heads up, Baseball Challenge players. Braun is 7-for-13 (.538 BA) with one double and one homer in his career against Wellemeyer.
• Alex Rodriguez, 3B, Yankees: Another shout out to BBC players, as A-Rod is 5-for-9 with two doubles and one home run in his career versus Glen Perkins.
• Melky Cabrera, OF, Yankees: He's 5-for-9 with three RBIs lifetime against Perkins.
• Robinson Cano, 2B, Yankees: He's 5-for-8 with one double and one walk in his career against Perkins.
• Vladimir Guerrero, OF, Angels: He historically has thrived against Rangers pitching, especially Vicente Padilla. Vlad is 20-for-49 (.408 BA) with three doubles, three homers and 12 RBIs in his career against the right-hander.
• Kendry Morales, 1B/OF, Angels: He's 7-for-19 (.368 BA) with two doubles and two home runs in his career against Padilla.
• Michael Young, 3B/SS, Rangers: He's 16-for-41 (.390 BA) with two doubles and two home runs in his career against Ervin Santana, and remember, much of that came at times when Santana was a heck of a lot sharper than he is today.
• Hank Blalock, 1B, Rangers: The Rangers' new first baseman is 11-for-29 (.379 BA) in his career against Santana, with four doubles and three homers.
Pitchers' count
• Nate McLouth, OF, Braves: McLouth has a favorable history versus the Cubs from back during his Pirates days, batting .284 with a .950 OPS in 47 career games against them, but not specifically against Carlos Zambrano. He's a .227 hitter (5-for-22) with no homers and seven strikeouts in his career against "Big Z."
• Mark Reynolds, 3B, Diamondbacks: The All-Star hopeful is unfortunately 1-for-8 with five strikeouts in his career against Chad Gaudin.
• Magglio Ordonez, OF, Tigers: His seasonlong funk won't see any end versus Zack Greinke; he's 5-for-35 (.143 BA) with only one extra-base hit, a double, and seven strikeouts in his career against the right-hander.
• Curtis Granderson, OF, Tigers: He's 4-for-29 (.138 BA) with seven strikeouts in his career against Greinke, albeit with one triple and one home run.
• Ramon Hernandez, C, Reds: He's 1-for-8 (.125 BA) in his career against Rodrigo Lopez, including two strikeouts.
• Jason Giambi, 1B, Athletics: Always play the track record against a knuckleballer, and Giambi, unfortunately, is a .163 hitter (15-for-92) with four home runs and 21 strikeouts in his career against Tim Wakefield. He's only getting worse against Wakefield as the years go by; since 2003, Giambi is 3-for-43 (.070 BA) versus the righty, although oddly, all three hits were home runs.
• Orlando Cabrera, SS, Athletics: Another Oakland hitter who doesn't like facing Wakefield, Cabrera is 4-for-24 (.167 BA) in his career against the knuckleballer.
• James Loney, 1B, Dodgers: Shame on you, James, for having such trouble against Oliver Perez over the years. Loney is 1-for-8 against Perez in his career, with zero extra-base hits and three strikeouts.
• Mike Cameron, OF, Brewers: He's hitless in 11 career at-bats against Todd Wellemeyer, including three strikeouts.
• Bill Hall, 3B, Brewers: He's hitless in 10 career at-bats against Wellemeyer.
• Corey Hart, OF, Brewers: OK, so he's not hitless in his career against Wellemeyer, but is 1-for-11 really all that much better?
• Denard Span, OF, Twins: He has one hit in seven at-bats in his career against A.J. Burnett, and in the other six at-bats, he struck out each time.
• Michael Cuddyer, OF, Twins: He's 2-for-10 (.200 BA) in his career against Burnett, with one double and five strikeouts.
• Travis Hafner, DH, Indians: He's 3-for-27 (.111 BA) in his career against Jose Conteras, so don't be surprised if he sits this one out entirely.
• Victor Martinez, C, Indians: Contreras is one of the few pitchers who routinely has had his number; he's 4-for-28 (.143) in his career against the righty.
• Mike Napoli, C, Angels: He has all sorts of problems with Vicente Padilla, going 4-for-21 (.190 BA) with nine strikeouts in his career against the right-hander.
