Cueto sharp since return from DL
It seems teams are becoming more diligent in protecting their young pitchers, with most teams doing what they can to limit the innings of their investments no matter how well they are pitching. Mat Latos is the latest casualty; normally Friday would mark his spot in the rotation, but he made his final start of the season last week against the Dodgers. The 21-year-old showed a lot of promise, posting a 4.62 ERA and 1.30 WHIP in 10 starts, although with a 7.71 ERA in his past five starts, maybe he was tiring down the stretch. Nonetheless it's a blow to fantasy owners, as Edward Mujica will now take Latos' slot in the rotation.
Fortunately you don't have to worry about Dusty Baker showing such restraint, and the Reds don't seem to be prepared to shut down 23-year-old Johnny Cueto any time soon. He already has 321 1/3 career major league innings and landed on the disabled list with shoulder inflammation in his pitching arm, but has come back to allow two runs in 11 innings. As long as he's putting up numbers, his owners won't particularly care, but it's an interesting contrast in strategy for a team that is going nowhere this season.
For starters
Starting pitcher rankings for Sept. 11, 2009
| Name | |||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  | Zack Greinke | R | 13-8 | 2.22 | 1.08 | 9.53 | .625 | @CLE | .766 | 78.5% |
| 2 |  | Jon Lester | L | 12-7 | 3.44 | 1.22 | 10.16 | .660 | TB | .788 | 76.9% |
| 3 |  | Rich Harden | R | 9-8 | 4.10 | 1.30 | 10.88 | .735 | CIN | .696 | 79.6% |
| 4 |  | Matt Cain | R | 13-4 | 2.51 | 1.16 | 6.90 | .658 | LAD | .757 | 81.0% |
| 5 |  | Josh Johnson | R | 14-4 | 3.04 | 1.11 | 7.76 | .614 | WAS | .753 | 78.4% |
| 6 |  | Johnny Cueto | R | 9-10 | 4.39 | 1.33 | 7.07 | .779 | @CHC | .743 | 78.1% |
| 7 |  | Andy Pettitte | L | 13-6 | 4.10 | 1.35 | 7.01 | .717 | BAL | .748 | 82.0% |
| 8 |  | Jorge De La Rosa | L | 14-9 | 4.51 | 1.41 | 9.13 | .769 | @SD | .703 | 78.4% |
| 9 |  | Joel Pineiro | R | 14-9 | 3.28 | 1.11 | 4.26 | .655 | ATL | .741 | 80.9% |
| 10 |  | Hiroki Kuroda | R | 5-6 | 4.15 | 1.17 | 6.36 | .674 | @SF | .698 | 79.1% |
| 11 |  | Gavin Floyd | R | 11-9 | 3.84 | 1.21 | 7.78 | .671 | @LAA | .796 | 81.8% |
| 12 |  | Cole Hamels | L | 8-9 | 4.32 | 1.29 | 7.82 | .767 | NYM | .728 | 83.0% |
| 13 |  | Nick Blackburn | R | 9-10 | 4.16 | 1.41 | 4.00 | .775 | OAK | .714 | 81.6% |
| 14 |  | Jair Jurrjens | R | 10-10 | 2.93 | 1.25 | 6.37 | .687 | @STL | .753 | 81.3% |
| 15 |  | James Shields | R | 9-10 | 4.02 | 1.33 | 6.49 | .774 | @BOS | .804 | 79.5% |
| 16 |  | Joe Saunders | L | 12-7 | 4.97 | 1.48 | 4.91 | .817 | CHW | .749 | 80.9% |
| 17 |  | Justin Masterson | R | 4-7 | 4.40 | 1.45 | 7.87 | .736 | KC | .715 | 80.5% |
| 18 |  | Doug Davis | L | 7-12 | 3.81 | 1.42 | 6.63 | .746 | MIL | .760 | 77.6% |
| 19 |  | Charlie Morton | R | 3-7 | 5.43 | 1.65 | 5.82 | .813 | @HOU | .724 | 82.1% |
| 20 |  | Braden Looper | R | 11-6 | 4.77 | 1.42 | 4.66 | .821 | @ARI | .746 | 77.2% |
| 21 |  | Kevin Millwood | R | 10-9 | 3.77 | 1.37 | 5.49 | .757 | SEA | .712 | 80.4% |
| 22 |  | Bud Norris | R | 4-3 | 6.05 | 1.63 | 8.38 | .853 | PIT | .713 | 79.3% |
| 23 |  | Clayton Mortensen | R | 0-2 | 9.00 | 1.86 | 5.14 | .995 | @MIN | .763 | 81.4% |
| 24 |  | Brian Tallet | L | 6-9 | 5.31 | 1.51 | 6.67 | .778 | @DET | .747 | 79.5% |
| 25 |  | Nate Robertson | L | 1-1 | 5.40 | 1.58 | 7.11 | .701 | TOR | .761 | 82.0% |
| 26 |  | J.D. Martin | R | 3-4 | 4.35 | 1.37 | 4.18 | .838 | @FLA | .758 | 77.8% |
| 27 |  | Nelson Figueroa | R | 2-4 | 4.74 | 1.63 | 8.29 | .875 | @PHI | .783 | 79.0% |
