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July 18, 2007, 8:06 PM

Relief Efforts: Trade-deadline possibilities

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By Eric Karabell
ESPN.com
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Things change every day in major league bullpens. One day your fantasy closer is dominating, the next he's nursing a sore arm or third in line for saves. Eric Karabell breaks down all the key happenings in major league bullpens in the latest Relief Efforts.

With the trading deadline less than two weeks away, it's time for Relief Efforts to take a look at what could change involving the bullpens. A year ago, it was a busy trade deadline day, with Greg Maddux, Julio Lugo, Shea Hillenbrand and Xavier Nady among the players moving on, and Bobby Abreu and Carlos Lee among the bats moving in advance of the deadline. How many closers got moved?

Well, none did at the deadline, though a few situations changed in the weeks prior. Francisco Cordero was involved in the Lee trade, heading to Milwaukee, but he wasn't closing for Texas at the time. The Indians dealt Bob Wickman to Atlanta, which had a fantasy impact, but other than that, closer situations weren't exactly turned upside down by trades.

A year earlier, there wasn't much to discuss either. Kyle Farnsworth switched leagues, but that was about it. A month earlier, Ugueth Urbina went to the Phillies. Woo-hoo.

So why are we so sure current closers like Brad Lidge, Chad Cordero and Octavio Dotel will find new homes? Well, we're not sure. In fact, the trade deadline normally ends up being much ado about nothing. Then again, it's always fun to predict.

Here are seven teams that could deal their closers, and my thoughts.

• Washington Nationals: It seems to me Chad Cordero is a luxury a last-place team does not need. Cordero struggled out of the gate, allowing 19 hits in 13 1/3 April innings, but he's pitched well since, and could end up with more than 24 saves. Personally, I think Cordero is more like the pitcher he was last season, when he saved 29 games and had a 3.19 ERA, as opposed to the guy who saved 47 games and took a 0.94 ERA into September 2005. This Cordero still has real-life value, and one would think the Nats are trying to exploit it on the market. Jon Rauch would seem the logical replacement for Cordero, since he leads the team in holds (and is third in the NL) and saved a few games earlier this season when Cordero was out. Well, Saul Rivera has a few saves as well, a lower ERA than Rauch and only one home run allowed all season. It could be either guy. I say Rauch gets the chance, but Rivera would be just as good a choice.

• Houston Astros: This team would need one of the better second halves in recent history to get into the playoffs, so let the proverbial rebuilding process begin. Lidge has been on the trade block -- on and off -- for more than a year, and he could be the difference maker for a number of contending teams. Whether Lidge can be successful in the playoffs is another issue -- based on his track record. Still few can deny he is capable of regular-season dominance. I wonder if the Astros would have been more apt to move Lidge if Dan Wheeler had not been so brutal in June (10.43 ERA). Lidge's rough month was April, but since May 1 he's allowed three earned runs in 28 1/3 innings and fanned 38 hitters. That's, um, pretty good, and now that he's off the DL he's looking strong again. Wheeler stands to get the saves over Chad Qualls should Lidge move on, but look for this team to find someone else in 2008.

• Kansas City Royals: If the Nationals can lose their 95 games with or without a veteran closer, then certainly the woebegone Royals can as well. However, I'm not so sure Octavio Dotel is going to be dealt. He's done a nice job this season, giving the Royals a bit of respectability. Moreover, this no-risk signing has already paid dividends -- it could result in a young player being acquired. However it's often the most obvious trades that don't occur. Surely Dotel is likely to be a set-up man wherever he goes, which would take away most of his fantasy value. If Dotel goes, the logical replacement would be Joakim Soria, who saved 10 games in the first two months of the season, and he has been perfect since Dotel's return. In fact, Soria last allowed a run on May 20! He's tossed 18 scoreless innings since, allowing seven hits and three walks. Zack Greinke seems a popular stealth choice to get the closer job, but I don't know why the Royals wouldn't just go back to what clearly works, which is the hard-throwing Soria.

