Broxton paces baseball's best 'pen

Best closer: Broxton. He's been better than Jonathan Papelbon so far, but reliability and experience keep Broxton at No. 2 in my rankings for now. If Broxton's strikeout rate of 16.1 per nine innings continues, as does his 0.43 WHIP -- he's allowed two hits in 44 at-bats this season, a Miguel Tejada single and a Mark Reynolds triple -- he'll take over the top spot. Papelbon hasn't been bad, but he's eighth among closers on our Player Rater. My rankings take more than sheer statistics into account and look ahead. For example, I doubt Ryan Franklin will finish as the No. 3 relief pitcher on the Player Rater, which is his current spot. Anyway, I see Broxton finishing as a top-three closer.
Worst bullpen: Washington Nationals. You might be surprised to learn there are seven bullpens with worse ERAs, including the Yankees and Angels (1-8 with a 7.44 ERA -- wow!), but the Nationals have found new ways to lose games late, and I can count at least five relievers who at one time were named or suggested to be the closer. Who's the closer now? Does it even matter? Kip Wells got the late-inning call Tuesday, and although he didn't enter in a save spot, he blew a one-run lead in the ninth (a bloop double was the unlucky cause). The Nationals' bullpen entered Wednesday 0-8 with a 5.25 ERA, a league-worst three saves and the most walks. And they never even finished Tuesday's game. Joe Beimel moved way up the rankings, despite being on the DL. That says it all.
Worst closer: Huston Street. I have to pick someone who currently is holding the title of closer, not select Joel Hanrahan, Brandon Lyon, B.J. Ryan or someone else who doesn't matter as much. Street didn't have a good spring, lost the job early in April, won it back not because he pitched well but because Manny Corpas was awful, and let's just say I expect another change this month. Street has pitched better the past two weeks, but four of those five outings came against the Padres. Sorry to be skeptical.

Most surprising reliever: Andrew Bailey. The Athletics' top reliever hasn't received any save chances yet, but they could be coming if he continues to look like the Carlos Marmol of the American League. Bailey has allowed six hits in 17 2/3 innings, fanning 20 hitters in the process, and he's picked up three wins. He's up to 8.5 percent ownership in ESPN standard mixed leagues, which is quite a bit of attention, considering he probably was fourth on the team's saves depth chart a week ago. He's moving on up. Credit also to Ronald Belisario, Ryan Franklin and Mark DiFelice.
Top 60 Relievers
Note: Eric Karabell's top 60 relievers are ranked for their expected performance from this point on, not on the statistics that have already been accrued.
1. Jonathan Papelbon, BOS (1)
2. Jonathan Broxton, LAD (5)
3. Joe Nathan, MIN (2)
4. Mariano Rivera, NYY (3)
5. Francisco Rodriguez, NYM (4)
6. Joakim Soria, KC (7)
7. Heath Bell, SD (6)
8. Frank Francisco, TEX (11)
9. Bobby Jenks, CHW (8)
10. Brad Lidge, PHI (12)
11. Brian Fuentes, LAA (9)
12. Chad Qualls, ARI (15)
13. Francisco Cordero, CIN (14)
14. Kerry Wood, CLE (13)
15. Kevin Gregg, CHC (16)
16. Brian Wilson, SF (18)
17. Trevor Hoffman, MIL (24)
18. Matt Capps, PIT (10)
19. Scott Downs, TOR (19)
20. Matt Lindstrom, FLA (20)
21. Mike Gonzalez, ATL (21)
22. Fernando Rodney, DET (23)
23. Ryan Franklin, STL (25)
24. Troy Percival, TB (28)
25. Brad Ziegler, OAK (22)
26. Huston Street, COL (40)
27. LaTroy Hawkins, HOU (31)
28. Brandon Morrow, SEA (17)
29. George Sherrill, BAL (27)
30. Joel Zumaya, DET (29)
31. Rafael Soriano, ATL (30)
32. David Aardsma, SEA (57)
33. J.J. Putz, NYM (33)
34. Carlos Marmol, CHC (32)
35. Jose Valverde, HOU (38)
36. Jason Grilli, COL (56)
37. Chris Ray, BAL (47)
38. Ryan Madson, PHI (34)
39. Andrew Bailey, OAK (54)
40. Joe Beimel, WAS (43)
41. Takashi Saito, BOS (36)
42. Leo Nunez, FLA (41)
43. Mark DiFelice, MIL (60)
44. B.J. Ryan, TOR (44)
45. Michael Wuertz, OAK (NA)
46. Julian Tavarez, WAS (37)
47. John Grabow, PIT (NA)
48. Juan Cruz, KC (35)
49. Jason Motte, STL (49)
50. Ronald Belisario, LAD (50)
51. Kiko Calero, FLA (46)
52. Joel Hanrahan, WAS (45)
53. Octavio Dotel, CHW (52)
54. Juan Gutierrez, ARI (NA)
55. Tony Pena, ARI (51)
56. Danys Baez, BAL (NA)
57. Dan Wheeler, TB (55)
58. Hideki Okajima, BOS (58)
59. David Weathers, CIN (48)
60. Manny Corpas, COL (26)
Most disappointing reliever: Name an Indian. Let's start with Rafael Perez. I know he's not a closer, but it was conceivable he was next in line to the Kerry Wood throne a month ago, since Jensen Lewis isn't a special pitcher and Perez shone the past two years. Instead, Perez has a 15.19 ERA and 2.63 WHIP. This has been a team effort. On Tuesday, four relievers -- the team's top guys sans Wood -- blew a seventh-inning lead by allowing seven Toronto runs! I thought Wood would be better, but he's had a few ugly outings -- at least he's healthy -- and Lewis, Rafael Betancourt and Joe Smith have been unusable as well for those in AL-only formats.
