<
>

2010-2011 Fantasy Hoops Rankings

7/9/2010

Move over, LeBron, there's a new King of fantasy hoops. That's right, I said it. When LeBron James announced that he'd be joining Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh in Miami, Kevin Durant officially became the best fantasy hoops player in the land. In fact, with the move to Miami, LeBron drops all the way to No. 3 (behind Durant and Chris Paul) in the newest top-150 rankings.

Why, you ask? Well, just ask Kevin Garnett, Paul Pierce and Ray Allen how they fared when the Big Three first got together. Sure they won a championship, but in fantasy hoops we don't care about championships, we care about numbers and numbers only. If history has taught us anything, we know that when elite players get together on the same team, someone (typically everyone) has to sacrifice statistics to make things work. Will LeBron, Wade and Bosh still be fantasy studs? Sure, but not to the same extent that they were in the past. And to be honest, the difference at the top of the fantasy ranks is fairly slim, so any decrease in production is going to sway the rankings drastically.

While Thursday night might have been all about LeBron, the past two weeks have been a whirlwind of free-agent signings with heavy fantasy impact. To say that a lot has changed since our most recent rankings would be a gross understatement. James, Bosh and Wade in Miami? Amare Stoudemire in New York? Carlos Boozer in Chicago? Yeah, the fantasy implications are downright enormous.

  Moving Up

Paul Millsap, PF, Jazz -- Moving Millsap up to 46 in the rankings may seem like a big jump until you see just how productive he's been with Boozer or Mehmet Okur out of the lineup. Remember, this is a guy who has averaged 15.9 points, 9.9 rebounds, 2.5 assists, 1.2 steals and 1.1 blocks while shooting 53.9 percent from the floor in 49 career starts. With Boozer now in Chicago, Millsap should at least match those numbers in 2010-11.

Antawn Jamison, PF, Cavaliers -- With LeBron now gone, Jamison will easily return to his 20/10 ways as the main scoring option in Cleveland. I should note that Mo Williams will take on more of the scoring load to compensate for the loss of James. That means both will see a decrease in their field-goal percentage and an increase in turnovers, but a bump in other numbers, particularly scoring average.

Jason Richardson, SG, Suns -- Someone has to pick up the scoring slack for Stoudemire. That someone will almost definitely be Richardson.

Andrea Bargnani, PF/C, Raptors -- Bargnani, who averaged career highs of 17.2 points, 6.1 rebounds, 1.4 blocks and 1.5 3-pointers in 2009-10, will be asked to carry a much heavier workload now that Bosh has left town. With the increased responsibility, expect him to improve on his career highs in every category except for field-goal percentage, which is likely to drop now that Bosh is gone.

Robin Lopez, C, Suns -- Sleeper alert! Lopez averaged 11.3 points, 6.2 rebounds and 1.1 blocks per game in 31 starts last season. There is no doubt that he has the ability to improve on those numbers with increased minutes and opportunities in Phoenix.

David Lee, C/PF, Warriors -- It was starting to look pretty grim for those holding onto Lee in keeper leagues, but that was before the he agreed to a sign-and-trade with the Golden State Warriors for Anthony Randolph, Kelenna Azubuike and Ronny Turiaf. The move all but assures that Lee will maintain his fantasy value as a dominant 20/10 player in 2010-11. The Warriors and Knicks have similar styles of play, and there is no reason to think that Lee won't be as effective in the West as he was in the East.

Anthony Randolph, PF/SF, Knicks -- I cannot begin to tell you how excited I am about Randolph's fantasy prospects in New York. I am convinced that the only thing holding Randolph back from being an elite fantasy performer was his lack of playing time in Golden State (well, and his injury last season). Now safe from Don Nelson's doghouse, Randolph is sure to earn plenty of run for Mike D'Antoni in New York. To give you an idea of the potential this kid has, Randolph has averaged 11.0 points, 7.9 rebounds, 1.6 blocks and a steal in just 25.1 minutes in 30 starts during his NBA career. That's some production given the lack of minutes, folks. I know you probably heard this last year, but give the kid another chance and expect a breakout season now that he's likely to see upward of 30-35 minutes per game in New York.

Kelenna Azubuike, SF/SG, Knicks -- While there's still a chance that Azubuike won't be completely healthy to start the season (knee), he's still looking like a great fit for the Knicks. 'Buike proved in Golden State that he can produce if given minutes, and he's likely to receive 28-32 minutes in New York, as his style of play is well-suited for D'Antoni's offense.

Slight upgrades: Memo Okur, Derrick Rose, Channing Frye, Hedo Turkoglu, Wesley Matthews, Jamario Moon.

  Moving Down

Miami Heat -- The Heat now have two players in LeBron and Wade that like to dominate the basketball. How the two co-exist remains to be seen, but I'm pretty confident that both James and Wade will see a fairly significant decrease in scoring, and potentially assists, as well. As for Bosh, he's not going to be scoring 22-24 points per game anymore. He'll still get his rebounds and have great percentages, but I'm afraid he'll be scoring closer to 17-18 points per game in Miami.