If you're hardcore
• Tony Gwynn Jr., OF, Padres: The trade of Scott Hairston only helps Gwynn in terms of playing time, and the guy is 3-for-3 with one double and one walk in his career against Max Scherzer. He's also a sneaky source of stolen bases.
• Aaron Rowand, OF, Giants: He's 3-for-3 with one double in his career against Chris Volstad, but more importantly, he's a .306 hitter (19-for-62) with three home runs and a .909 OPS in his past 16 games.
• Nolan Reimold, OF, Orioles: Slumping or not, Reimold was 2-for-4 with one home run versus Jason Vargas during past meetings on June 3 and 9, and he's a .293 hitter with an .869 OPS versus lefties this season. Vargas, meanwhile, has allowed a .283 batting average and 20 home runs to right-handed hitters in his career.
• Jonny Gomes, OF, Reds: Dusty Baker has to be aware that Gomes is a lifetime .471 hitter (8-for-17) with two home runs against Rodrigo Lopez, dating back to their days as American League East foes. Expect Gomes to get a rare start against a right-hander, manning left field.
• Mark Ellis, 2B, Athletics: He's a lifetime .348 hitter (8-for-23) with one double and one home run versus Tim Wakefield, and he's batting a respectable .269 with two home runs and an .873 OPS in eight games since returning from the DL.
• Ryan Church, OF, Mets: He's 2-for-5 in his career against Hiroki Kuroda, both of those hits home runs. Of course, Church has only one home run in his first 29 games at Citi Field, so don't expect any multihomer efforts this time around.
• Mark Loretta, 2B, Dodgers: I wonder whether the Dodgers might think about tossing him in there at second base against Oliver Perez, seeing as Loretta is 3-for-7 with one home run in his career against the left-hander.
• Chris Duncan, 1B/OF, Cardinals: He's 6-for-13 (.462 BA) with one double and two walks in his career against Jeff Suppan.
Triage
Injury list: Out
• Jeff Bailey, 1B, Red Sox (ankle, 15-day DL)
• Henry Blanco, C, Padres (hamstring, 15-day DL): His absence leaves the team precariously thin behind the plate; Eliezer Alfonso is now the team's starter.
• David Eckstein, 2B/SS, Padres (hamstring, 15-day DL)
• Kelly Johnson, 2B, Braves (wrist, 15-day DL): Martin Prado, a .311 hitter in his career, is a more-than-adequate fill-in for the disappointing Johnson.
• Fernando Martinez, OF, Mets (knee): Much of the speculation in the New York media suggests he'll be either placed on the DL or demoted to the minors.
• Chris Ray, RP, Orioles (shoulder, 15-day DL)
Injury list: Day-to-day
• Mark DeRosa, 2B/3B/OF, Cardinals (wrist)
• Mark Kotsay, 1B/OF, Red Sox (calf)
• Vicente Padilla, SP, Rangers (shoulder): He's expected to return to the rotation Wednesday, but his low ranking is a direct result of his health risk.
• Dustin Pedroia, 2B, Red Sox (personal): His absence Monday was related to his wife's pregnancy; she's less than two months from her due date. It's unclear how much time he'll miss, but consider his status day-to-day.
• Hanley Ramirez, SS, Marlins (hip): Was likely to return Tuesday
• Freddy Sanchez, 2B, Pirates (back)
• Mike Sweeney, DH, Mariners (back)
Weather concerns
• Wednesday's schedule is chock full of weatherproof affairs: Pirates-Astros, Padres-Diamondbacks, Orioles-Mariners, Blue Jays-Rays, Cardinals-Brewers and Yankees-Twins. Toronto is the only team playing on the road that calls a weatherproof stadium its home, and it plays a game in a dome, at Tampa Bay.
• When will we ever be free of bad weather in the northeast? Fortunately, only one city faces a noticeable threat of rain Wednesday, and it's Boston (Athletics-Red Sox), which has a 60 percent chance of showers and/or a thunderstorm. Rain should be an issue mostly after 10 p.m. ET.
• Wind might affect the Marlins-Giants game, as west winds of 13-16 mph are expected, gusting as high as 21 mph.
Tristan H. Cockcroft is a fantasy baseball analyst for ESPN.com and a two-time champion of the League of Alternative Baseball Reality (LABR) experts league. You can e-mail him here.