Bullpen to watch: Toronto Blue Jays. What manager Cito Gaston does when B.J. Ryan is ready to return to the team will make a big statement either way. The argument can be made that fellow southpaw Scott Downs was better in 2008 and hasn't given Gaston a reason to take the role from him. Ryan could be an effective set-up man, but it obviously would stunt his fantasy value. Of course, there's more to watch, particularly with the right-handers. Last season, the Blue Jays relied almost entirely on lefties to close out the final two innings, but they will need some combination of Jason Frasor, Brandon League and former closer Jeremy Accardo to be effective and contend, and it won't shock me if any of these guys becomes the closer. League pitched the eighth Monday with a lead, and Gaston left him in for the save in the ninth, which he couldn't convert. Downs and Jesse Carlson weren't available, but it still said something. Accardo is closing in the minors, and closing well.
Reliever to watch: Jason Motte. Not that Ryan Franklin is having any problems for Tony La Russa, but the Cardinals know Motte throws a lot harder and could be the league's next dominant closer if he gets his act together. Despite not allowing a run since mid-April, he's not there yet, as his strikeout rate is wowing nobody. Motte is ahead of Chris Perez on the depth chart for saves, and he might not get his chance unless Franklin stumbles, but I think we all know this situation isn't settled yet.
OK, now on to the normal categories that make up the weekly Relief Efforts. As always, check out the rankings to the right and the separate closer chart with all the interesting options in each bullpen. And yes, it seems to change every day.
Fortunes rising
Frank Francisco, Rangers: A bit of a question mark on draft day, but maybe he shouldn't have been. Previously known more for tossing a chair into the right-field box seats in Oakland and getting arrested five years ago, Francisco now has moved into our top 10 among closers. He's second to Broxton on our Player Rater, having permitted no runs so far, and controlling his command has been a big key. Francisco basically is picking up where he left off last season, when his post-All-Star break numbers were exceptional (2.46 ERA, 13 hits in 25 2/3 innings, 38 Ks). There's no need to own any other Texas relievers in fantasy.
Trevor Hoffman, Brewers: So far, so good, as the future Hall of Famer pitched five times in his first eight days after being activated from the DL, and he still hasn't allowed a run or a walk. He's permitted three singles, all to lefties, and it's possible this trend that started a few years back will become a problem, but for now, Hoffman can survive by controlling right-handed hitters and issuing no free passes. He eventually will give up a run, but I think he'll have 30 saves by September. Own Mark DiFelice for the strong strikeouts, but don't expect saves. Hoffman moves up quite a bit, and he's probably not done yet.
Michael Wuertz/Andrew Bailey, Athletics: I've been theorizing Brad Ziegler isn't the safest closer around since it became clear Joey Devine was out of the picture, and now it appears Wuertz is next in line for saves. Bailey certainly is looming, even if neither of them is the team's primary set-up man. Russ Springer still looks like the eighth-inning fellow, but Wuertz was the one getting save chances over the weekend, and Bailey is the one with the better statistics. Ziegler is back after missing more than a week and losing eight pounds due to the flu, but he could lose the closer job through no fault of his own performance. Wuertz and Bailey each move way up in the rankings, while Santiago Casilla leaves after hitting the DL with a knee problem.
