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June 6, 2008, 2:59 PM

Roberts Report: Hard-luck and good-luck pitchers

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By Brendan Roberts
ESPN.com
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I don't know about you, but when I'm looking for a starting pitcher in a 5x5 league on the free-agent wire on my league site, I sort by K's, usually over a certain time frame, and then work down the list from there.

Were I to sort by ERA and WHIP, I'd have too many middle relievers to sort through; most league sites don't differentiate between starters and relievers, and I'm not sure I'd even want them split when viewing free agents in anything but a shallow league anyway. Saves, well, that's a whole 'nother story, as readers of Eric Karabell's "Relief Efforts" and anybody with any amount of 5x5 experience know. But sorting by wins, a habit many of you out there have, can be deceiving.

Wins are often referred to as a "team stat," in that a win doesn't always represent how well a pitcher pitches on a given night, but rather it often has as much or more to do with how his team hit that night. Sure, great pitchers get wins because they give their team fewer runs to shoot for, but those pitchers also will show up just as high when you look at the other pitching categories, the categories they have a lot more to do with.

I'm not saying I grab only high-K pitchers, but I find it gives me the best starting point. Usually I sort by K's, often in the past 15 or 30 days, then glance at the ERA and WHIP as I scroll down the page, looking for an option. But wins rarely come into play unless I like the K's, percentage numbers and the name before that. Then I'll take wins into consideration.

Sorting by wins shows too many "lucky" pitchers, such as Livan Hernandez earlier this season, and puts too many "unlucky" pitchers, as you'll see below, or pitchers whose bullpens can't hold their leads, such as Hiroki Kuroda (who I wrote about a few weeks ago) down the list too far. There are too many cases of pitchers not coming away with a win because their teammates just don't happen to support them that night.

This is contrary to what baseball teams think, of course. Many years ago, I had a lengthy argument with a work colleague about how good of a gauge wins are because the sole goal for a pitcher when he starts for his team is to win the game. I was fresh off playing competitive baseball, and my thought was that since the objective is to win, the starter pitches to that objective. If he's nursing an 8-0 lead, he might throw a few more balls over the middle to avoid walks and get hit around, but still be in line for the win.

This is true to an extent, but over the years, I've definitely swung around and now believe that WHIP, ERA and K's (or K/9, really), in that order, are the true measure of a pitcher's performance. You ask any big-league starter, and he'll tell you his ultimate objective is to win. But his actual goal, the way he figures to go about earning the win, is a) not to allow baserunners and b) not to allow runs. And strikeouts show deception and dominance, since most pitchers feel it's the best result they can have. It's such a numbers game -- the numbers determine contracts, after all -- and any pitcher who allows five runs in five innings but earns the win will tell you he didn't pitch well. And it's just the opposite for a starter who pitches a gem but loses a 1-0 game. Get past the loss itself, and he'll admit he's happy with the way he pitched.

Don't overrate wins. They're not the true measure of a pitcher. First and foremost, that's what I want you take away from this column. But I feel it's also helpful to show you a little of what I'm talking about, and get into the specifics of run support.

You hear broadcasters and fantasy owners lamenting a "lack of run support" for a given pitcher on a regular basis, and it is noteworthy. But often it's used to suggest that everything will "even out," that a team will start scoring for that pitcher and the well-deserved wins will follow. This is not always the case. For example, Felix Hernandez has pitched pretty well this season but has a 3-5 record, in part because he has gotten only 2.74 runs per game of support, the second-fewest of pitchers who have averaged more than one inning per team game. But here's the deal: The Mariners are 26th in the league in runs per game. Is there any assurance here that he's going to get more runs per game in future outings? Maybe, but probably not much. The Mariners average barely four runs per game.

The distinction must be made. If it's a good offense not supporting a pitcher, that's bound to change. If it's a bad offense not supporting a pitcher, that's not. Our job is to find the "outliers," the pitchers who haven't gotten run support from a good offense, or the flip side, the pitchers who have gotten surprisingly good run support from bad offenses. Now that's when run support means something.

So here's a look at a handful of pitchers whose win-loss records reflect more of a lack of run support than just their pitching performances, despite the fact that they pitch for decent-hitting teams.

Note: The "rank" is the ranking from the bottom of the run support list. For instance, Paul Byrd and his league-low 2.54 run support average would rank first.

Some big names on that list. Aaron Harang owners know all too well his offense hasn't supported him, and I, as a Cole Hamels owner, know he has been outdueled a time or two himself. There are a few decent Oakland pitchers who could string together some wins, but the most interesting, to me, is C.C. Sabathia, who has lost a 1-0 game, a 2-1 game, a 4-2 game and a 4-1 game. He pitched well in all four of those starts. Why did I put Justin Verlander and Adam Eaton on this list? Sure, they've pitched poorly, but not poorly enough to explain their lack of wins, given the offenses supporting them.

Now we look at those pitchers whose win-loss records reflect an overabundance of run support. Given the offenses supporting these guys, we can't be so sure the win-loss record will continue to sparkle.

Note: The "rank" in this case is the ranking from the top of the run support list. For instance, Jamie Moyer and his league-high 8.40 run support average would rank first.

In most cases, owners of pitchers on this list know they've had some good fortune. Livan Hernandez is still 6-2 and does have a decent offense backing him, but he makes this list simply because his record doesn't befit his ERA and WHIP. They're ugly, but yet his wins and losses look good. Along those same lines, Brad Penny is mighty lucky to have five wins. Tim Redding, Zack Greinke and Jesse Litsch have gotten surprising run support, but they've also pitched well enough to win. No worries there. And finally, I had to include Shawn Chacon because of his lack of losses. There's no way a pitcher who has pitched like that in front of a middle-of-the pack offense should have only one loss after 12 starts.

Brendan Roberts is a contributing writer/editor for ESPN Fantasy.