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I think I understand why managers make the decisions they do, but it doesn't mean I have to agree with them. When a bullpen is struggling, sometimes the closer has to take the fall, even if he isn't the biggest problem. With the Tigers and Cardinals this week, we saw back-end situations altered, and the timing was curious.

Sure, Todd Jones had been on the hot seat for two years in the Motor City, but is Fernando Rodney really any better? He strikes out more hitters, but then again, every pitcher and Aaron Miles does that. Rodney's ERA is higher than Jones', and he's already walked 11 hitters in 16 2/3 innings. Jones walked 15 all season. I sense Jim Leyland will be reassessing this troubled situation again soon.

Tony La Russa probably isn't done pulling his hair out with ninth-inning, one-run leads, either. Ryan Franklin isn't Bruce Sutter by any means, and like Jones he had some mild issues since the All-Star break, but Jason Isringhausen isn't his 2007 self, either. Pitching coach Dave Duncan said the Cardinals are a better club with Izzy and Franklin in the closer and setup roles, respectively, and I can't disagree. Franklin was a terrific set-up man, leading the majors in holds when he was moved, and he got the win Tuesday with two innings of work. However, Isringhausen got whacked around a week ago by the Pirates, Padres and Brewers, and did nothing to earn the job back.

The trade deadline is coming up, and let's be clear about something: It's not necessarily the end of the deals. This is the non-waiver deadline, but players end up on different teams every August. Remember Randy Myers, circa 1998? The Padres didn't want the Braves to have Myers, so they claimed him from the Blue Jays and worked out a deal. Then Myers destroyed the Padres' payroll after that and never got a save. George Sherrill doesn't cost what Myers does and might remain an Oriole this weekend, but he could still be traded. My point is that the Tigers and Cardinals made recent closer changes, but their managers can't sleep easy. There could be trades, or names we haven't mentioned yet who end up getting saves, like Joel Zumaya and even Adam Wainwright.

How many closers are truly safe? When I do the closer rankings you see to the right each week, I see tiers. There are top-of-the-line options in the top five, most of them in the AL, but as the top 10 ends, there are question marks. There are health concerns, like with Billy Wagner and Bobby Jenks, trade concerns with Huston Street and, in the next group, some right-handers who could just pitch horribly at any point and lose their jobs, like Jose Valverde and Brandon Lyon.

Why does it matter who the safe closers are? There are times and certain leagues in which I feel like taking chances, playing the upside game with Kerry Wood, and other times I won't. In some leagues the risk is not worth the reward. You all know about ranking players in tiers for drafts, which speaks to acting on a player -- or ignoring one -- based on supply and demand, but what about tiers of safety?

I've taken the liberty of grouping the 30 closers into tiers of safety, so you can see how crazy this statistic can be. Even I was surprised at just how few closers can be relied on without reservation.

Totally safe (six): Francisco Rodriguez, Jonathan Papelbon, Joe Nathan, Mariano Rivera, Joakim Soria ... Trevor Hoffman

OK, so I threw a curveball there at the end, but think about it, Hoffman is such an icon in San Diego, is there any chance he's losing the closer role? He's already pitched poorly, and there was never discussion about him being replaced by Heath Bell when he was. You know there are people at your workplace who are beloved, so much that you think they could go into the chairman's office and turn his desk over and light it on fire and still get a promotion. Hoffman is the major league closer equivalent. And really, he's not pitching poorly anymore and is healthy, too.

Really close to safe, still some doubt (seven): Brad Lidge, B.J. Ryan, Jose Valverde, Kevin Gregg, Francisco Cordero ... Jonathan Broxton, Brian Fuentes

More shockers. No, Lidge still scares me a tad, like when he turned that 1-0 game into a 6-0 game without retiring a hitter against the Braves Friday. I just hope his first home run allowed doesn't open the floodgates to a lot more. I didn't place Ryan in the health category. Maybe he is totally safe, then. Valverde and Cordero haven't been good despite high save totals. I have a feeling the Astros, who fancy themselves contenders, wouldn't hesitate to go the Doug Brocail route if Valverde struggles. As for the final two guys, you have to love Broxton in the role for L.A. Who's taking that job? And the Rockies are winning the NL West, I decided weeks ago, and Fuentes is staying put. Now watch him get dealt five minutes after this gets posted.