Fortunes falling

Manny Corpas, Rockies: When your manager tells the media you've had "a month and a half of good pitching in the last seven months in the big leagues," chances are you're firmly planted in the doghouse. Corpas didn't earn the closer role a few weeks back as much as Huston Street gave it to him, but Corpas quickly gave it back, even though he never blew a save. He's been extremely hittable this season, and during his past nine outings, he's allowed two or more hits six times. Lefties are pounding him, and he's not striking anyone out, either. At this point, it's more likely Corpas will pitch in the minor leagues before he closes again. With little confidence that Street will hold the job, I maintain Jason Grilli is the sleeper saves guy in this bullpen, at least until Taylor Buchholz comes back healthy. And keep an eye on 26-year-old right-hander Matt Daley, who had a 1.13 ERA at Triple-A Colorado Springs, with one walk and 15 strikeouts in eight innings. He was called up last week and hadn't allowed a hit in three innings until Tuesday, although it was a good sign he was pitching in the 10th inning of a tie game.
George Sherrill, Orioles: Welcome to the Baltimore committee. Manager Dave Trembley noted over the weekend that Sherrill no longer will be the sole closer, as one messy outing after another invited others to share the role with him. Most people assume Chris Ray stands to gain the most here, but he's been considerably worse than Sherrill. We all know committees are not good for fantasy owners, but I don't think they work in real life, either. Sherrill complained about not being given the chance to pitch better and seize his opportunity, but he did blow two of his past three chances. Regardless, I think Danys Baez is days away from getting a chance to close and doing the seizing. He has the best numbers in the bullpen, having permitted only seven hits in 15 2/3 innings, and he does have considerable closing experience. No, Baez wasn't the cleanest closer for the Indians and Rays earlier this decade, but he did have 41 saves in 2005. Sherrill doesn't drop much in the rankings, because I still think he is on the committee to close and could keep the role, but it wouldn't take much for him to end up like Joel Hanrahan, pushed into a deep setup role even if nobody else steals the saves.
Comings and goings
• The Yankees aren't playing well, and Mariano Rivera has saved one game since April 21. Of course, since that day, both his top set-up men have ended up on the DL, with Damaso Marte the latest, following Brian Bruney. Their collective absence leaves a huge void, one we haven't seen the importance of since the team hasn't had many late-inning leads of late. The only other pitcher on the staff with a hold is Jonathan Albaladejo, with one. Jose Veras hasn't pitched well, Phil Coke is a lefty who doesn't retire right-handed hitters and Mark Melancon seems a bit too green to be given such an important role. What, you say, what about Joba Chamberlain? Hey, we have to think about it, since he's not going deep in games, but I don't see it happening. He struck out 12 Red Sox in 5 2/3 innings Tuesday. Rivera could lose a save chance or two if he has no reliable set-up men, which could put pressure on Chamberlain to move. I still don't see it happening.
• Just a few days after the Diamondbacks watched Tom Gordon debut for them, he was gone, having hurt his hamstring covering a play at home plate. Former starting pitcher prospect Juan Gutierrez has really stepped up, with a major strikeout rate, so I argue Arizona won't miss Gordon much while he's on the DL, and Tony Pena is clearly next in line after Chad Qualls.
• As noted earlier, Seattle's Morrow went on the DL with biceps tendinitis, retroactive for more than a week, which means he's eligible to return this weekend. The Mariners seem confident the DL stint was precautionary, knowing Morrow's history. Those in deep leagues might want to keep David Aardsma around, though.
• Another team to move a starter to the bullpen is the Mets, who moved Oliver Perez. Perez is not likely to see a save chance, though, so no need to own him. Seriously, if nine pitchers go down, John Franco might come out of retirement and save a Johan Santana win before Ollie does.
• Jesse Crain came off the DL on Monday for the Twins after dealing with a sore shoulder, and he should pass Matt Guerrier on the depth chart for holds. Then again, Jose Mijares might take the role from both right-handers.
• The Dodgers made a few moves in their bullpen, losing original set-up guy Hong-Chih Kuo to an elbow injury and adding James McDonald after he didn't cut it as a starter. Kuo's loss could be a big one, since he was so good in 2008. The team is calling his elbow problem "arthritic change" -- he's undergone four surgeries in his career, and while his career probably is not in jeopardy, the team doesn't know when he will return. Luckily for the Dodgers, Cory Wade is pitching well, and Jeff Weaver enters the rotation to fortify nah, I can't type that part with a straight face.
Eric Karabell is a senior writer for ESPN.com who covers fantasy baseball, football and basketball. Check out his daily Baseball Today podcast at ESPN Podcenter. He has twice been honored as fantasy sports writer of the year by the Fantasy Sports Writers Association. His book, "The Best Philadelphia Sports Arguments," was published by Source Books and is available in bookstores. Contact Karabell by e-mailing him here.
