Quintong: All-Star leaders versus Player Rater
I've always been fascinated by the voting for the All-Star Game starters. Obviously, it's a popularity contest that usually favors established stars and players on higher-profile teams. However, with the rise of Internet voting, you do have a lot of voters actually basing their decisions on statistics. That's a good thing, but do the current voting results jibe with actual statistical performance?
Let's take a look at the current leaders in recent All-Star voting results -- AL as of June 9 and NL as of June 3 -- and compare them with the leaders atop our season-long Player Rater as of June 9. You might even want to use this as a guide to filling out your ballot since there's still time to get in your votes.
Catcher
Voting leader: Jason Varitek, Red Sox
Player Rater leader: Joe Mauer, Twins
As you can see from the rest of the voting results, Red Sox Nation has really thrown its support behind its guys, as seen with Varitek leading the way here despite pedestrian numbers that rank him 17th among all catchers on the Player Rater. Meanwhile, Mauer is among the AL leaders again in hitting but sits in second in voting. He's by far the top AL catcher, but trails the top NL guys such as Brian McCann and Bengie Molina by a bit.
First Base
Voting leader: Kevin Youkilis, Red Sox
Player Rater leader: Youkilis
Surprise, surprise. Youkilis is indeed the highest-rated AL first baseman (but fifth overall), a bit ahead of Justin Morneau, who is also second in voting. Youkilis has been known to get off to fast starts, and this year is no exception. Heck, he's even got three steals. The Boston faithful should lift Youkilis into a starting spot in the Midsummer Classic, but given that he's a .249 hitter after the break, fantasy owners may have to start trying to sell high on him.
Second Base
Player Rater leader: Ian Kinsler, Rangers
Pedroia has the look of a guy who's a far better player in reality than in fantasy. He's the 13th-rated second baseman overall, compared to Kinsler, who's second overall at the position (and fifth overall among all players on the Player Rater). Voters have now started to pay attention to Kinsler as he moved from fourth to second in the balloting this week. Kinsler is already close to matching his career-best 23 steals from last year, all while hitting his share of homers, scoring a ton of runs and keeping that average around .300. Sure, Kinsler has been helped by playing in cozy Arlington, but only two of his eight homers are at home.
Shortstop
Voting leader: Derek Jeter, Yankees
Player Rater leader: Michael Young, Rangers
No surprise that Jeter leads in voting, but he hasn't lived up to expectations fantasy-wise this season (just 13th among all shortstops). Still, he'll run away with the voting. Meanwhile, Young, who often gets chosen as the mandatory Rangers All-Star, has risen to the top of a somewhat underwhelming AL shortstop field. Young is hitting around .300 and scoring a ton of runs, thanks in large part to teammate Josh Hamilton. Young's numbers are similar to Kinsler's, except for all those steals.
Third Base
Voting leader: Alex Rodriguez, Yankees
Player Rater leader: Joe Crede, White Sox
Actually, Youkilis is the highest-rated third baseman as well, based on current ESPN eligibility settings, but Crede's recent power surge lifts him slightly ahead of A-Rod. However, Crede, who is fourth in voting at the hot corner, ranks just seventh at the position on the Player Rater. It does say something that A-Rod missed a couple of weeks with a quad injury and has been good not great when healthy, yet he's still among the top-ranked AL third basemen. There are lots of well-known names at third (Mike Lowell, Miguel Cabrera, Scott Rolen), but very few worth the votes so far.
Outfield
Voting leaders: Manny Ramirez, Red Sox; Josh Hamilton, Rangers; Ichiro Suzuki, Mariners
Player Rater leaders: Hamilton; Jacoby Ellsbury, Red Sox; Milton Bradley, Rangers
Hamilton has proved he's for real, and even more encouraging is that All-Star voters are noticing, which can't be said about teammates Young, Kinsler or Bradley. Steals are the main reason Ellsbury ranks so high, but he's not on the official ballot (Coco Crisp has the other Red Sox
outfield spot, along with Ramirez and J.D. Drew), so you'll have to write him in.
There are a ton of solid candidates in the AL outfield, with the order of the top players behind Hamilton changing almost every day. Manny and Ichiro are definitely in that mix (although Ichiro's sub-.300 average does concern many), but so are B.J. Upton, Carlos Quentin (who's also not on the ballot) and the surging Johnny Damon. Hamilton's vote surge hopefully means another deserving player like Quentin, Bradley or Ellsbury will get to earn his way as a reserve.
Designated Hitter
Voting leader: David Ortiz, Red Sox
Player Rater leader: Ortiz
It's been a weak year for DHs, so much so that Big Papi was awful for such a long time to start the season, but it's enough to lead at the position despite his current wrist injury that may prevent him from playing the game. However, Hideki Matsui is close on his heels on the Player Rater thanks to being one of the AL leaders in hitting. Matsui may not overtake Ortiz in voting, but he could be the highest-ranked DH relatively soon.
