The Talented Mr. Roto: All's fair in love and Tout Wars
"Matthew,
"This is probably not the very best moment, but I feel like we should talk about the other night.
"I'm so sorry for being a little weird 'after.' The truth is (and I hate that I'm writing this email), I made a mistake inviting you up to my room not because you're not awesome or interesting or cool, or that I didn't have an excellent time but because it was a really irresponsible decision for me to make at that moment. I had an incredibly emotional week (work stuff, family stuff, relationship stuff), and I obviously went a little crazy. I was totally swept up in the moment. I loved hanging out with you. I think you're awesome -- smart, funny, charming, really cool -- just amazing.
"But I also know that I'm a mess right now. I realize that you're not asking me for anything. So the fact that I sound like I'm making lame excuses is probably more annoying than anything. I just didn't want more time to go by without addressing it at least a little bit.
"I am around this weekend and totally reachable on my cell if you want to chat."
Yeah I, um, didn't call.
You know it's weird. Normally when I have a crazy chick story, I have to write it up. Do the whole story, set the scene, tighten details to make it readable and funny and interesting.
But every once in a while, one falls in your lap and you really have to only cut, paste and delete the name. And yes, that note came after our first date. Welcome to my world.
And yes, frankly, I'm as perplexed as you are.
There's a lot in this world I don't understand and the opposite sex is top of the list. So is my Tout Wars team. Neither makes any sense at all to me, and yet
I still very much like women. And you know what? I still like my Tout Wars team. But neither makes any sense to me. The women, well, that's self-explanatory, and you haven't even heard the five other stories I'm still sitting on. And my Tout Wars team is currently 11th out of 12 teams. Barely.
The natural instinct here is to panic. It's the middle of May. My team is as dead as can be in a very deep league (AL-only, 12 teams, 29 man rosters, unlimited DL, 5x5) that is filled with other experts. And of the past 10 women I've gone on dates with, hung out with, played Madden with, what have you only one of them wasn't completely bonkers.
But I am not panicking. First, regarding the women: Eventually, I'll find one who's the "fun" crazy and not the "crazy" crazy. Second, my team will come around. Look at this team (again, remember, this is a very deep AL-only league) as of last Friday.

C Toby Hall
1B Ryan Garko
2B B.J. Upton
SS Derek Jeter
3B Miguel Cabrera
CI Richie Sexson
MI Sean Rodriguez
OF Vladimir Guerrero
OF David Murphy
OF Kevin Mench
OF Reed Johnson
OF David Dellucci
DH Travis Hafner
P Erik Bedard
P Fausto Carmona
P Kenny Rogers
P Jesse Carlson
P Alan Embree
P Keith Foulke
P Eddie Guardado
P Santiago Casilla
P C.J. Wilson
Bench: Alberto Gonzalez, Mark Lowe, Josh Barfield, Andrew Brown, Bartolo Colon, Sidney Ponson
Disabled list: Willy Aybar, Danny Richar, Curt Schilling, Joel Zumaya, Dustin Moseley.
So, I knew coming out of the draft that I would clearly be in need of strikeouts. I had left the draft with the idea that I would finish middle of the pack in strikeouts and have a low ERA and WHIP (and that was assuming I wouldn't need to use Kenny Rogers for wins). I also thought I would need some speed. I'm not as concerned about that because I believe Jeter will eventually steal and there will be speed to grab or trade for later.
I made a small trade Friday, sending away Hafner and Colon for A.J. Burnett and Erick Aybar. Erick Aybar gives me a little bit of speed and positional flexibility; Burnett is better than he has shown so far and will get me strikeouts (and looked good in his first start for me against the Phillies. The league has a Saturday-to-Friday week.)
I think Hafner is done. The real key here is Colon. If he is back, I lose this trade. If he is still Big and Fat, I win this trade running away. But my basic take was that I felt Colon's highest trade value was right now, in the unknown that exists before Wednesday's start. Because if he gets shelled, he's worthless.
So that was the thought process behind the deal. But I'm not making any other moves for a while and I will tell you why. Although, if you've been paying attention, you know why.
I like this team.
Maybe I am wrong. Been wrong before. It's killing me to stand pat and not to do more. But I look at this and I say, You know what? That's a good team. Here's the team again, post-trade and with my comments on each player.
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C Toby Hall -- See Melhuse, Adam.
1B Ryan Garko -- Past two years, post-All-Star: 19 home runs, 74 RBIs
2B B.J. Upton -- Just need him to steal a little more.
