If You're Hardcore ...: Preseason sleepers
Sometimes a seemingly small decision can produce a remarkable outcome. Like years ago when my father was working at a construction site and caught a glimpse of something shiny in the freshly graded dirt. He decided to investigate. Turned out what he'd spotted was a $5 gold piece, minted in 1880. As old coins go, it's not insanely valuable -- it's worth around $1,000 the last I checked -- but it's one fine find.
By the time you reach the late rounds of your fantasy hoops draft, you'll be confronted with a litany of seemingly small choices. It'll take a bit of digging to come away with some gems of your own.
From the start of NBA training camps to your fantasy draft, plenty of dirt will be turned up around you. Today, for instance, we don't know who the Hawks' starting point guard will be, but we should know more once we hit mid-to-late October. Is Acie Law really up to running a pro offense from day one? That the team spent its 10th overall pick on him is certainly a significant show of faith. Still, Atlanta also has Speedy Claxton, Tyronn Lue and Anthony Johnson at the position. The first two, at least, are potentially productive but also reliably inconsistent and injury-prone veterans. So who ends up dishing it to Joe Johnson, Josh Smith and crew? The point guard situation is one reason Atlanta's camp should be pretty compelling.
Now if you noticed that I just used the word compelling to describe the Atlanta Hawks, and this makes perfect sense to you, you're probably a serious fantasy hoops player. And if you're serious, I'm glad you're here. What follows is a quick list of some potential deep sleepers for the 2007-08 season. We call them deep sleepers because these names here are worth watching particularly for those in deep, deep leagues. Like me, for instance -- my primary league consists of 20 teams, each stocked with 10 players and run by one box score mining, crazy, hard-core owner.
If you're participating in such a league for the first time, here's some input from a grizzled, obsessive vet: In a large league, I believe that drafting well -- from top to bottom -- is almost a necessity. It's great to score LeBron, KG or Kobe in the first round, but when 100-some players are off the board and you still have three or four picks to make, you need to keep making the right calls if you want to have a successful team. In a standard-sized league, it's fairly easy to erase a draft-day mistake through free agency. Not here. Real difference makers like an Al Jefferson, who was left out of many drafts last year, will be long gone. And when this season's Matt Barnes -- that unknown who suddenly starts filling it up -- emerges, you won't get him unless you see him coming a mile away.
So, if you're playing in a large league, have a good draft. No, have a great draft. And with that, let's get to some deep-league sleepers.
In a hard-core league, fill-in players have value. For instance, Jose Calderon is on a roster -- not because T.J. Ford just turned his ankle and will miss two weeks, but because that very thing will probably happen at least once this season. One thing that's going to happen to the Kings is they'll start the season without Ron Artest, who will serve a seven-game suspension after pleading no contest in a 2006 domestic violence case this summer. Artest's absence figures to mean ample playing time for the 25-year-old Garcia, who averaged 26 minutes, 13.1 points, a 3-pointer and nearly a steal and a block a night over the final 11 games of the 2006-07 season. And if Garcia starts this season the way he finished the last one, he could end up being more than just a fill-in.
I've always liked Garcia, because he's a guard-eligible player who blocks shots. Then again, I just like blocked shots in general. So if you're thinking that I really like Swift, well, you're right, and thanks for following along. Two years ago, Swift averaged 1.2 blocks while seeing only 21 minutes a night. That made him a sleeper going into last season. The ACL injury that kept Swift sidelined for all of 2006-07 makes him a deep sleeper going into this season. In contrast to Garcia, whom you'll want for the start of the season, it'd be wise to be patient with the 21-year-old Swift. Seattle brought in Kurt Thomas, and it makes sense that the Sonics will rely on the veteran while easing Swift back into action. That said, the early signs are promising. According to new Sonics coach P.J. Carlesimo, Swift was a warrior in rehab, during which he added about 30 pounds of muscle to his 7-foot frame. Don't forget about this kid.
It's probably stretching it to put the 21-year-old on a list of deep sleepers, what with those Tar-Heels-national-championship, second-pick-of-the-draft factoids stocking his résumé. Like his North Carolina teammate above, Williams was injured for a good part of 2006-07. He broke his hand early in the season and then sat the final six weeks with a calf injury. However, Williams appears healthy and -- for what it's worth -- motivated for the upcoming season. He and his teammates eagerly took part in pre-training camp workouts at Joe Johnson's urging. "You can tell by these workouts that guys are really committed to coming back and having a better season," Williams told the Atlanta Journal-Constitution. "Nobody liked the way last season ended. What's exciting is to see everybody in here working hard and doing it together."
Greg Oden sitting out the season is bad, but Outlaw getting more playing time is good. The 23-year-old was one of those rare in-season deep-league finds last season, when he averaged 0.9 steals and 1.1 blocks despite playing only 23 minutes a night. As our Brian McKitish notes in a recent Offseason Notebook column -- another valuable resource for the deep-leaguer, incidentally -- Outlaw is no lock to produce, but there's that upside. And at the end of a deep-league draft, upside is what you're looking for.