Catcher
Voting leader: Geovany Soto, Cubs
Player Rater leader: Brian McCann, Braves
Soto has gotten a lot of love from the Wrigley faithful by helping spark the offense as a rookie, and he's my No. 1 catcher in last week's re-rankings, but he's fourth among catchers on the Player Rater. McCann, second in total voting, is the top guy overall thanks to a great all-around game. Bengie Molina, who actually is hitting like the cleanup guy the Giants have made him, is second on the Player Rater, followed by Russell Martin, who is also playing well, but not running as much as last year. There will be a deserving catcher snubbed from this group.
First Base
Player Rater leader: Berkman
When you race out to the hot start Berkman has, it's hard not to vote for him, even when you have Albert Pujols putting up his usual big numbers. Berkman may need to keep up his sick stats, though, if he wants to earn the starting nod over the ever-consistent Pujols. Adrian Gonzalez also warrants mentioning as the next guy behind Berkman and Pujols on the Player Rater, but he's not in the top five in voting, thanks in part to higher-profile guys on the ballot like Ryan Howard, Derrek Lee and Prince Fielder.
Second Base
Voting leader: Chase Utley, Phillies
Player Rater leader: Utley
Yeah, that's a no-brainer, given that he's breaking home run records set by Rogers Hornsby. He'll run away with this vote. Dan Uggla is easily the next-best NL second baseman on the Player Rater (and the eighth-ranked player overall on the Rater), but he's just fourth in the balloting.
Shortstop
Voting leader: Hanley Ramirez, Marlins
Player Rater leader: Ramirez
He's in a dogfight with Miguel Tejada (who's struggled badly this month) for the fans' vote, and he's neck-and-neck with the surging Jose Reyes (third in voting) for the Player Rater lead. Playing in Florida isn't helping his cause for votes (see teammate Uggla), but he's close to performing at the level fantasy owners expected at the start of the season. Ramirez is going to the Midseason Classic, but will it be as a starter or a reserve?
Third Base
Voting leader: Chipper Jones, Braves
Player Rater leader: Jones
When you're a popular veteran who's hitting well above .400 at this point in the year, you're probably going to be leading in voting. However, the quad injury does merit watching. Ryan Braun is actually the next third baseman on the list, based on fantasy eligibility, but if we're going for the next "real" third baseman, David Wright is that guy. There seem to be at least two or three solid options for each spot in the NL infield.
Outfield
Voting leader: Alfonso Soriano, Cubs; Kosuke Fukudome, Cubs; Ken Griffey Jr., Reds
Player Rater leaders: Nate McLouth, Pirates; Ryan Braun, Brewers; Ryan Ludwick, Cardinals (Berkman actually qualifies at outfield, but he's already at first base on this team)
It's not terribly surprising to see these three leading the way, as Griffey will get tons of votes until he retires, no matter his production. Soriano is both popular and productive, while Fukudome has become a hit in his first year in Chicago. But while Soriano does rank among the top NL outfielders, Fukudome isn't even in the top 40 among all outfielders on the Player Rater.
Meanwhile, the top NL outfielders on the Player Rater are mostly guys only fantasy owners can really appreciate, even though they are at least getting votes. Braun (ninth on the Player Rater among outfielders and 10th in voting) is still a third baseman to most fantasy owners, but no matter where he plays, he's producing. Meanwhile, McLouth (third among outfielders on the Player Rater) and Ludwick (10th) have been among the biggest surprises this year, and probably a couple of the biggest fantasy bargains overall. They do show up in the vote totals (McLouth 11th, Ludwick 14th), so some people are paying close attention to the stats. However, this is the rare position in which the AL has the leg up over the NL in terms of better talent, at least at the top of the list.
It's not too hard to use the Player Rater to make your selections for the offensive positions. And it won't be too difficult to use it to figure out some of the bench spots and pitchers when it comes time for the players and the league to fill out the roster. But I've always had a lot of fun figuring out who will be the "mandatory" pick from teams still lacking All-Stars. In many cases, the All-Star Game managers turn into desperate fantasy owners, snapping up the closers for teams without a representative because they've got saves, no matter how awful their ERA is (hello, Mike Williams).
You could see that happen with the Orioles' George Sherrill, the Royals' Joakim Soria, the A's Huston Street, the Nationals' Jon Rauch and maybe even the Rockies' Brian Fuentes (if he's not traded by the break).
In the grand scheme of things, the All-Star Game means little to fantasy owners because the stats don't count, but hey, now everyone knows how we feel when we try to put together our teams. And you could even use some of the eventual All-Star voting results to your advantage by playing up guys who might be selected to the team but may fade later on ("Hey, I'm giving you an All-Star in [enter name of next Jack Armstrong here]").
James Quintong is an editor for ESPN Fantasy.
