May 3, 2007, 2:28 PM

Relief Efforts: Volatile Closer Situations

Comment Print Share
By David Young
Special to ESPN.com
Archive

Atlanta Braves: Bob Wickman is on the 15-day DL with an upper back strain, but what's troubling is his 10/9 BB/K ratio. I'm not buying just two weeks of vacation for Wickman this year, but we'll see. So who gets the saves while Wickman is out? Let's play Bobby Cox:

PITCHER IP ERA WHIP K/9 K/BB
Rafael Soriano 12.1 4.32 0.97 8.0 2.2
Mike Gonzalez 10.1 1.74 1.65 6.1 1.0

Soriano appears superior in every category except ERA, which comes from two games of three earned runs each -- his only runs allowed this year. Both were non-save situations, so I'll argue his performance was exactly what you'd expect from a closer. At the beginning of the season I said we'd see a 25/15/5 save split among Wickman, Gonzalez and Soriano, respectively, but I'm now going to switch Soriano and Gonzalez in that calculus. Wickman will be given the job back (pun intended) when he returns, but in keeper leagues, if you have Soriano, you have next year's closer.

Cincinnati Reds: The Reds have only had seven save opportunities, and DavID Weathers has converted five of the six he has been given. Weathers should hold onto the job for the next couple of months with Mike Stanton seeing the odd save (yes, it's safe to drop Todd Coffey despite his 14/3 K/BB ratio). However, this team may be limited in the save opportunities it creates, and keep in mind Eddie Guardado is progressing well in his rehab and could be back as early as June. In keeper leagues, throw Guardado on your bench, and in non-keepers, if you need saves and lesser names like Henry Owens and Joakim Soria are gone, put Eddie in your DL spot.

Houston Astros: On April 9 the Astros announced Brad Lidge was being demoted from closer to set-up man in favor of Dan Wheeler. Here's what the stats have looked like for the two on either side of that announcement:

Pre-Announcement

PITCHER IP SvO Sv ERA WHIP K/9 K/BB
Brad Lidge 1 2/3 1 0 16.17 4.79 5.4 0.3
Dan Wheeler 2 1 0 9.00 2.50 0.0 0.0
Post-Announcement
PITCHER IP SvO Sv ERA WHIP K/9 K/BB
Brad Lidge 7 2/3 0 0 3.52 2.08 5.4 0.3
Dan Wheeler 10 3 3 1.80 0.70 10.8 6.0

Guess who wants to keep his closer's job and guess who is on the trading block. The Astros' offense should improve because of current changes in personnel, making Wheeler the best buy-low closer out there as his save opportunities should drastically improve. As for Lidge, I said he would either get the job back or be traded. Since option one is a distant memory, expect a team to take a chance on him by the trading deadline.

New York Yankees: Quick, who leads all of baseball with the most blown saves? It's the Yankees with seven out of eight save opportunities blown, for a 13 percent save-conversion rate. To put that in perspective, the second worst is Washington -- at 45 percent! So if the Yankees are looking to point a finger for their losses, they should do so at their bullpen. But of course, the nine starters New York has already used must share in the blame as the over-worked bullpen is second in innings pitched at 97.0. Mariano Rivera will improve and see more save chances, but that won't happen until the starters pitch better and longer into games, and the rest of the bullpen shows it can hold a lead.

Pittsburgh Pirates: Since we like comparing pitchers, let's do it one more time:

PITCHER IP ERA WHIP K/9 K/BB
Salomon Torres 12 6.75 1.67 4.5 1.2
Matt Capps 14.1 0.63 0.77 5.0 4.0

So why is Torres still closing? Looks like we'll have to wait them out, but it shouldn't be too long. Do not drop Capps.

San Diego Padres: Manager Bud Black's response to Trevor Hoffman blowing two saves on consecutive nights was something like he's pitching well, but he just put a couple of pitches right over the plate. Yes, Bud (if that is your real name), that's exactly what closers do before they lose their jobs. In the preseason, I said to lower your expectations for Hoffman and his ratios. He's not in danger of losing his job, but note how closers end up on the DL with mystery ailments after underperforming, or "get a rest" every now and then. If Hoffman goes down, Scott Linebrink is likely the heir apparent for this season, but two names to keep in mind are Heath Bell and Royce Ring. The Mets never knew what to do with Bell, and to be fair, he didn't pitch well there. Away from the big city lights, Bell has been, well, lights out, with 17 K in 16.2 IP, and an ERA of 0.54. Bell has arguably been the best non-closing reliever this year, so pick him up as Hoffman insurance and enjoy the help with your ratios, strikeouts and vulture wins. Ring is another Mets castoff, and has the skills to close, but as a lefty, he may become a situational arm.

Texas Rangers: I don't want to alarm anyone, but Eric Gagne is hurt. Look, we'll be playing this game all season long. Gagne probably has 15 saves in his arm, but the rest are going to Akinori Otsuka. Keep Otsuka active even when Gagne is healthy (or about as healthy as he gets) as Otsuka is a good candidate for vulture wins. Just don't make the mistake of dropping Otsuka this year if Gagne pitches for more than a week.

Toronto Blue Jays: If you've got a glove, show up at the Rogers Centre this week and you might get a chance to close. Jason Frasor (4.09 ERA, 2 blown saves) is tanking the audition, as is Shaun Marcum (7.50 ERA, 1 blown save). Casey Janssen looks promising, but his two strikeouts in 13 2/3 innings reminds us too much of Dan Kolb in his heyday. That leaves us with two viable candidates: Scott Downs and Jeremy Accardo. Downs is pitching well (10 K in 7 1/3 innings, 0.00 ERA), but he has two strikes against him in that he's a lefty and more than five years older than Accardo, who is also pitching well (8 K in 10 2/3 innings, 0.00 ERA). I'm starting to agree with those who have been telling me Accardo is the man. Unless of course Brad Lidge gets a work visa.

David Young is a fantasy analyst for TalentedMrRoto.com and ESPN.com.