July 17, 2008, 12:48 PM

Roberts Report: Buy low by trading for injured stars

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Roberts By Brendan Roberts
ESPN.com
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One of my teams could live inside a Civil War field hospital. Guys leaning on crutches, other guys moaning, and yet others stumbling around with bandages on their heads.

OK, so that's a gross exaggeration. It just feels that way to me. But what can you do, not draft injury-prone players? Well, I try to do that, and because it was an early-March draft, I made doubly sure of that. But we're talking about guys like Troy Tulowitzki, Chad Cordero, Shaun Marcum, David Ortiz and Ryan Church … guys I simply could not have foreseen injuries would strike. And a handful of times I've picked up a guy who actually has hit well, such as Elijah Dukes, and then he's gone down.

David Ortiz
Greg Fiume/Getty ImagesDavid Ortiz is about to start a rehab assignment and could be back by the end of July.
There's nothing I can do. I've tried trading, but few owners want injured players in this 14-team mixed league because they expect production right away. Trading healthy players doesn't do me much good unless it's more of a category trade (dealing for saves or power, for instance) to cover up for the injured guys. So I've had no choice but to cut quality injured players, more of them than I care to list here. It really hurts to cut a player you know could give you months of production just so you don't lose several weeks of production. I lead the league in adds/drops, and I'm not proud of that.

On another team, an ESPN-standard 10-team league, my DL slot and all three bench slots are filled with injured players (Fausto Carmona, Victor Martinez, Alfonso Soriano and Vernon Wells), so when I want to make a lineup change, I have to make it from the free-agent wire.

I'm not alone. I'd bet a good three or four teams in each league face a similar scenario. Our injury expert Stephania Bell admitted in a column last week that her poor head is spinnin' because of all the DL transactions, and the lists themselves are saturated. But there are ways for fantasy owners who have not been plagued to take advantage of this unexpected circumstance by trading for the injured.

I realize it's never an easy thing to do. You're trading for a player who is not currently playing, so instead of reviewing stat splits and trends, you're reviewing doctors' reports and trainers' quotes. That can be exhausting and tough on the stomach when a potential trade is looking close. And granted, sometimes it backfires. I traded a fringe pitcher in an NL-only league for Moises Alou when he appeared ready to return (one of the times, anyway), and now he's likely done for the season. Then again, all I lost was a fringe pitcher, and the bottom line still applies: Trading for the injured is a great way to get a good player at the bottom of his value, and if you have the bench and flexibility to take it, you could get an elite player for next to nothing.

Obviously there's risk involved, but if you're sitting in the middle of the pack, go for it. Seek out one of those three or four teams that have been injury-plagued, do your research, sweet-talk the owner and play up the possibility that he'd gain a healthy and productive player, and prey on his vulnerability. There are few worse feelings in fantasy than dropping a usable player you know will be plucked right back up by a contender. In essence, get those guys before he must make that decision.

That's enough. You know the benefits. Now it's just a matter of knowing which players to trade for. Though I'm certainly no doctor, I've been reviewing the injury reports the past few days -- hey, a fantasy nut has to have something to do, right? So I've put many of the injured mixed-league options into four categories (and stacked them by position within each), and I've noted when they're expected to return. For this list to have some "lasting power," I'm including only players on the DL (not day-to-day guys), and I'm not being so obvious as to include guys who appear to be done for the season.

Sure, you want 'em, but don't expect to get 'em

Ryan Zimmerman, 3B, Nationals (early August): Now on a rehab assignment. If his owner has waited this long for him …
Hank Blalock, 3B, Rangers (very soon): I almost put him in the "I'm stayin' away" area. That's how little I believe in his staying healthy/productive.
David Ortiz, DH, Red Sox (late July): You'd have to sell the farm to get him, and you can't be sure he'll be himself the final two months.
Erik Bedard, SP, Mariners (soon): His owners won't give up on him yet. I'm in the minority, it seems, in believing he still has great starts in him this season.
Shaun Marcum, SP, Blue Jays (late July): Due back soon, and his owners likely were happy with his fine pitching before his injury.
Bobby Jenks, RP, White Sox (soon): I'm not worried by his mild shoulder problem.

Others: Victor Martinez, C, Indians; Hideki Matsui, OF, Yankees; Alfonso Soriano, OF, Cubs; Magglio Ordonez, OF, Tigers.

I'm buyin'

Aaron Harang
Marc Serota/Getty ImagesAaron Harang's current DL stint for a forearm injury might give him the chance to clear his head and right his game.
Todd Helton, 1B, Rockies (late July): He has a season to salvage, and I think he'll do it.
Jason Bartlett, SS, Rays (late July): As long as his knee is OK, he should be able to pick up his stealing ways.
Lastings Milledge, OF, Nationals (late July): He was just starting to get things figured out when he got hurt, and he should be back in a few weeks.
Dave Roberts, OF, Giants (late July): Sure, he's still Dave Roberts, but if you're hurting for steals, they won't come as cheaply as his right now.
Vernon Wells, OF, Blue Jays (mid-August): Because he's suffering his second big injury this season, his owners are down on him. But he's been pretty durable throughout his career.
Johnny Damon, OF, Yankees (late July): Be careful not to consider him "injury-prone." The dude ran into a wall.
Juan Pierre, OF, Dodgers (early August): The guy I'm targeting the most. I think Pierre should beat his original timetable and start stealing bases immediately after his return.
Chris Young, SP, Padres (late July): He didn't suffer an arm injury, mind you, and he'll be fresh for the final two months.
Adam Wainwright, SP, Cardinals (early August): Sounds like he's rarin' to go, and I say he'll be productive right away.
Pedro Martinez and Roy Oswalt, SPs, Mets/Astros (soon): The exception to my rule, as neither is on the DL. I just wanted to say I think they'll be fine.
Aaron Harang, SP, Reds (late July): The team doesn't sound concerned about his forearm problem, and I think his rest will help him collect his thoughts. He's a great pitcher at an unreasonably low value.
J.J. Putz, RP, Mariners (late July): I don't think the M's are ready to give up on him, but considering his mostly lost season, his owners might be.

