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July 30, 2007, 4:56 PM

Relief Efforts: Top middle men to watch

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By Eric Karabell
ESPN.com
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Things change every day in major league bullpens. One day your fantasy closer is dominating, the next he's nursing a sore arm or third in line for saves. Eric Karabell breaks down all the happenings in major league bullpens in the latest Relief Efforts.

I can't say I knew anybody who owned Luis Vizcaino in a fantasy league -- that's past tense because now I do -- because middle relievers like him generally aren't owned, nor should they be. He doesn't have a good ERA or WHIP. He doesn't pile on the strikeouts. There's little chance a save opportunity is heading his way.

Oh wait, he has eight wins in four months. That's why he has suddenly become popular.

Then again, since relief wins aren't something one can plan, and luck plays a role, Vizcaino is just as likely to win five more games the rest of the way as he is to win zero. There's no way to tell. But let's discuss the topic anyway because, despite all the pitchers who earned saves last week and including starting pitchers who had double-digit strikeouts, Vizcaino is the guy who was fantasy's most valuable pitcher -- not just middle reliever -- last week.

Questions about closers are prevalent in every chat and every message board, but the set-up men never seem to get enough love. Seeing as August is on the way, and middle relievers become far more important to the fantasy cause, it's a relevant topic. These unnoticed guys are popular now, despite not being in line for saves, because many owners simply want to lower the ol' ERA and WHIP, or they have gone over or will go over their starts/innings limits and need to dial it back.

Pick up a Pat Neshek type and you could get help in wins, strikeouts, ERA and WHIP. But it's impossible to predict the wins.

If you owned Vizcaino last week, good for you. I can't imagine too many of you are raising your hands. Vizcaino won four games last week, which isn't unprecedented (but it certainly isn't a regular occurrence). Consider that you'll never see a starting pitcher win more than twice in a week, because they can't pitch that much. Plenty of relievers will pitch four times a week, but to get so fortunate to win four times is rare. Only 12 relief pitchers have more than four wins all season!

Where does Vizcaino rank right now in the pantheon of middle relievers in fantasy? Well, he's not in my top 10, despite the wins. I focus on strikeouts and WHIP when choosing middle relievers, not the randomness of wins.

A week ago in this space, I ranked Scot Shields, Hideki Okajima, Neshek, Jonathan Broxton and Rafael Betancourt as my top five, with Rafael Soriano just missing the cut. Since writing last week's piece, Shields has pitched poorly, as has Neshek, and Broxton has received saves. Okajima is my No. 1 again!

Is Boston's top rookie the No. 1 guy on the Player Rater for middle relievers? To be eligible, you can't be one of the current 30 closers, although you can have saves, like Joakim Soria. Also, holds don't count in ESPN's standard fantasy leagues, though obviously for some of you, they do matter. I do consider them when I rank the top middle relievers, as well as the impact these guys have on ERA/WHIP, and the potential for saves.

ESPN Player Rater
1. Neshek, No. 51 among pitchers
2. Okajima, 54
3. Heath Bell, 60
4. Betancourt, 67
5. Tony Pena, 71
6. Soria, 82
7. Carlos Villanueva, 84
8. Jon Rauch, 85
9. Ryan Franklin, 89
10. Matt Guerrier, 94
11. Broxton, 97

Shields and Brandon Lyon are next in line. That's right, Shields isn't even in the top 10 for middle relievers on our Player Rater, so why did I have him No. 1 last week? Well, consistency and team performance counts, and remember, we're looking ahead for value, not behind for stats accumulated. Shields has only two wins this season. If he had two more, he'd be like fifth on the list, and wins are certainly something he's known to get. It's chance. He could win two games this week for all we know. He certainly pitches in those high-leverage situations.

So, does the fact there are 11 middle relievers among the top 100 pitchers for ESPN's standard scoring make you change your mind about their worth? I admit, it doesn't change mine much. I know how valuable these safe guys can be; they make up more than 10 percent of the top 100 for pitchers. Certainly I'd prefer a Neshek instead of a bad No. 6 starter. I won't draft a guy like Adam Eaton. I'll take the hit in wins and K's -- and it's not that large a hit -- for a safe ERA and WHIP nine times out of 10. But some of these middle relievers are on the list because of their wins (Rauch) or their abnormally-low ERA (Franklin).

