Rookie Report
The fantasy crowd always loves rookies. We all crave their upside, and because we do, we almost always end up overrating them. When you really think about it, it's a pretty rare occurrence for a rookie to step in and make his mark on the fantasy world right away.
Take a look back over the past few years and name the rookies who have had an immediate fantasy impact for the duration of their rookie campaign. It's a short list, with Chris Paul, Emeka Okafor and Brandon Roy leading the way. Most of your rooks will take at least half of their inaugural season to get their feet wet (think Rudy Gay and Rajon Rondo in 2006-07 or Raymond Felton in 2005-06), and even more will take a year or two to develop like Deron Williams and Al Jefferson.
Needless to say, there's a whole lot of uncertainty when it comes to dealing with rookies in fantasy leagues. That doesn't mean you should avoid them completely, but owners should be aware that many in your league will look to draft rookies with upside over proven veterans in the mid-to-late rounds. Once the early optimism wears off, however, (it only takes about two weeks; we fantasy owners are quite the impatient bunch, as you may know) you can expect to see most of those rookies hanging around on the waiver wire.
Take Randy Foye in 2006-07 for example. Many owners projected Foye to be right up there in the running for Rookie of the Year honors with Roy, and he was drafted accordingly, just a few spots after Roy in most of the drafts I participated in. Two-to-three weeks later, Foye was a regular among the waiver-wire crowd, and he actually made for a nice pickup later in the season when he started earning more minutes. Foye's first-year experience is pretty standard for many talented rookies. It happened to Williams, Felton, and it's sure to happen to someone again this season.
That said, the best strategy to take when it comes to rookies may be to leave many of them alone on draft day. Why draft them when you can scoop them up halfway through the season after they start to earn quality minutes? Don't fear the Rookie Wall. The fact is, most rookies are far more productive after the All-Star break. The Rookie Wall only applies to players like Kevin Durant, who will actually earn 30-35 minutes per game from the beginning of the season.
With that in mind, let's take a look a look at which rookies you may want to consider on draft day, and which ones you'll want to hold off on until they start earning enough minutes to make a difference.
1. Kevin Durant, SF, SuperSonics: I'm not telling you anything you don't already know when I say that Durant will easily be the most productive fantasy rookie, now that Greg Oden is out for the year. Actually, Durant would have been the most productive rookie anyway, but that's a debate we'll have to tackle again next year. With Ray Allen and Rashard Lewis out of town, Durant will be asked to carry most of the scoring load in Seattle, and that's a role in which he should be able to excel. His biggest fantasy asset, however, is his potential to dominate multiple categories, a la Shawn Marion. In a few years (maybe even as early as next year) he'll be just as productive, if not more productive than The Matrix. For this season, however, we can expect a Matrix-light output from him, with solid numbers in points, 3's, boards, steals and blocks. The only real question for Durant this season is where do you draft him? There are a lot of folks reaching for him as early as the third round, but I'd rather hold off until the late fourth, and if that means I don't get my hands on him, so be it.
2. Al Thornton, F, Clippers: Prior to Elton Brand's injury, Thornton looked to be one of those rookies who would take at least a year to develop. But with Brand out, he's going to get thrown into the mix right away, and he'll have to refine that raw talent of his rather quickly. If you're expecting consistency, you might want to try your chances with somebody else, because Thornton will be anything but consistent. He will, however, have enough brilliant moments to justify his selection. Despite the addition of Ruben Patterson, it's still looking like Thornton will see 27-30 minutes per game, and it wouldn't be surprising to see him take the starting power forward spot away from Tim Thomas halfway through the season. Look to grab Thornton as a high-upside flier anytime after the 10th round.
3. Al Horford, PF, Hawks: The Hawks may have an embarrassment of riches at the forward position, but they don't have anyone quite like Horford -- you know, the kind of forward who isn't afraid to stick his nose in the action under the boards. As far as the power forward position goes, I'm thinking the gig is Horford's. Sure, the Hawks can rotate Josh Smith or Marvin Williams down low, but they lose a lot in terms of defensive positioning and rebounding when they do that. Horford may not start right away, but as the season moves along, he should be able to secure himself a starting job in which he'll likely average 10 points, 8 rebounds and a block per game.
4. Mike Conley Jr., PG, Grizzlies: Conley certainly has the talent and skills to be an immediate fantasy contributor, but there are also a lot of factors working against him. First, he's not going to hit many 3-pointers -- he hit just 21, or 0.5 per game, at the college level last season. Secondly, he's not a great free-throw shooter, having hit just 69.4 percent of his attempts at Ohio State. If he's not going to hit 3s or shoot well from the line, we'll need Conley to be dominant in the other areas of his game to earn his fantasy keep. Unfortunately he won't be, not this year at least. Sure, he'll be able to pile up the assists and steals, but I don't think he'll be better than a guy like Rondo, do you? It's also important to note that Memphis has another young point guard in Kyle Lowry who deserves minutes. It wouldn't be surprising to see the Grizzlies splitting point guard minutes between the two youngsters all season long.
5. Jeff Green, SF, SuperSonics: Green is definitely NBA-ready, but he lacks one standout skill and is almost too unselfish on the court. We've all seen Green at Georgetown and we know he's more than just a solid player, but his stats will suffer due to the aforementioned unselfishness. I'll never knock a player for placing a priority on the team, but in the fantasy game, we look for stats, not wins. That said, Green should be one of the more productive rookies this season; he'll be able to step in and play right away with the Sonics. Still, his upside this season is fairly limited as he's likely to be serviceable in all categories but dominant in none.