Health concerns (seven): Billy Wagner, Bobby Jenks, Huston Street, Kerry Wood, Mike Gonzalez, Troy Percival, J.J. Putz

I'm not particularly worried about Wagner or Jenks, to be honest, but each has had his golden throwing arm checked in the past few weeks, and each is probably pitching through more soreness than normal due to the pennant races. Street might be dealt, but let's not forget his annual DL stint, shall we? Isn't he a risk to trade for? Billy Beane probably thinks Street is the next Billy Koch. By the way, if Putz were to hurt his arm again, I'd be so confident in Brandon Morrow I'd stick him in the group with Broxton. But Putz is fine, despite blowing the save Tuesday, and Morrow is minors-bound soon to turn into the next Joba Chamberlain and start. Wood is listed here because he should return within a week, but if I listed Carlos Marmol, with his control woes and raw nature, he'd be in the next category, not the above one.

Average closers, could lose job at any time (six): George Sherrill, Brian Wilson, Brandon Lyon, C.J. Wilson, Salomon Torres, Joel Hanrahan

Sorry, but none of these pitchers are so dominant they couldn't be set-up men, or worse, tomorrow. Sherrill is second in the bigs in saves, but his ERA and WHIP are below average, and right-handers are hitting him. Sounds like a Ron Mahay-type set-up man to me. Lyon is one bad blown save away from ceding the role to Jon Rauch. Can you see the Brewers winning the World Series with Salomon Torres getting the final out? I actually like Hanrahan, as you'll see later in this article, but he remains unproven in the role. Will he ever get a save chance?

Mass confusion (four): Fernando Rodney, Jason Isringhausen, Masa Kobayashi, name a Pittsburgh Pirate

I discussed the first two right-handers above. Rodney entered with a four-run lead, walked the leadoff guy and eventually wild pitched him home. I'm telling ya, my prediction is Todd Jones closes again. I was going to go with Joel Zumaya instead, but right triceps tightness doesn't sound like a one-day malady to me, and he was setting Rodney up Tuesday. Rodney can't hold this job. Izzy has a better shot, but I don't think it's going to be pretty. Kobayashi might not be the guy at all, more on that later. And don't you think for a minute the Pirates know for sure what's happening these final two months. In 2009, it's Matt Capps. On Tuesday it was Tyler Yates, and John Grabow hurled the seventh inning, just to anger all fantasy owners. It's certainly possible Yates remains the guy.

The end result here is that few closer situations are so safe that the fantasy owner doesn't need to be concerned. Even Lidge, my friends, isn't a 100 percent lock. One would surmise that this exercise goes against the conventional wisdom we at ESPN Fantasy preach about closers, because if not even 20 percent of the closers are safe, then the ones who are must cost more, must be drafted early and have greater value. I still can't think that way, though. The argument that closers are one-category helpers is for another column, but that if you can get one of the safe guys, hold on to them. It's a good feeling knowing that Joe Nathan won't break your heart ... at least not this season.

Now, let's get back on to our normal Relief Efforts routine, and to the rest of the ample fantasy news coming from major league bullpens.

