May 12, 2008, 4:59 PM

Quintong: Fun with ownership numbers

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Quintong By James Quintong
ESPN.com
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Whether you like it or not, the actions of you, the fantasy player, can have ramifications beyond your individual league. Look no further than the ownership percentage on every player card here at ESPN.com. Not only do you get a player's critical stats, such as ERA or home runs, but you also can see how highly he's regarded in the fantasy world by seeing what percentage of ESPN standard (10-team, 5x5) leagues he's owned in.

Obviously, these numbers are a useful tool, or else they wouldn't be displayed in such a prominent place. They can help you decide whether to pick up or drop a player. For instance, if you're struggling to figure out which player to drop from your roster, finding the guy with the lowest ownership rate could be the tiebreaker. Conversely, finding the player with the highest ownership percentage is an easy way to spot free agents on the waiver wire.

Of course, while the ownership numbers are a great tool, they're also not infallible. Popular opinion doesn't mean it's correct. Sometimes standard-league owners are too slow to pick up rising players or dump slumping stars. And other times, well, I'm not sure what people are thinking; maybe some of 'em have kept things on autopilot all season long.

Nevertheless, playing in ESPN leagues of various sizes exposes you to all sorts of strange ownership numbers and trends. For instance, pickups are locked in a handful of our preseason mock drafts; thus, guys like Nate McLouth and Cliff Lee, who would otherwise be "100 percent" guys, are still officially free agents in those leagues, while others like Bronson Arroyo and Barry Zito unfortunately take up space on a roster. Meanwhile, in an 18-team mixed league, it's rare to see any hitters above 1 percent or pitchers above 2 or 3 percent on the waiver wire, and plenty of us have our 0.1 percent-type players to round out the roster.

So let's look at some interesting trends in league ownership numbers. (Percentages as of Monday morning.)

Recent major movers

Ryan Franklin, RP, Cardinals (86.5 percent): Coming into the weekend, Franklin was owned in just less than 3 percent of ESPN leagues. Heading into Sunday, that number jumped to just more than 59 percent. Today, it's up to 86.5 percent. Congratulations, Ryan Franklin, you've just won the unknown-reliever-turned-closer sweepstakes! The number will keep rising if he can get some more saves while Jason Isringhausen is temporarily benched as the closer. You probably won't have many more chances to get him, though. Similarly, Russ Springer had 0.0 percent ownership heading into the weekend, but his numbers have shot up to 10 percent since he's supposedly in the running for saves as well.

Salomon Torres
Brett David/US PresswireSuddenly, Salomon Torres is popular now that Eric Gagne has been pulled from Milwaukee's closer role.
Salomon Torres/Guillermo Mota, RPs, Brewers (38.5/23.8 percent): With Eric Gagne out of the closer's job for now, Torres and Mota are the current speculative plays for saves in Milwaukee, and their ownership numbers have jumped about 18 percent each in the past day alone. Both having closing experience, but it's worth noting that David Riske is at only 3.4 percent because he supposedly isn't in the chase for saves.

And for what it's worth, both deposed closers Isringhausen and Gagne dropped below 100 percent ownership rate over the weekend. Guess people aren't using their bench even though it wouldn't be surprising to see Izzy and Gagne get their jobs back later this season.

He's not owned in 100 percent of leagues?

Jorge Posada, C, Yankees (88.0 percent): Oddly enough, there are fewer than 10 catchers owned in 100 percent of ESPN leagues, and the injured Posada isn't one of them. Now, to be fair, standard leagues start only one catcher and have only one DL slot and three bench spots, so space for injured players isn't exactly plentiful. But while many owners are using DL spots for guys like John Lackey, apparently, some people feel Posada isn't worth such a slot. If you play in one of those leagues in which he's available, you might as well get him and stash him on your DL.

He's owned in 100 percent of leagues?

Robinson Cano, 2B, Yankees (100 percent): Given the fickle nature of many fantasy owners when it comes to dropping players (see Vernon Wells dropping from the 100 percent club after his recent injury), it's a tad surprising that the struggling Cano is on 100 percent of rosters. His recent hot streak probably bumped him back up to 100 percent, even though his season totals still look pretty bad. Sometimes you just have to ride out the storm, even if he has to ride the bench. Other struggling stars on the 100 percent list: Travis Hafner and Eric Byrnes.

Still not believing? (Top player on the season-long Player Rater not owned in 100 percent of leagues)

Ryan Ludwick, OF, Cardinals (96.4 percent): Well, it has taken awhile for people to believe he was for real, especially because he has been part of a platoon all season long. While I think he's due to slow down a little, he's still worth having on a roster, but possibly as a guy to sell high.