| 28 |  | Edward Mujica | R | 3-4 | 3.51 | 1.21 | 7.01 | .708 | COL | .791 | 77.0% |
| 29 |  | Lucas French | L | 4-5 | 5.05 | 1.68 | 5.59 | .876 | @TEX | .781 | 76.9% |
| 30 |  | Chris Tillman | R | 1-3 | 4.66 | 1.47 | 4.66 | .883 | @NYY | .841 | 82.1% |
Selected notes: Since he threw 114 pitches versus the Rockies on Aug. 14, the Marlins have been careful with Josh Johnson. The 25-year-old ace has not tossed more than 100 pitches in four starts since, averaging 91 pitches and less than 5 2/3 innings per start. Considering he's coming back from Tommy John surgery and has set a career high in innings pitched, it's a good idea for the Marlins to play it safe, but he loses upside if he's unable to pitch deeper into games. … Johnny Cueto has looked dominant since returning from the disabled list, fanning 14 batters in 11 innings while allowing just six hits. The 8.18 ERA he posted in July and August now looks like an outlier, and he's a must-start against the Cubs. … With 21 walks in his past 37 1/3 innings, command is still a major problem for Jorge De La Rosa. But with 42 K's in that same span, it's easy to overlook that in most matchups. Despite a 5.06 ERA in three starts against the Padres this year, he still gets a strong recommendation. All three of the starts came near the beginning of the season, when De La Rosa was struggling, yet he still managed a .211 batting average against. … Thanks to a six-inning, four-run performance against the Pirates, Joel Pineiro allowed four runs or more in consecutive starts for the first time since May 8-13. It's not much to worry about, though -- when you pitch to contact as much as Pineiro, you're going to get touched up every now and then. He should be fine when he faces the Braves at home, where he has a 2.62 ERA and 1.02 WHIP in 12 starts. … If Gavin Floyd could cut back on the home runs -- he's allowed seven in his past five starts -- he could be dominating, with an impressive 34-to-7 strikeout-to-walk ratio during that same span. Floyd is pitching so well that he's still a good option against the Angels, who currently rank third in the majors in OPS, and fortunately Los Angeles doesn't hit a ton of homers, ranking in the middle of the pack. … Cole Hamels seems to have found his groove, with a 2.57 ERA and 28 strikeouts in his past four starts (28 innings). Unfortunately, he's never been good against the Mets, with a career 4.50 ERA and 1.63 WHIP, allowing 10 hits and four runs in five innings against them on Aug. 21 -- and that was back when Jeff Francoeur was batting cleanup. That makes throwing him out there pretty risky. … Jair Jurrjens hasn't pitched as well as the 3.68 ERA he's posted since August would suggest. He's allowed six home runs in 44 innings and allowed 62 baserunners, making a road start against the streaking Cardinals a dangerous proposition. … James Shields has allowed two runs in each of his past three starts, and his case of gopher-itis is a large reason why he's had a 5.85 ERA in those outings. He'll need to cut down on the long balls if he wants any success against the Red Sox, who are one of two teams with a .800 team OPS and rank fourth in the majors in home runs. Considering Shields has allowed four homers in three starts against the Red Sox this season, chances are he'll get roughed up a bit. … With five runs allowed in three of his past four starts, Kevin Millwood has continued to look like he's falling apart. With a 4.71 ERA and 1.60 WHIP since the break, there's not much to like, and in two previous starts against the Mariners he has a 6.08 ERA.