• Texas Rangers: Like the Royals and Dotel, the Rangers took a low-risk chance on Eric Gagne working out, with a one-year contract, and he's done a very good job, compiling 14 saves and a 1.23 ERA. There are a few reasons I don't think Gagne will be dealt. For one, there's the injury factor, with teams being cautious. Gagne has pitched in back-to-back situations five times, which would seem to be proof that he's healthy, but acquiring him is still a risk. Two, he wants to close wherever he goes. Few contenders would simply replace their closer (maybe the Indians and Tigers), and if Gagne isn't going to be happy on his new club, why deal for him? Finally, the Rangers held onto Akinori Otsuka all spring, waiting to see if Gagne would be healthy, and now it's Otsuka, the replacement closer, who is hurt and likely ticketed for the DL. Texas is having a bad season, but there's nobody else in the bullpen who has ready to step into the ninth-inning role. If Gagne gets dealt, and Otsuka can't pitch, look for Joaquin Benoit to get a chance. He throws hard, and has registered more than a strikeout per inning, but in a Salomon Torres-type way (before he closed) Benoit has also been a valued innings eater in middle relief.

• Cincinnati Reds: It's time for fantasy owners to stop picking on poor David Weathers. He's already got a career-high 18 saves, and with the rest of the Reds' bullpen in ruins, quite a few of those saves have been more than one inning. Weathers, put simply, hasn't been one of Cincinnati's problems this season, but then again, at age 37, he's not a part of the rebuilding either. If you own Weathers, be aware that if he gets traded, it's a good bet he won't be in line for saves. But who knows which team gets a sudden need for someone like him in the next few weeks? Is Weathers pitching any worse than Wickman was last season? Not really. The question is what would happen to the Reds bullpen if Weathers goes? Eddie Guardado is a name we've discussed quite a bit in this forum, and he remains the leading contender for saves if he returns soon. Who else is there? The Reds feel like they've already given Todd Coffey his chance, and he failed. Bill Bray, the supposed key to the Austin Kearns trade with Washington a year ago, is also rehabbing from injury, and he would seem the wiser choice since he's young. Brad Salmon, who throws with his right hand and has saved games in the minors, is still in the minors, but don't be surprised to see him in the closing picture as well.

• Tampa Bay Devil Rays: Al Reyes should come off the DL any day now, and he'd be a nice addition for a contender, but the Devil Rays are notoriously difficult to deal with. So the team might consider Reyes worth more than others do. If Reyes is dealt, current fill-in closer Gary Glover would keep the job, though nothing in his past indicates he can be effective in the role.

• Florida Marlins: The Marlins aren't in the pennant race, and Kevin Gregg has had a nice season, being fortunate to leave the Angels in the offseason and go to a team that needed stability, and had a few pieces fall to give him the chance. Gregg issues too many walks, and doesn't have a track record of closing, so chances are the Marlins will end up keeping him. That would be a shame for Henry Owens and Matt Lindstrom, who have pitched well and could be the future closers for the franchise. Armando Benitez might be next in line, though.

• Twenty is the number of saves for Billy Wagner, Brian Fuentes and Kevin Gregg this season, and another reason why drafting a closer early is not recommended. Wagner has been great this season, but Gregg entered the season with one career save, buried on Florida's depth chart and undrafted in mixed leagues, and he has just as many saves. Wagner was drafted fifth among closers, No. 52 overall.

• Twenty is the number of strikeouts for Trevor Hoffman this season, which ranks him last among all 27 pitchers with 10 or more saves. Among current closers, only Antonio Alfonseca has fewer strikeouts. Yep, Todd Jones has 21 K's. What does it mean? Pitchers don't need to overpower hitters to get them out. It would be nice if Hoffman fanned more hitters, and make him more valuable, but it's not critical.

• Twenty is the number of saves seven pitchers registered after the All-Star break last season, the lowest mark in three years. In 2005, that figure was eight, and in 2004, the number was nine. Meanwhile, there has been an average of 12 pitchers the last four seasons who have accrued 20 or more saves before the All-Star break. If you think you're going to make a big run in saves, note that they're not as plentiful from here on out.

Robert (Toronto): "Eric, how do you see the Blue Jays closer situation looking next spring? Do you think B.J. Ryan will come back and be as good as ever, or could Jeremy Accardo keep the job? Thanks."

Eric: Ryan had Tommy John surgery in early-May, and the Blue Jays expect him ready for spring training. Our question is, will he be as effective? There's really no doubt that the Blue Jays want and expect him to close, considering the historic five-year contract bestowed upon him, and his track record in the role. I really don't have too many doubts about pitchers coming back from this surgery any more. We know the timetable, and it can be done effectively in less than a year. Francisco Liriano should be ready for spring training as well. This does not bode well for Accardo, but since he's merely 25 years old and handling himself well in the role, I'd think he'll get another chance to close at some point in the future.

Eric Karabell is a senior writer who covers fantasy sports for ESPN.com. E-mail him by clicking here and check out his daily blog at this link.