Quintong: Understanding closers' numbers
It's very simple what we want from closers: saves. Strikeouts are nice, and if you can keep the ERA and WHIP to manageable levels, all the better (besides, that's how you'll stay in the job). However, unless you're Francisco Rodriguez, a closer won't be in a save situation every time he takes the mound. Sometimes he's called into a tie game late (where there's the potential for a win, which is good) or maybe a blowout game to "get some work in" (not always a good thing since there are no saves or wins looming).
One of last week's Yankees-Orioles games turned into a nightmare if you owned either Mariano Rivera or George Sherrill as both fell into that latter non-save situation.
In need of some work, Rivera came into the game in the ninth with the Yankees trailing by three and proceeded to give up a run. That meant Sherrill entered the game up four and thus no save was in effect. He then allowed three runs before finally shutting down the Yankees to secure the win. Two closers, two innings, four total earned runs, no saves and no wins or losses. With no saves on the line, it seemed like wasted outings, at least in fantasy terms.
Sure, we're always concerned about closers unable to step up to the challenge in the ninth and blowing saves, which might eventually lead to them losing their jobs. However, possibly as dangerous for fantasy owners are those closers who rack up saves when they need to, but struggle when no save is on the line. That could lead to some misleading stat lines when looking at the overall numbers.
Some relief pitchers only seem to operate well when a save is on the line. There can sometimes be a change in focus when it's time to close out a game as opposed to pitching in other game situations. However, with save chances often being a random occurrence (sometimes a closer will get 15-20 in a month, sometimes he'll go a week or two without a shot), it's probably not a good thing to be so inconsistent with performances, but that happens from time-to-time.
I suppose a closer with a bad team needs to get used to not getting that many save chances and should pitch well, no matter the circumstances. Meanwhile, a closer on a good team should be expected to be called on mostly in save situations, so those non-save outings are few and far between, and he might be excused when he stumbles there; or he'll be in line for a couple of extra wins if his team rallies after he pitches. However, it's hard to explain why Mariano Rivera has given up just one run in 26 save chances all season, but seven when not in a save situation.
So let's look at 10 closers with notable difference in splits during save and non-save situations. I'm looking at closers who have had the job all season.
Francisco Rodriguez, Angels:
Save situations: 49 G, 44.2 IP, 45 S, 1-1, 2.22 ERA
Non-save situations 4 G, 4 IP, 0-1, 4.50 ERA
I'm noting this here because 48 of his first 52 appearances were save chances. That's just ridiculous. But he's pretty much doing what fantasy owners want from him: he comes in only when a save is on the line.
George Sherrill, Orioles:
Save situations 36 G, 35.2 IP, 30 S, 1-2, 3.03 ERA
Non-save situations: 13 G, 10.2 IP, 2-3, 8.43 ERA
Sherrill has two different non-save outings against the Yankees this season when he's allowed three runs.
Brian Wilson, Giants
Save situations: 33 G, 33.1 IP, 31 S, 0-1, 2.43 ERA
Non-save situations: 12 G, 11 IP, 0-1, 9.82 ERA
He's been scored upon in half of his non-save outings, including his past four in a row. Those non-save outings have played a big role in his lofty ERA. Otherwise, he's been just fine in the closer's role, even when Giants wins have been few and far between. But the numbers show the Giants won't just trot him out there outside of a save chance for good reason.
Jose Valverde, Astros
Save situations: 33 G, 31.2, 27 S, 2-2, 5.40 ERA
Non-save situations: 19 G, 19.2 IP, 3-1, 2.74 ERA
The Astros aren't afraid to use Valverde for more than one inning in non-save situations, and he's actually been decent there. Interestingly, he's allowed six runs in those non-save outings, the same amount he allowed in just a third of an inning in a blown save against the Pirates on July 21.
Mariano Rivera, Yankees
Save situations: 26 G, 27.1 IP, 26 S, 0-0, 0.33 ERA
Non-save situations: 18 G, 21 IP, 4-4, 3.00 ERA
Rivera hasn't been awful when a save isn't on the line, but he appears mortal at the very least, especially since he hasn't blown a save all season.
Brad Lidge, Phillies
Save situations: 28 G, 28 IP, 28 S, 0-0, 1.29 ERA
Non-save situations: 21 G, 20 IP, 2-0, 3.60 ERA
The non-save situation numbers are affected by a no-out, five-run outing against the Braves on July 25 when a 1-0 ninth-inning deficit eventually turned into 8-0 after he and Clay Condrey were done with that disastrous frame.
C.J. Wilson, Rangers
Save situations (includes one hold): 29 G, 26.2 IP, 24 S, 1-1, 4.05 ERA
Non-save situations: 20 G, 19.1, 1-1, 6.98 ERA
He seems to pick up saves, even if they aren't pretty. One of those non-save outings (May 12 against the Mariners) involved him blowing a four-run lead in the ninth. You'll just have to take the saves and the occasional ugliness that goes with it.
Trevor Hoffman, Padres
Save situations: 26 G, 23.1 IP, 23 S, 0-2, 3.86 ERA
Non-save situations: 11 G, 11 IP, 1-4, 5.73 ERA
Again, nothing really pretty with Hoffman in terms of saves or keeping the ERA at a low level. What is notable is that he has five decisions in those non-save outings. Most closers with a high number of decisions get them thanks to blown saves. His four losses in non-save outings all came in tie games when he allowed the go-ahead run.
Todd Jones, Tigers
Save situations: 21 G, 20.1 IP, 18 S, 0-1, 4.87 ERA
Non-save situations: 25 G, 20.2 IP, 4-0, 5.23 ERA
As you can see, the splits aren't much different. He's pretty mediocre whether in a save situation or not. But when he's up for a save, he'll get it, no matter how ugly. If he's in a non-save outing, he could still get you a win. Of course, he's on the DL, so those oft-ugly outings are on hold for now.
Jon Rauch, Diamondbacks
Save situations (with Nationals): 22 G, 22.1 IP, 17 S, 2-1, 1.61 ERA
Non-save situations (with Nationals): 26 G, 26 IP, 2-1, 4.15 ERA
He's been just fine as a set-up man with Arizona, but I figured it was worth mentioning his time as the closer for the Nationals. With Washington usually running short on victories, Rauch had to be used a lot more than just a closer. His ERA was far better as a closer than in other situations, but the Diamondbacks aren't in any rush to put him in that role ahead of Brandon Lyon.
There isn't a whole lot you can do one way or another with closers who struggle in non-save situations. But it is something to note if some of your closer's stats seem awry. Then again, one bad outing, whether it's a save opportunity or not, can really skew a reliever's season-long stats.
James Quintong is an editor for ESPN Fantasy.
