Relief Efforts: Going through the AL
It's been about two months since I went through every major league team to update each team's closer situation. Well, now seems like a perfect time to get back in there and speculate on who would get saves in Tampa Bay if Al Reyes stopped pitching. Really, is there ever a bad time to delve into the Devil Rays' bullpen?
Let's start with the American League this week, and next week get to the National League.
Baltimore Orioles
Closer: Chris Ray
Next in line: Danys Baez
Stealth: Scott Williamson
Ray's ERA is a bit higher than his owners would prefer, but it's not because Ray is too hittable, or walks people. He just has a weak spot for allowing home runs. He did it last year, and he's doing it now. It shouldn't prevent him from a successful season, but if you're looking for that dominant closer to post a sub-2.00 ERA, this isn't your guy. He should get a decent amount of saves, though, with Baez the obvious choice behind him based on his experience. Chad Bradford owners might wonder what their guy has to do to get saves, and my answer would be there's nothing he can do. Even a guy like Williamson, currently on the DL, would get a chance eventually based on experience.
Prediction: Ray gets 33 saves, but his ERA finishes on the wrong side of 4.00.
Boston Red Sox:
Closer: Jonathan Papelbon
Next in line: Hideki Okajima
Stealth: Julian Tavarez
For now it would be just mean to predict an injury is in the future for Papelbon, so I won't do it. He overcame a hiccup last week when Oakland rookie Travis Buck homered off him in the ninth inning and saved a pair of games in the Twins series. I still don't think Papelbon is near as dominant as he was last season, a fact proven by his strikeout rate and increase in walks. Last year Papelbon walked 13 hitters all season; this season he's already at six, and they all came in a seven-game stretch recently, almost one per outing. It's probably nothing. Or is it? Who's next in line? Forget Craig Hansen. I don't see it for this year. Mike Timlin is on the DL, but he'll be back soon. Devern Hansack was a Peter Gammons choice back in March, but I think he'll be needed to start at some point. Honestly, I could see Tavarez in the role eventually. Clearly he's earned Terry Francona's confidence, and I doubt he's a starter much longer. For now the next in line has to be the team's top Japanese import (OK, statistically at least) in Okajima, a lefty who is overpowering everyone. Again, no reason to officially worry about it for now, because Papelbon looks fine.
Prediction: Papelbon gets 35 saves, but also a short DL stint in August.
Chicago White Sox:
Closer: Bobby Jenks
Next in line: Mike MacDougal
Stealth: David Aardsma
I don't see Jenks changing the way he does things anytime soon. It's not always pretty, every once in a while he has a meltdown and clearly the White Sox have other options, but that doesn't mean Jenks is in trouble. He has walked only five hitters all season, and that would be the main warning sign for him. Meanwhile, MacDougal piles on the holds (tied for the AL lead), but Aardsma is having the more notable campaign, with a sub-1.00 WHIP and the most strikeouts for any reliever in baseball. This is a solid bullpen.
Prediction: Jenks ends up with 39 saves and a 3.12 ERA, while Aardsma approaches 100 strikeouts and gets offseason talk as a future closer.
Cleveland Indians:
Closer: Joe Borowski
Next in line: Fernando Cabrera
Stealth: Tom Mastny
One nightmare outing against the Yankees has made Borowski look like he's struggling, but he's not. It was just a really bad day for him, and a good day for Alex Rodriguez, that's all. I was originally surprised when I looked at Borowski's strikeout rate, but then again, he's had seasons like this before. The Indians are good, on their way to 90 wins, so someone's gotta save them. Who's next? Cabrera is owned in 4 percent of leagues, but he's a multi-inning reliever with 22 strikeouts in 15 2/3 innings, though he's struggled a bit of late. He'd probably get the call to close over ancient Roberto Hernandez and perpetually overlooked Rafael Betancourt.
Prediction: Borowski ends up with 38 saves, 3.79 ERA, but also tires and cedes a few saves to Cabrera and Mastny.