Now batting
Hitters' count:
• Aramis Ramirez, 3B, Cubs: The slugger is only 6-for-36 (.166) over his past nine games, but a matchup versus Johnny Cueto could put him back in his comfort zone. Ramirez has gone 4-for-14 (.286) against Cueto, but three of those hits have gone for extra bases, including two homers.
• Geovany Soto, C, Cubs: Like his teammate, Soto has also enjoyed success hitting against Cueto, racking up five hits -- including two doubles, a triple and a home run -- in 14 at-bats. He's still splitting time with Koyie Hill behind the plate, but with three doubles in his past two games and his history of success against Cueto, it makes sense for him to earn the start behind the plate.
• Marco Scutaro, 2B/3B/SS, Blue Jays: With two doubles and two home runs in just 16 career at-bats versus Nate Robertson, Scutaro has a good chance of snapping out of his recent slump. It's rare to see Scutaro sport an .813 slugging percentage against any pitcher, so you'll want him in your lineup.
• J.D. Drew, OF, Red Sox: Another favorable matchup is lined up for Drew when he steps into the batter's box against James Shields, against whom he's gone 4-for-8 this season. With two doubles and a home run, he's hit Shields hard, increasing his career average against Shields to .391 in 23 at-bats.
• Stephen Drew, SS, Diamondbacks: A ton of positive indicators are in Drew's favor Friday, beginning with the pitcher he'll face, Braden Looper, who has allowed 21 home runs and a .563 slugging percentage to lefties this season. Indeed, he's previously gone deep against Looper, and is 2-for-5 overall. Drew is also a much better hitter at home, where he hits .297 with a .846 OPS.
• Andre Ethier, OF, Dodgers: While Ethier hasn't hit for much power versus Matt Cain, with just two extra-base hits in 30 at-bats, that's easy to overlook when Ethier is batting .567 off him.
Pitchers' count:
• Brandon Phillips, 2B, Reds: When Rich Harden is on, few right-handers have success batting against him (.218 average against). Phillips is no exception, with just a single to his name in 10 at-bats lifetime against Harden, striking out three times.
• Kelly Shoppach, C, Indians: The catcher is still looking for his first hit against Zack Greinke; not just this season, but in his career, as he's gone hitless in 11 at-bats. In fact, just not striking out would be a good start, as he's gone down swinging seven times.
• Jhonny Peralta, SS/3B, Indians: Peralta entered the season 7-for-22 (.318) against Greinke, with a couple of extra-base hits, but he's been held without a hit against the Cy Young version of Greinke, going 0-for-10 with three K's.
• Jacoby Ellsbury, OF, Red Sox: Few pitchers have been more difficult to run on than James Shields: He's only been tested five times, and two have been thrown out. That means Ellsbury, who was caught stealing in his only attempt this season, has to provide production with his bat, but he hasn't had much success against James, hitting .190 in 21 career at-bats.
• Mark DeRosa, 2B/3B/OF, Cardinals: A .252 hitter against right-handers, DeRosa isn't a wise play against the likes of Jair Jurrjens, who has held righties to a .221 average in 340 at-bats.
• Adrian Gonzalez, 1B, Padres: Gonzalez has two things working against him: a matchup against a lefty, since he loses 80 points of average when facing left-handers, and playing at home, where he's only hitting .230. Considering De La Rosa is much tougher on left-handed batters than most pitchers (.571 OPS allowed, 52 strikeouts against 26 hits allowed), Gonzalez isn't a good play.
• Orlando Hudson, 2B, Dodgers: With just two hits in 21 career at-bats against Matt Cain -- singles at that -- make sure to leave Hudson on your bench Friday.
If you're hardcore
• Melvin Mora, 3B, Orioles: Don't look now but Mora has risen from the dead, hitting .341 in his past 13 games, chipping in three home runs. Even better, he's hit .316 in his career versus Andy Pettitte, and went deep against him Aug. 31.
