Uncommon Thievery: Ellsbury already an elite base stealer
Prior to Sunday, Jacoby Ellsbury was a perfect 25-for-25 in stolen-base attempts in just 72 career major league games. The 24-year-old was halfway to Vince Coleman's record 50 straight swipes before he was gunned down by the battery of Carlos Villanueva and Jason Kendall on a pitchout. Ellsbury shouldn't feel too bad, though, as a career 96.4 success percentage rate isn't anything to scoff at.
So even though the kid is on pace to steal 63 bags in his first full season as a pro, I can't help but think he can do even better than that. I know that's asking for a lot, but he has all the tools to make it work.
Nate McLouth, OF, Pirates: While most folks are waiting for McLouth's power to disappear, I'm waiting for his speed skills to reappear. You might not know it by looking at his 2008 stats, but McLouth used to be one of those speed-only prospects. Sure, he showed a bit of pop for a little guy, but he never hit more than 12 home runs in his minor league career. He did, however, steal an average of 29.2 bases at an 82.5 percent success rate in five minor league seasons. The speed he showed so often in the minors hasn't disappeared; he nabbed 22 bases in 23 attempts in 2007 and holds a career 88 percent success rate. With only four swipes in seven attempts thus far this season, McLouth looks like a great buy candidate, at least in terms of stolen bases. Sure, his power might fall off a little bit, but when it does, expect him to make amends on the bases, and don't be surprised to see 25-plus stolen bases when all is said and done.
Rickie Weeks, 2B, Brewers: I would imagine that plenty of fantasy folks are starting to get a little tired of Weeks. Hitting just .200 this season, Weeks has again failed to show us why he is a perennial fantasy sleeper candidate. Still, before we tab him as a failure, we might want to check out his underlying statistics. Weeks displayed a much improved batter's eye last season, and he's building on that this year by continuing to show patience at the plate while cutting down on his strikeouts. His BB/K ratio (0.79) has improved in each of his past three seasons (0.67 in 2007, 0.33 in 2006) and his on-base percentage stands at .330, which isn't all that bad considering his poor batting average. Once he cleans up that batting average -- which should only be a matter of time -- there won't be much to complain about. He already has seven swipes in 10 attempts, and should be a good bet for at least 30 by season's end. Find an owner who's frustrated with that sub-.200 batting average and make a play for Weeks, as his underlying statistics indicate that he should break out any day now.
Shane Victorino, OF, Phillies: I know Jayson Werth is all the rage right now, but don't forget about Victorino. Victorino has struggled at the plate since returning from a calf injury, which is not surprising given that his most redeeming quality is his speed. Still, his six steals in seven attempts this month lead me to believe that his calf is 100 percent. After nabbing 37 bags in 41 attempts in 2007, it should only be a matter of time before we see Victorino near the top of the league in steals.
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Eric Byrnes, OF, Diamondbacks: I've heard some experts tab Byrnes as a great trade target, but like the title of this section, I'm not buying it. Granted, after hitting just .218 with four home runs and four stolen bases through Sunday, Byrnes has nowhere to go but up, right? The problem with that line of thinking is that most folks will believe that they are getting the 2007 version of Byrnes. Byrnes' hamstrings clearly aren't right at the moment. He hasn't stolen a base since May 7, and has just two attempts total all month! Hamstring injuries need time to heal -- more than just a night or two off -- and runners don't react very well when their legs are hurting. That said, Byrnes might continue to struggle with this injury unless the D-backs decide to put him on the disabled list to take care of those bothersome hammys.
Bobby Abreu, OF, Yankees: Abreu has stolen 20-plus bases in each of his past nine seasons. Unfortunately, that streak looks destined to end in 2008. Don't listen to the history of stats an Abreu owner might attempt to throw at you in trade negotiations. Simply put, this isn't the same fantasy superstar we once knew and loved. At age 34, his speed skills have diminished considerably, and he's at the point where he's barely even running anymore. Just five attempts despite reaching first base 47 times this season? It doesn't help that he's only been successful twice, and Abreu doesn't figure to get the green light much if he continues at his 40 percent success rate.
Derek Jeter, SS, Yankees: I don't mean to bag on the Yanks, but until Sunday night, when he finally got his first steal of the season, Jeter hadn't attempted a theft since Opening Day. We simply can't ignore the fact that he's not getting the green light from Joe Girardi. What's strange is that Girardi was super run-friendly when he managed the Marlins, but he seems to be a little gun shy with the power-oriented Yanks. It doesn't help that his team is dead last in success percentage at just 56 percent. I'd be gun shy, too, with those kind of stats. Granted, he doesn't have much speed at his disposal, but one would think that he'd at least be letting Jeter loose from time to time. The fact that he's not doesn't bode well for Jeter's stolen-base prospects.
Randy Winn, OF, Giants (27.2 percent owned): Sticking with the Giants, it is a little surprising that Winn hasn't been scooped up already as he is hitting .371 this month. I realize that he hasn't done much other than hit for average (just two homers and two steals in May), but the way he's hitting, the stolen bases should follow suit fairly quickly. Winn may be 33, but he still has speed and the 20-plus stolen-base potential he flashed a few years back. Bochy should continue to run his guys wild as the season progresses, which will also make Omar Vizquel somewhat of an intriguing pickup in deeper NL-only leagues. Vizquel does not possess the pure speed he once did, but he's an extremely smart baserunner and will steal a fair amount of bases as long as his 41-year-old legs will allow him.
Jerry Hairston Jr., SS, Reds (1.5 percent owned): With Jeff Keppinger on the shelf for the next 4-6 weeks, Hairston and Paul Janish will battle it out for the vacant shortstop gig in Cincinnati. Hairston shouldn't have too much of a problem winning this battle, and that will give him some extra at-bats to build on his four steals in 21 games this season. Hairston is the type of player who always had 25-plus stolen base potential, but has never had an opportunity for regular at-bats. Now that he has the at-bats, owners in deeper mixed and NL-only formats should take a look to see what he can do with the opportunity.
Rajai Davis, OF, Athletics (1.0 percent owned): The A's won't steal all that often, but they will put their runners in motion more often than one might think, with 21 steals in 27 attempts thus far. You should already know about Davis' pure speed (he stole 17 bags in just 142 at-bats in 2007), so he should be able to act as a one-category specialist as long as he continues to get at-bats in Oakland. Davis has made his speed known during his short stint with his new club, going 3-for-4 on steals despite reaching first base just eight times. That means he's attempting a steal 50 percent of the time he reaches first base, which a good sign for any baserunner, let alone one with his speed.
Maicer Izturis, 2B, Angels (0.4 percent owned): When in doubt, go with an Angel. A Mike Scioscia-managed team is almost always near the top of the league in thefts and attempted thefts, and this year has been no different. I like teammate Erick Aybar much better, but Aybar injured his finger Tuesday and may go on the DL, so those in deeper leagues will have to settle for the lesser-known Izturis. Izturis is already 6-for-6 on steals this season and is a highly efficient baserunner with a career 80 percent success rate at the major league level. He will continue to earn playing time all over the diamond while Chone Figgins and Howie Kendrick are on the mend, and should be looked at as a solid short-term addition for the stolen-base category.
As we discussed last month, the relative scarcity of the stolen base category should be on every fantasy owner's mind this season. By now, most folks know that the value of a stolen base isn't what it was from 2002-2006. But we still need to continue to monitor the situation just in case the current trends reverse themselves. With that in mind, we'll finish this column off with a look at the current state of the stolen base:
Brian McKitish is an award-winning fantasy baseball and basketball analyst for ESPN.com.