Detroit Tigers:
Closer: Todd Jones
Next in line: Fernando Rodney
Stealth: Chad Durbin
Jones is doing the same thing he did last year, except he's avoided those really nasty outings so far. So what if he has half the strikeouts this year as Brad Penny had Monday night? Saves are saves. What's interesting about Jones is that he fanned two hitters the entire month of April. Hard to do. He's since been like Nolan Ryan, fanning five batters in his last three outings. Meanwhile. Joel Zumaya is done for three months with the finger injury, so maybe now Rodney will be universally recognized as the backup closer, which he probably was all along. Why is the stealth guy the current No. 5 starter? That's why they call it stealth, it's unexpected. Plus, at some point Durbin will lose the rotation spot to the more talented Andrew Miller, and with Zumaya gone, that leaves Durbin and Jose Mesa. Who would you rather see close?
Prediction: Jones ends up with 45 saves and a 2.88 ERA and fewer strikeouts than Gil Meche had in April. Zumaya returns for the playoffs. Yep, Detroit's the wild card. (In case you were wondering, I'll predict the Red Sox win the East, Indians and Tigers make it from the Central, and the Angels' dominant bullpen shines out West. Roger Clemens is playing golf the first week of October.)
Kansas City Royals:
Closer: Joakim Soria
Next in line: Octavio Dotel
Stealth: David Riske
The Royals aren't going to have any controversy here since they've already made it clear Dotel, when healthy, will be the closer. No, Soria has done nothing wrong, but life isn't always fair. Dotel was brought in to close, he'll get every opportunity. Then again, I don't think he'll make it past 40 outings. Soria, it should be noted, is no lock to continue this success, not at his age and level of experience. Hopefully he doesn't go the route of Ambiorix Burgos.
Prediction: Dotel ends up with 12 saves. Sorry, it's a bit difficult to be optimistic about his health. Soria ends up with 15 saves, but an ERA above 4.00. It takes more than strikeout stuff to succeed.
Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim:
Closer: Francisco Rodriguez
Next in line: Scot Shields
Stealth: Justin Speier
Nothing is wrong with K-Rod, and his setup men are very, very good. This is the kind of bullpen you see in the playoffs. Speier and Shields are each arguably top-10 middle relievers for fantasy. They've combined for 32 2/3 innings, 15 hits and 33 strikeouts, and each should pick up wins in time. Not much to say here, sorry.
Prediction: K-Rod ends up with 44 saves and a 2.43 ERA, while Speier and Shields combine for 14 wins and 156 strikeouts.
Minnesota Twins:
Closer: Joe Nathan
Next in line: Pat Neshek
Stealth: Matt Garza
You're probably wondering why I selected Garza for stealth. I don't really think he will close, but Juan Rincon or Jesse Crain are too obvious there. You know them. Garza is way out there. Why isn't he starting, even though Sidney Ponson is brutal? I could actually see Garza coming up to pitch in relief at some point, especially if Rincon's minor arm issues become major, and Crain continues to struggle. That's where the Twins could need him most. Nathan hasn't exactly been perfect, being more hittable than he's been since joining the Twins. Neshek has zoomed past Rincon into the key setup role, and he'd be fine closing if Nathan's relatively disappointing start is due to injury.
Prediction: Nathan's fine, and he ends up with 39 saves and an ERA of 2.48. Neshek allows 42 hits in 79 innings and wins seven games.
New York Yankees:
Closer: Mariano Rivera
Next in line: Kyle Farnsworth
Stealth: Chad Cordero
No, you didn't miss anything, Cordero is still a member of the Washington Nationals. But really, that team doesn't need him, and Cordero looks like he needs a new home. Could happen. It certainly wouldn't be anyone else getting saves, should Rivera go down. Wouldn't Chris Britton seem a decent choice? He can't even stay on the active roster. Farnsworth has struggled, though it appears he has regained the eighth inning role. Scott Proctor, Mike Myers and Luis Vizcaino have each walked more hitters than they've struck out. That's not good. Personally, I don't think Rivera is hurt, or toast. He's certainly capable of 10-save months at any point, and as you might have heard, the Yankees starting pitching is about to improve. If the middle relief does as well, expect Rivera to get more work and thrive. I'd trade for him.
Prediction: Rivera ends up with 37 saves, 2.96 ERA. Buy low.