SS Derek Jeter -- Is there anyone more dependable? Upside might not be there, but you know he'll be fine.
3B Miguel Cabrera -- Another guy who is money. Has hit at least .320 with 114 RBIs in each of the past three years.
CI Richie Sexson -- The power is back. And I knew the batting average would be terrible. Hence Jeter and Cabrera.
MI Sean Rodriguez -- Just a fill in guy until Richar comes back (he said hopefully).
OF Vladimir Guerrero -- I know. Declining numbers. But just because he's a second-round guy instead of a first-rounder doesn't mean he won't eventually hit. He's only 32 and has hit .331 post-All-Star-break the past three years.
OF David Murphy -- No complaints so far. Been a nice surprise.
OF Kevin Mench -- Happy he's getting playing time. Not happy he's using it to run into outfield fences.
OF Reed Johnson -- Been very solid for the Cubs. (We drafted before he was released by the Blue Jays.)
OF David Dellucci -- He'll finish with about 15 home runs and, for a buck in the end game, I will take that every time.
DH Erick Aybar -- Hoping for 15 steals, I'm expecting 10.
P Erik Bedard -- A notoriously slow starter, he's starting to be the guy I paid for.
P Fausto Carmona -- Another guy who came on in the second half.
P A.J. Burnett -- See my trade analysis above. Twenty-five strikeouts in his past 20 innings.
P Kenny Rogers -- Only because I think he gets a win this week. Then he's back on the bench.
P Jesse Carlson -- Will keep WHIP and ERA down and might get a few vulture wins and saves.
P Alan Embree -- See Carlson, Jesse.
P Keith Foulke -- See Embree, Alan.
P Eddie Guardado -- C.J. Wilson handcuff.
P C.J. Wilson -- My closer. Because I don't pay for saves.
Bench: Alberto Gonzalez, Mark Lowe, Josh Barfield, Andrew Brown, Sidney Ponson.
Disabled list: Willy Aybar, Danny Richar, Curt Schilling, Joel Zumaya, Dustin Moseley, Santiago Casilla.
Losing Casilla hurts, but if I can get something out of Schilling and Richar over the second half I like this team.
And that's what I want to impart here. I realize Quintong is over there telling you who to bail on, and, in most cases, he's right. I just told you that I'm bailing on Hafner. And Ian Snell is off almost all my teams now. But generally speaking, I'm a big "patience" guy.
So look at your team. Where do you need to improve? And where do you just need to be patient? I'm not getting nearly as many e-mails about Ryan Braun as I was a week ago, you know? And all those Adam Dunn owners are freaking out a little less after four straight games with home runs.
I'll just finish by saying that, in addition to the guys on my Tout Wars teams, here's a list of guys, in no particular order, whom I am not worried about and feel will return at least close to the value you paid for at the draft.
1. Ryan Howard
2. Prince Fielder
3. Randy Johnson
4. Mark Teixeira
5. Jeff Francoeur
6. Nick Swisher
7. Victor Martinez (the power)
8. Brad Hawpe
9. Roy Oswalt
10. Billy Butler
11. Jose Guillen
12. Gary Matthews Jr.
13. Jered Weaver
14. Jeff Kent
15. Corey Hart (the power)
16. Michael Cuddyer
17. Robinson Cano
18. Carlos Delgado (I swear, if I lose the league I own him in by one home run
)
19. Frank Thomas
20. Kurt Suzuki
21. Kevin Kouzmanoff
22. Khalil Greene (the average won't, but the power will come)
23. Kenji Johjima
24. Ramon Hernandez
25. Troy Glaus
26. Carlos Pena
27. Alex Rios (power and average)
28. Ryan Zimmerman (the average)
29. Ubaldo Jimenez
30. Jose Reyes
And if I did not mention them -- like Brett Myers, for example -- yeah, I am genuinely worried.
Matthew Berry -- The Talented Mr. Roto -- is ESPN's senior director of fantasy. He was just as surprised as you to find out it's a real job. He is a multiple award winner from the Fantasy Sports Writers Association, including a Writer of the Year award. He has been playing fantasy sports for more than 20 years, writing about it professionally for more than 10. He currently appears on or in ESPN, ESPN2, ESPNEWS, ESPN the Magazine, ESPN.com, ESPN Mobile TV and, as soon as he learns to say "ground-ball/fly-ball ratio" in Spanish, ESPN Deportes. He remains single and optimistic.