Look at some of the names on the wins list for relievers, and it's clear luck plays a role. Eric O'Flaherty of the Mariners is 6-0, in only 31 1/3 innings! Jason Grilli of the Tigers has four wins, despite a 5.40 ERA and 1.47 WHIP, while Pittsburgh's Jonah Bayliss is 4-3 with a 7.53 ERA and 1.76 WHIP. Meanwhile, Kansas City's Joel Peralta leads all relievers in innings with 63, and has one only win. Four wins? Bronson Arroyo has that in 131 2/3 innings! Don't draft for wins, draft good pitchers, and hopefully the wins will come. That's true in middle relief as well as with starting pitchers.

One of my teams has become middle-relief heavy because we're allowed 120 pitching starts for the season. I knew that back in April, of course, but I didn't realize how tough it was to go with only four starting pitchers all season, then stop them at 30 starts. That's the rule, I have to abide by it, but because myself and others are over the pace, we've seen a minor dash to the Nesheks of the world. It will take time for me to lower my ERA/WHIP with middle relievers, and I believe the figure went up with Neshek's three earned runs on Tuesday, but I have no reason to believe he'll keep struggling.

My new top five middle relievers? They're in the normal spot to the right.

• Baltimore: As of this writing Chris Ray was not on the disabled list, though it's possible a move is imminent. Ray has been dealing with elbow inflammation in July, and he has a bone spur there, making it likely he'll need to miss more time. Jamie Walker has picked up the Orioles last two saves, but he's more a situational lefty. Look at how many innings he has this season, against the number of games pitched. Against Tampa Bay on Tuesday, he got to face three lefties (Akinori Iwamura, Carl Crawford, Carlos Pena), and before he induced a Pena fly out he allowed a double to B.J. Upton. I think Chad Bradford is next in line for saves, though it could be a lefty-righty platoon. Paul Shuey has not pitched well of late, and Danys Baez seems buried.

• Houston: Brad Lidge put a few men on while saving Tuesday's game against the Dodgers, but he managed to strike out Wilson Betemit and get Rafael Furcal to ground out to end the game. I think Lidge is going to remain on the Astros the rest of the season and be one of the better closers around. Lidge has allowed an earned run in only three of his last 33 outings, and Tuesday's game was the first time in six outings he hadn't fanned two or more hitters. He's fine.

• Oakland: Huston Street is back, though Alan Embree got the save Tuesday. Don't look for that to continue. I think Street is closing by the weekend.

• Philadelphia: Brett Myers should be back for the weekend, and I think he closes right away. Nothing against Antonio Alfonseca, but this is Myers' job. Should you activate Myers right away, not knowing if he's ready? I would. Note that Philly hasn't been providing many save chances as it is. As a Phillies fan, it feels like either the Phils or the opposition scores 10 runs each night. Alfonseca's save Tuesday was his third since June 11.

• Cubs: Another closer who saved a game Tuesday was Ryan Dempster, his save first since coming off a month-long DL stint. Again, like Alfonseca, Bobby Howry pitched fine in the role, but Dempster is the team's closer.

Jon (White Plains, N.Y.): "Eric, what are your thoughts on Brian Fuentes? I made a big trade to get him before the All-Star break and then he gets hurt and raises his ERA from below 2.00 to over 4.00. Now his return seems in question and he may not even resume the closer role once he gets back. I have five closers including him (using my DL spot) and wanted to use one or more to trade for a SP. Should I anticipate his return soon or will he continue to ride my bench?"

Eric: I spoke to Fuentes while in San Francisco for the All-Star game, and I certainly got the impression he wasn't badly hurt, and his return to not only the active roster but the closer role was imminent. Instead, that strained muscle under his left arm has kept him on the DL longer, while Manny Corpas has thrived. Fuentes, when right, has been a very good closer, so I don't think the team is aiming to make a switch, or holding him out longer than needed. The Rockies are just being cautious. Don't be surprised if this injury is worse than originally feared, and Fuentes misses another week or two.

Ed Verga (Saugus, Calif.): "Please help, I need saves to put me over the top in a tight 10-team mixed league. I have to choose between Jeremy Accardo or Al Reyes. Who do you choose and why? Thanks, EK."

Eric: It's a tough call, because Reyes had been so good this season until, like Fuentes, he clearly was hurt, got hit a bit and had to go to the DL. Reyes is back now, though he could also be trade bait in the next week, and one would think his next team would want him in a set-up role. I have to take Accardo for that reason, and the fact he is on a better team and has a 2.61 ERA for the season are also determining factors. Reyes could continue his fine season, in theory, but it also concerns me a bit that the Devil Rays are so bad now, particularly on the mound, there hasn't been anything to save.

Eric Karabell is a senior writer who covers fantasy sports for ESPN.com. E-mail him by clicking here and check out his daily blog at this link.