Oakland Athletics:
Closer: Huston Street
Next in line: Justin Duchscherer
Stealth: Rich Harden
I don't think Street is going to get hurt again, though clearly it's been a problem in his pro career. He's off to a nice start, and he manages to win games as well. Duchscherer's arm might be ready to fall off from years of abuse, but he's next as long as Kiko Calero struggles. As for Harden, it's not a crazy idea to think his eventual role, when it becomes obvious he can't withstand the rigors of starting, is in the bullpen.
Prediction: Street ends up with 41 saves, seven wins. Sweet.
Seattle Mariners:
Closer: J.J. Putz
Next in line: Chris Reitsma
Stealth: Brandon Morrow
It took Putz a while to get going, but blame the team, not him. His ERA, WHIP and K rate all look fine, and talk of his elbow hurting has ceased. I think Morrow is probably the team's second-best reliever, but he's been relegated to pitching earlier in games, which makes it clear Reitsma, based on experience, is next.
Prediction: Putz doesn't quite match his 2006 season, but 36 saves and a 2.61 ERA will suffice.
Tampa Bay Devil Rays:
Closer: Al Reyes
Next in line: Brian Stokes
Stealth: Chad Orvella
How many saves does Reyes have? How many runs has he allowed, and what's his strikeout rate? Where did he come from? Well, we kind of warned you Reyes was good, because he was this good in 2005 with the Cardinals. He's pitching back-to-back days when necessary, and really, I don't see why he can't keep up his fine performance. The big question is if he does get hurt, who would step in? Can you find anyone in this bullpen worthy? Juan Salas might have been, but he's been suspended for the next 50 games for off-field issues. Stokes is cruising with a 1.98 … oh wait, that's his WHIP, sorry. Shawn Camp has a WHIP even higher. Ruddy Lugo is in the minors. What a mess. No wonder Tampa starting pitchers have such a tough time getting wins. The team has 14 wins, and the bullpen has six of them. Anyway, I'll say Stokes is still next in line for now out of default, though the recently promoted Orvella should easily vault past him.
Prediction: Reyes ends up with 35 saves, 2.39 ERA. The team ends up with 38 saves.
Texas Rangers:
Closer: Eric Gagne
Next in line: Akinori Otsuka
Stealth: Frank Francisco
This situation is going to rest solely on the right arm of Gagne. When that arm is tired, or hurt or being asked to throw back-to-back days, then Otsuka will be the closer. Yeah, I have doubts Gagne will make it through even 30 outings healthy. I realize the injury that cost him the last month wasn't technically related to his arm, but it's always going to be something. Otsuka's solid and worth owning in fantasy. Frankly, if Gagne gets a few saves this week, I'd turn your investment into a solid outfielder, if anyone's buying.
Prediction: Gagne ends up with 14 saves and three separate DL stints. Otsuka saves 19 games.
Toronto Blue Jays:
Closer: Jason Frasor
Next in line: Jeremy Accardo
Stealth: Brandon League
This situation might have already changed, but there hasn't been much to save of late since the Jays haven't won in more than a week. Frasor can take some of the blame for that, because he's struggled. He also lost a game a few days ago when he entered in the eighth inning and quickly allowed a tie to get unbroken. Accardo could already be the closer, we just don't know it. He hasn't allowed a run all season, so yeah, I'd say he's worthy. Fans of Scott Downs are wondering why he's not up for consideration. Why? He's Will Ohman. He's Mike Myers. He's left-handed. Accardo's the guy if Frasor keeps sputtering. League is still on the DL, but I keep thinking he's being groomed to close eventually. And speaking of eventually, that's when you'll see B.J. Ryan again. Yeah, I know the team says he should resume throwing in June, but pardon me while I ignore the team that lied to us about Ryan's injury in March. I don't think Ryan will return before the All-Star break.
Prediction: Four Blue Jays already have saves, let's say another four acquire them. Frasor's 13 will lead the way. Ryan comes back for a few days, then gets shut down again.
Next week, the National League.
Eric Karabell covers fantasy sports for ESPN.com. Check out his daily blog at this link.