Other hitters deserving of more ownership: Jack Cust, A's (9.2 percent; hitting .448 with three homers in May), Emil Brown, A's (85.1 percent; not everyone buying the 33 RBIs); Milton Bradley, Rangers (61.8 percent, but numbers rapidly rising as he gets healthier).

Aaron Cook
Doug Pensinger/Getty ImagesHis ownership indicates clearly indicate Aaron Cook is being given the "matchups start" treatment.
Aaron Cook, P, Rockies (82.2 percent): The wins are high, the ERA and WHIP are low, but so are the strikeouts, which is why he's not getting as much love as he might deserve. And given his recent drop in ownership despite a win, Cook is being treated as a matchups guy by some, which is not surprising for a Rockies pitcher.

Other highly ranked pitchers still deserving of more ownership: Johnny Cueto, Reds (87.4 percent and dropping after bad start at Shea; he's looking like a guy to start primarily at home), Greg Maddux, Padres (44.7 percent; he has been good not great, but still is worth at least a roster spot in mixed leagues); Ted Lilly, Cubs (52.2 percent; he's looking like he's getting over his slow start).

What about setup men?

Santiago Casilla, P, A's (61.4 percent): Casilla finally gave up his first run of the season Saturday, but thanks to his great start of the season, he's one of the few setup men owned in more than 50 percent of ESPN standard leagues. While Carlos Marmol is owned in 100 percent of leagues, Casilla is now part of select company that includes Joba Chamberlain (99.9 percent), Jonathan Broxton (63.4 percent) and Hideki Okajima (84.2 percent). Even top setup guys like Scot Shields (29.1 percent) and Heath Bell (23.8 percent) don't have that honor. It's hard for even the best setup men to get a lot of attention in ESPN standard leagues because they're not getting saves or wins on a regular basis and don't pitch enough innings to make a major dent in Ks. Their value only rises when they get in the saves mix (see Franklin, Torres, etc.), so for someone like Casilla to be owned in this many leagues this fast is a testament to his ability this year.

Drafting off last year's stats, eh?

Chris Ray, P, Orioles (0.3 percent): Yes, he saved 16 games last year, but he's probably not playing this year after undergoing Tommy John surgery. So why is he owned in 0.3 percent of ESPN leagues, given that most of them are not keeper leagues? Is this a case of someone sorting by last year's stats and picking up the guy with the most saves? Even when Ray returns, George Sherrill has established himself as the O's closer. Sure, you can stash him on the DL, but why?

The speed dilemma

Of the 12 players with at least 10 stolen bases, only nine are owned in 100 percent of leagues. While Joey Gathright is going to struggle to get attention, it is interesting that guys like Juan Pierre (98.1 percent) and Willy Taveras (98.9 percent) aren't owned in every league and Michael Bourn just got back to 100 percent today. Sure, there are questions about things like batting average and playing time, but every 5x5 owner needs speed, right?

He'll play this year, won't he? (Veterans)

Barry Bonds, OF, free agent (2.1 percent): Some people are still holding out hope that someone will sign him. That explains the 2.1 percent ownership rate. Sure, he drew enough late-round attention at the draft, but is he really worth a bench spot at this point? What's interesting is that while Bonds is still owned in a number of leagues, both Mike Piazza and Roger Clemens, whose status for this season is also unclear, are not owned in ESPN leagues. However, Kenny Lofton is owned in 0.1 percent of leagues.

Use the new Trading Block link on your fantasy baseball team page to communicate your trade desires with other owners in your league!
He'll play this year, won't he? (Prospects)

Jay Bruce, OF, Reds (2.4 percent): It's still unclear whether he'll reach the majors this year despite the struggles of Corey Patterson & Co. in center, but there are still enough people holding out hope that he'll produce like Joey Votto, who has now reached 100 percent ownership. Some owners are also holding out hope for Chase Headley (2.4 percent) but not Colby Rasmus (0.1 percent).

Clayton Kershaw, P, Dodgers (14.6 percent): With speculation that he could join the rotation this week, his ownership numbers are rising steadily. He has been dominant in the minors this season, and lots of people are trying to get him ahead of time. For what it's worth, Max Scherzer (98.0) is close to being owned in all leagues after just a couple of outings.

Why is he still on your roster?

Jose A. Reyes, C, Mets (0.1 percent): Yes, that's the catcher, not the shortstop. This Reyes played four games at catcher for the Cubs in 2006 but is still listed in the game -- and is somehow owned in 0.1 percent of leagues. That means there are some of you out there who think you got a steal by drafting Jose Reyes in a late round. Wrong guy. His name and his 0.1 percent ownership always screams out at me, too, when I peruse the very sparse waiver wire in my 18-team mixed league. So if you still have this Reyes, you can drop him.

James Quintong is an editor for ESPN Fantasy.