With the preseason well underway, some other deep sleepers are turning up. Keep an eye on these guys:
A year ago, Jerry Sloan was saying nice things about Deron Williams. Now he's saying nice things about another second-year player, Brewer. The Arkansas product has led the Jazz in scoring in each of their first three preseason games, but Sloan's endorsement means as much to me as the stats.
"Ronnie has played well from the beginning," Sloan told the Associated Press. "I thought he had a very good training camp. He's been a lot more focused on what he is doing."
With Derek Fisher's departure, Brewer has a chance to start alongside Williams in the Utah backcourt. If that's the case, double-digit scoring and 1.5 steals a night seem like reasonable expectations.
I like Sloan because he speaks his mind. I like Don Nelson for the same reason. But the problem there is, when Nellie speaks his mind, it's often accompanied by a change of heart. Nevertheless, early in camp Nelson said that Belinelli, who played professionally in Italy for five seasons, had starter written all over him. Belinelli is said to be a dazzling offensive player who can score from long range and take it to the hole. But Azubuike, who arrived in Oakland last year from the D-League, opened some eyes by totaling 49 points in Golden State's first two preseason games. He's said to be more comfortable with Golden State's offense this season. Belinelli should get drafted in most leagues, but at the end of deep-league drafts I'd certainly consider Azubuike.
Deep-leaguers are aware of Ariza's potential to pile up steals, so this is just a reminder. After missing considerable time in 2006-07 with a knee injury, the 22-year-old ball-hawk is again healthy. Orlando's new coach, Stan Van Gundy, sees a team with Dwight Howard and no other legitimate rebounders, and he knows he needs Ariza to pick it up in that area. "Trevor is going to play," the coach told the Orlando Sentinel. "He does things that we don't have anywhere else. He's unique on this team. He's a runner, a cutter, more than anyone else we have."
The second-year pro has scored 62 points in just 86 minutes this preseason, highlighted by a 33-point showing against New Jersey on Oct. 12. The 6-foot-1 Williams is small for a shooting guard, but because the Sixers are apparently convinced that Kyle Korver is more valuable coming off the bench, he could end up in the starting backcourt with Andre Miller.
Let's see, with the revamped Celtics, the offensive pecking order starts with Kevin Garnett, Paul Pierce and Ray Allen. Then there's Rajon Rondo. After that, you have the legends of Bill Russell, Larry Bird and Hondo, followed closely by the stogie-puffing Ghost of Auerbach. After that, there might be an opportunity for Boston's center to get in on the act. Needless to say, Doc Rivers isn't staying up nights to draw up plays for Perkins. But he's still a starter in the Association, and one with the potential to average 1.5 blocks. So in deep leagues, he's well worth a look as a second (or third) center. But if you don't buy into the injury-plagued Perkins, keep an eye on Boston's center spot anyway. Esteban Batista, who had a strong showing for Uruguay in the FIBA championships, lingers.
With Etan Thomas recovering from heart surgery, it appears that Blatche is now Brendan Haywood's backup. Haywood's never been known for his work ethic, so if the 6-foot-11 Blatche can hang with Eastern Conference big men, he could be a fantasy asset. In 13 starts last season, Blatche averaged 6.9 points, 5.9 rebounds and 1.2 blocks.
The 31-year-old played in only 28 games last season, but Rick Adelman's arrival may be a sign of good things for Wells, who averaged 13.6 points, 7.7 rebounds and 1.8 steals with Adelman in Sacramento two seasons ago. Wells appears to be fully recovered from a groin injury he sustained early in camp.
Simmons missed all of last season with a foot injury, and he probably won't receive major minutes to start this season. But you have to think that a healthy Simmons could eventually supplant Desmond Mason in Milwaukee's starting lineup. He probably isn't worth a draft pick, but watch him in the early part of the season.
The season hasn't started, but the Bobcats are already running out of big men. Sean May is done for the season, Othella Harrington is recovering from knee surgery and Primoz Brezec has yet to appear in camp due to personal reasons. With all that, and their reluctance to use the 6-foot-9 Emeka Okafor at center, Hollins could end up starting for this team. The 7-footer is slim, at 240 pounds, but he's also a gifted athlete, having been a high- and triple-jumper at UCLA. If he plays, he's a cinch to average a block-plus, but whether he gives fantasy owners much else is questionable.
Chuck Hayes was adequate last season, but at 6-foot-6 he's out of posiition as Houston's power forward. Enter Scola. Acquired from San Antonio in the offseason, Scola could emerge as a starter. The Argentine has offensive skills -- while playing in Spain last season, he earned league MVP honors. A solid sleeper candidate.