6. Acie Law IV, PG, Hawks: Atlanta may have a glaring weakness at point guard, but it still has a few guys who can push Law for minutes. When it's all said and done, Law should come out on top, but that's not a guarantee with Speedy Claxton, Tyronn Lue and Anthony Johnson all fighting for the starting gig. We'll have to watch the Hawks training camp situation closely; Law has some solid upside in points, assists and steals if he can secure himself 25-30 minutes per game.
7. Corey Brewer, SF, Timberwolves: Brewer is stuck in a tough situation in Minnesota. The Timberwolves are going with the youth movement approach, which would normally mean that he'd see a bunch of minutes in his rookie season. Unfortunately, the Wolves have a few too many youngsters that need to see the court. Along with Brewer, the Wolves need to find time for Ricky Davis (the veteran in the group), Ryan Gomes, Gerald Green and Rashad McCants. That's a logjam if I've ever seen one. Brewer will probably be waiver-wire fodder to start the season; he'll lack the minutes needed to make a major impact. Still, owners would be wise to monitor his minutes closely throughout the season as there is some nice upside here.
8. Yi Jianlian, F, Bucks: The good news is that Yi has reportedly been promised 20-25 minutes per game in his rookie season, and that alone makes him a worthy late-round selection in fantasy leagues. The bad news is that he may be too inexperienced to do much of anything with those minutes. There will be times when he'll "wow" us, and I'm sure he's going to have some stretches in which he'll provide some nice fantasy value, but if you're expecting consistency, you might want to look in another direction.
Remember, most rookies are more productive after the All-Star break. The following players are the ones you should keep a close eye on during training camp and as the season progresses:
9. Marco Belinelli, SG, Warriors: Two words. Monta Ellis. Belinelli is a great fit for the Warriors, but Ellis is even better, and the rookie may need an injury to the man ahead of him in order to produce in the fantasy world this season. Granted, Belinelli looked fantastic in summer league play, but that doesn't mean he'll see a ton of minutes right away; and it certainly doesn't mean we should think of him as anything other than a late-round flier on draft day.
10. Joakim Noah, PF, Bulls: Noah's value will depend largely on how he's used in Scott Skiles' rotation. He's a high-energy type of guy with the ability to contribute in rebounds, steals and blocks, but the presence of Tyrus Thomas will likely limit Noah's playing time in his rookie season. Keep a lookout for how he's fitting in with the squad early in the preseason and be ready to take a late-round gamble on him if it's looking like he's going to earn quality minutes.
11. Morris Almond, SG, Jazz: Morris Almond, meet Jerry Sloan. In case you haven't heard, Sloan has never been too fond of rookies. I mean, if Williams didn't have much value in his rookie season, what's giving me high hopes for Almond? Well, the dude is a perfect fit for this squad, bringing the long-distance shooting that the Jazz desperately need. I like the way Almond fits here, but Sloan and rookies don't mix, so we may have to wait a little while before we see much out of Almond.
12. Glen Davis, PF, Celtics: Big Baby gets a mention here due to the lack depth on Boston's bench, in particular their lack of depth in the frontcourt. Let me ask you a question: As the Celtics roster stands right now, who's backing up Kevin Garnett and Kendrick Perkins down low? Big Baby is the answer, and although I don't think he'll have too much value unless an injury strikes, he's certainly one to keep an eye on.
13. Thaddeus Young, F, 76ers: Young has a heck of a lot of upside, but his youth will likely make him one of those inconsistent youngsters who will only show glimpses of brilliance in his rookie season. Look for Young to come on a little more in the second half of the season, once the Sixers fully commit to the youth movement.
14. Brandan Wright, PF, Warriors: Wright, like Young, has big-time upside, and he's the type of big man who can excel in Golden State's up-tempo offense. Unfortunately, he is still way too raw and inexperienced to make an immediate impact this season. Due to the Warriors' lack of team size, Wright could potentially sneak up on folks, but it will probably take an injury to Andris Biedrins for him to have much value this season.
15. Spencer Hawes, C, Kings: I'm not a huge fan of Hawes, and I'm even less of a fan this season; he'll have to battle Brad Miller, Shareef Abdur-Rahim, Kenny Thomas, Mikki Moore and Justin Williams for playing time. There are just too many mediocre big men in Sacramento for Hawes to really make a fantasy difference this season.
16. Julian Wright, F, Hornets: Wright is one of those high-upside players who's still a few years away from making his mark on the league. The addition of Morris Peterson in New Orleans doesn't do him any favors, so he's likely to watch most of the action from the bench in his rookie season.
17. Nick Young, SF, Wizards: When the Wizards re-signed DeShawn Stevenson, they pretty much sealed Young's fate as a fantasy contributor this season. And even if he can find his way onto the court, there's not much room for a fourth option with the Big Three around.
18. Rodney Stuckey, G, Pistons: If this guy landed anywhere other than Detroit, he'd easily be one of the top fantasy rookie prospects this season. He's ready to contribute right now, but is unlikely to see much of the court with iron men Chauncey Billups and Richard Hamilton ahead of him on the depth chart.
19. Sean Williams, PF, Nets: Williams was a disappointment during summer league play, but that doesn't negate the fact that he'll be a serious shot-blocking force if he ever gets on the court. The addition of Jamaal Magloire is a serious blow to Williams' fantasy value, as there's no longer a gaping hole in the Nets frontcourt.
Brian McKitish is a fantasy baseball and basketball analyst for ESPN.com. He can be reached at Littlemac@TalentedMrRoto.com.