• Mike Jacobs, 1B, Royals: Jacobs has been brutal this year, once again struggling to keep an OBP above .300, but he looks to be heating up, going 9-for-24 (.375) with a homer and three doubles in his past six games. He gets an awesome matchup versus Justin Masterson, who is awful against left-handers (.330 average against) and whom Jacobs is already 3-for-4 with a home run against this season.
• Cody Ross, OF, Marlins: It's rare to find a right-handed pitcher Ross does well against, but Ross is 3-for-5 with a couple of doubles and a home run against J.D. Martin. Martin allows the league to slug over .500 against him, including 11 home runs allowed in 51 2/3 innings, so Ross could have a big game.
• Marlon Byrd, OF, Rangers: Byrd is 14-for-26 (.538) during a seven-game hitting streak, and has swatted two home runs in his past three games. Expect him to continue the hot hitting against Luke French, who has allowed an awful .310 AVG/.379 OBP/.549 SLG line to right-handed hitters.
• Mark Ellis, 2B, Athletics: One of the few bright spots for the A's, Ellis is hitting .337 since July 26. If that's not enough, he's also 3-for-6 with a double and a home run against Nick Blackburn, and has gone 7-for-18 with a home run and two doubles in his past four games, showing no signs of slowing down.
Triage
Injury list: Out
• Carlos Pena, 1B, Rays (60-day DL, fractured left index and middle finger)
• Gary Sheffield, OF, Mets (back; limited to pinch-hitting)
• Alfonso Soriano, OF, Cubs (knee)
• Huston Street, RP, Rockies (biceps): Street is doubtful to pitch this weekend, according to pitching coach Bob Apodaca, especially considering how well Franklin Morales has pitched in his stead.
• Randy Wolf, SP, Dodgers (elbow): Wolf felt a twinge in his elbow and will have his start skipped. It's not expected to be a long-term concern, and Hiroki Kuroda will fill in for him.
Injury list: Day-to-day
• Gordon Beckham, 3B/SS, White Sox (oblique)
• Casey Blake, 1B/3B, Dodgers (hamstring)
• Milton Bradley, OF, Cubs (legs): Bradley was pulled Tuesday for precautionary reasons and missed Wednesday due to a scheduled day off. He should be back soon.
• Mike Cameron, OF, Brewers (hamstring)
• Josh Hamilton, OF, Rangers (back): Hamilton has been prepping for a Friday return but there is now some doubt he'll be ready, although he may return later in the weekend.
• Jeremy Hermida, OF, Marlins (oblique)
• Aaron Hill, 2B, Blue Jays (personal): Hill is expected to be away from the team until Friday, after his wife delivered the couple's first child.
• Kevin Kouzmanoff, 3B, Padres (calf): Manager Bud Black said the team hopes Kouzmanoff can return "within a week" after straining his calf Tuesday night, which implies he might be out for the weekend.
• Ian Stewart, 2B/3B, Rockies (back): Both Stewart and his teammate Tulowitzki are dealing with back injuries, but it's not a serious concern in either case; both could return as soon as Thursday.
• Troy Tulowitzki, SS, Rockies (back)
• B.J. Upton, OF, Rays (ankle): Upton returned Wednesday but was removed in the middle of the game as his ankle was giving him trouble. Expect Upton to take his time before attempting to give it another go.
• Eugenio Velez, 2B/OF, Giants (finger)
• Michael Young, 3B/SS, Rangers (hamstring): Young has been working out recently and could be ready to return as soon as Friday.
Weather concerns
• The Pirates-Astros, Athletics-Twins and Brewers-Diamondbacks all have the benefit of being weatherproof.
• Both Boston and Philadelphia have about a 50-50 chance of showers, and it only gets worse in New York, where a delay and/or rainout looks possible given the 70 percent probability of rain. Further south, thunderstorms are likely in Miami, with a 50 to 60 percent chance of precipitation.
• Thunderstorms may crop up in Arlington (40 percent chance), too, not to mention possible showers in Cleveland (also 40 percent). Don't be surprised if a few doubleheaders are needed to make up some games with all this rain scheduled.
Adam Madison is a fantasy baseball analyst for ESPN.com.