Others: Troy Tulowitzki, SS, Rockies; Michael Cuddyer, OF, Twins; Frank Thomas, DH, A's; Jeff Francis, SP, Rockies.

On the watch list, but wait until they return

Johnny Estrada, C, Nationals (late July): How much playing time will he get when he returns?
Gerald Laird, C, Rangers (soon): Playing-time issue again. Max Ramirez and Jarrod Saltalamacchia are still in the picture, and Taylor Teagarden is lurking in the minors.
Aaron Hill, 2B, Blue Jays (late July): Due back from a concussion soon, but if Ryan Church and Jim Edmonds have taught us anything, it's that Hill shouldn't be expected to be himself for a while.
Luis Castillo, 2B, Mets (late July): He might have lost at least a portion of his starting job to Damion Easley.
Julio Lugo, SS, Red Sox (late July): Placing him in this category is my way of saying I'm not impressed with him even when he's healthy.
Matt Diaz, OF, Braves (late July): He's currently on a rehab assignment and almost forgotten by fantasy owners by now.
Ryan Freel, OF, Reds (mid-August): How much will Dusty Baker play him?
Vicente Padilla, SP, Rangers (late July): Even as well as he's pitched, there hasn't been much demand for him.
Phil Hughes, SP, Yankees (mid-August): Returning is one thing, but pitching the way he's capable of is another.
Brad Penny, SP, Dodgers (late July): He might do something with a fresh arm, but we have an awfully bad taste in our mouths.
Fausto Carmona, SP, Indians (late July): As a sinkerballer, Carmona might need some time before he gets in the groove.

Others: Chris Snyder, C, Diamondbacks; Mike Napoli, C, Angels; Josh Bard, C, Padres; Tadahito Iguchi, 2B, Padres; Josh Barfield, 2B, Indians; Eric Chavez, 3B, A's; Shannon Stewart, OF, Blue Jays; Ryan Spilborghs, OF, Rockies; Kason Gabbard, SP, Rangers; Eric Hurley, SP, Rangers; Brandon McCarthy, SP, Rangers; Carl Pavano, SP, Yankees; Orlando Hernandez, SP, Mets; Jeff Suppan, SP, Brewers; Anibal Sanchez, SP, Marlins; Jeremy Accardo, RP, Blue Jays.

I'm stayin' away

Takashi Saito
Stephen Dunn/Getty ImagesTakashi Saito might not return until Septemeber, so it's hard to really buy low on him.
Bobby Crosby, SS, A's (late July): Just watch this hamstring injury linger and linger. It's the Bobby Crosby way.
Rafael Furcal, SS, Dodgers (late August): It doesn't matter how badly he wants back (no pun intended) -- his body must be willing.
Eric Byrnes, OF, Diamondbacks (September): He says he might return in September, but I don't believe that.
Elijah Dukes, OF, Nationals (late August): His knee injury could hold him out until September.
Rocco Baldelli, OF, Rays (early August): I can't say his name without shaking my head.
Ryan Church, OF, Mets (late July): I doubt he'll be the same player the rest of the season.
Travis Hafner, DH, Indians (early August): I'm not convinced he'll be able to mash when he returns.
Dustin McGowan, SP, Blue Jays (late August): There have been conflicting reports; some sources are saying he's not expected back this season.
Chris Carpenter, SP, Cardinals (mid-August): Sorry, but I think the Cards will be very careful with him when he returns.
Troy Percival, RP, Rays (late July): What's so tough to understand? We questioned his ability to stay healthy, and already he's been on the DL twice.
Rafael Soriano, RP, Braves (late July): Even when he gets healthy, I have my doubts as to whether he can stay that way.
Matt Capps, RP, Pirates (early September): Sorry, that's just too long to wait for him.
Takashi Saito, RP, Dodgers (late August?): They're now saying it could be more like September for Saito, and I think his season could be over.

Others: Michael Barrett, C, Padres; Shawn Hill, SP, Nationals; Noah Lowry, SP, Giants; Mark Mulder, SP, Cardinals; Chien-Ming Wang, SP, Yankees; Yovani Gallardo, SP, Brewers; Jason Schmidt, SP, Dodgers; Tom Glavine, SP, Braves; Mike Hampton, SP, Braves; Bartolo Colon, SP, Red Sox; Jeremy Bonderman, SP, Tigers.

Brendan Roberts is a contributing writer/editor for ESPN Fantasy.