Joel Hanrahan, Nationals: Whenever a new closer gets announced, I form an immediate opinion about whether I think he'll perform well. The Nationals didn't announce who would replace Jon Rauch as closer right away, and I applaud them for picking a guy who wasn't the eighth inning guy. Hanrahan is one of the top strikeout relief pitchers this season, and he's actually second among all the Nationals in the category, including the starters, but he has only three holds. Luis Ayala has 18, Saul Rivera 11, and even Ray King has four. Hanrahan has that "closer stuff," whatever that means, because he throws hard. Amazingly, the last time the Nationals had a normal save was July 1, so I can understand not dropping a key member of your pitching staff for a guy who might not get a ton of saves, but these things go in cycles. And at worst, Hanrahan will strike hitters out, as we saw Tuesday. And, by the way, there will be trades after I write this, so there should be others to buy low as soon current closers get sent elsewhere. I also think it's a wise time, in deeper leagues, to get Todd Jones, Jon Rauch and even new Indian Jonathan Meloan, if you can. Meloan was acquired from the Dodgers in the Casey Blake trade, and has that "closer stuff." I'm not sure anyone else in the current Cleveland bullpen, or in the minors, is a better closer candidate.

Brad Lidge, Phillies: It was asking too much for this guy, who has had home run problems much of his career, to go all season without giving one up. Lidge still hasn't blown a save opportunity, and despite an awful hiccup over the weekend in a dreaded non-save situation that hiked his ERA quite a bit, his ERA remains low. Too low. In fact, two weeks ago his ERA was 0.92. Lidge permitted 19 home runs in his final two seasons with the Astros. I'm not saying Lidge is going to allow seven or eight home runs the rest of the way, but let's expect some adjustment for his numbers to the mean. Of course, I say this about Mariano Rivera as well. These guys will pile on the saves, just be aware how tough it is for a 30-save closer to end up with an ERA below 1.50. Last season, J.J. Putz and Takashi Saito were the only pitchers with more than three saves to have an ERA below that threshold, and in 2006 B.J. Ryan and Jonathan Papelbon were the only ones with more than one save to do it. It's all about value, and Lidge's 37 saves this season will be worth the same as C.J. Wilson's.

Aaron Heilman, Mets: It's certainly possible the Mets will acquire their "next in line" relief pitcher later this week, but in the interim, it appears Heilman has vaulted from arguably last reliever in the New York bullpen to second in line, despite not pitching all that well. Until Tuesday, Heilman had last registered a hold on July 17, and since then had been pitching one and two outs at a time. Then, he took one for the team over the weekend, throwing 57 pitches and three innings in an extra-inning loss to the Cardinals, allowing an Albert Pujols home run, and on Tuesday he tossrd two innings. What gives? There's no consistency there. The problem is Duaner Sanchez hasn't been pitching well, and his velocity is down, so Heilman has vaulted back into the set-up role. Wagner looks fine, but if another MRI is needed, it appears Heilman is his closer handcuff.

Mike Gonzalez has found it tough to pick up saves, and you know what happens when closers don't get opportunity. They come into games to "get work" and we saw Tuesday what happens, as Gonzalez allowed five runs, though only one was earned. With the Braves throwing in the towel and either disabling or trading everyone, Gonzalez shouldn't pile on the saves. ... I keep watching Cleveland's Rafael Betancourt because I can't believe someone could be dominant one season and throw batting practice the next. For the record, Betancourt had a 1.48 ERA and four home runs allowed last year. When Brandon Inge took him deep Tuesday, it was Raffy's ninth home run allowed, and his ERA is 6.04. Nice. ... Jeff Samardzija is a big fan fave at Wrigley and picked up a save over the weekend. I don't think he's heading back to the minors when Kerry Wood comes back, and with Carlos Marmol wild, there could be more saves ahead. ... Francisco Rodriguez is on pace for 68 saves. The acquisition of Mark Teixeira might actually hurt his pace, however, as the Angels will score more runs. K-Rod is getting a crazy, almost unsustainable number of save chances. ... Masa Kobayashi didn't retire a hitter in his most recent save chance, so Rafael Perez got the call. I'd bet Kobayashi does get the next chance, however. ... Jose Valverde didn't get replaced as closer by Wesley Wright, but the lefty was called on to relieve Brian Moehler and face lefty Joey Votto for the final out Tuesday. Had Votto reached base, Valverde would have closed. Interestingly, Valverde has allowed a .185 batting average to lefties and .304 to right-handers.

Eric Karabell is a senior writer for ESPN.com fantasy. You can e-mail him here.