Carlos Boozer, PF, Bulls -- I may be in the minority with this opinion, but I think Boozer loses some value with his move to Chicago. Not only do the Bulls have more scoring options (Rose, Luol Deng, Joakim Noah) than the Jazz, but Noah will steal more rebounds away from Boozer in Chicago than Memo Okur and Paul Millsap did in Utah. The effects should be slight (think 18/10 instead of 19/11) but I don't see Boozer's value increasing with his move to the Bulls.

Taj Gibson, PF, Bulls -- I was fairly high on Gibson before the Boozer signing, but as my colleague Seth Landman notes, Gibson becomes an afterthought in Chicago now that they have a stacked frontcourt with Noah and Boozer in the paint.

Evan Turner, SG/SF, Sixers -- It's still early yet in the NBA Summer Leagues, but Turner hasn't exactly impressed thus far. I still think Turner will have a solid rookie season, but I was probably a little too optimistic on draft night.

Derrick Favors, PF, Nets -- Ditto for Derrick Favors. He hasn't impressed in his initial Summer League games, and Travis Outlaw's arrival in New Jersey will hurt his playing time prospects.

Wilson Chandler, SF, Knicks -- Chandler might be the odd man out in the wake of the Lee sign-and-trade. I still like Chandler's long-term prospects, but the addition of Azubuike could sap some of his playing time and production in 2010-11.

The Top 150

Note: Brian McKitish's Top 150 players are ranked for their expected fantasy value in the 2010-11 NBA season. Previous rank (compiled after the NBA draft) is indicated in parentheses.

1. Kevin Durant, SG/SF, OKC (2)
2. Chris Paul, PG, NO (3)
3. LeBron James, SF, MIA (1)
4. Danny Granger, SF, IND (5)
5. Dirk Nowitzki, PF, DAL (6)
6. Kobe Bryant, SG, LAL (7)
7. Dwight Howard, C, ORL (8)
8. Pau Gasol, PF/C, LAL (9)
9. Deron Williams, PG, UTA (10)
10. Carmelo Anthony, SF, DEN (11)
11. Steve Nash, PG, PHO (13)
12. Dwyane Wade, SG, MIA (4)
13. Stephen Curry, PG/SG, GS (14)
14. Gerald Wallace, SF/PF, CHA (15)
15. Tyreke Evans, PG/SG, SAC (16)
16. Jason Kidd, PG, DAL (17)
17. Brook Lopez, C, NJ (18)
18. Josh Smith, PF/SF, ATL (20)
19. Brandon Roy, SG/SF, POR (21)
20. Amare Stoudemire, C/PF, NY (19)
21. David Lee, C/PF, GS (22)
22. Chris Bosh, PF/C, MIA (12)
23. Rajon Rondo, PG, BOS (23)
24. Russell Westbrook, PG, OKC (24)
25. Joe Johnson, SG/SF, ATL (25)
26. Monta Ellis, PG/SG, GS (26)
27. Andre Iguodala, SG/SF, PHI (27)
28. Chauncey Billups, PG, DEN (28)
29. Andrew Bogut, C, MIL (30)
30. Stephen Jackson, SG/SF, CHA (31)
31. Tim Duncan, C/PF, SA (32)
32. Carlos Boozer, PF, CHI (29)
33. Al Horford, C/PF, ATL (33)
34. Paul Pierce, SF/SG, BOS (34)
35. Rudy Gay, SF, MEM (35)
36. Zach Randolph, PF, MEM (36)
37. Antawn Jamison, PF, CLE (59)
38. Marc Gasol, C, MEM (37)
39. Al Jefferson, C, MIN (38)
40. Aaron Brooks, PG, HOU (39)
41. Jason Richardson, SG, PHO (54)
42. Andrea Bargnani, PF/C, TOR (47)
43. Joakim Noah, C/PF, CHI (40)
44. Troy Murphy, PF/C, IND (41)
45. Baron Davis, PG, LAC (42)
46. Paul Millsap, PF, UTA (74)
47. Devin Harris, PG, NJ (43)
48. John Wall, PG, WAS (44)
49. Luol Deng, SF, CHI (45)
50. Manu Ginobili, SG, SA (46)
51. Mo Williams, PG, CLE (55)
52. Marcus Camby, C/PF, POR (48)
53. Nene, C/PF, DEN (49)
54. Derrick Rose, PG, CHI (57)
55. David West, PF, NO (50)
56. O.J. Mayo, SG, MEM (51)
57. Jeff Green, SF/PF, OKC (52)
58. Andray Blatche, PF/C, WAS (53)
59. Chris Kaman, C, LAC (56)
60. Danilo Gallinari, SF/PF, NY (58)
61. Brandon Jennings, PG, MIL (60)
62. Anthony Randolph, PF/SF, NY (95)
63. Rodney Stuckey, PG, DET (61)
64. Andre Miller, PG, POR (62)
65. Kevin Martin, SG, HOU (63)
66. Marcus Thornton, SG, NO (64)
67. Jrue Holiday, PG, PHI (65)
68. Kevin Garnett, PF, BOS (66)
69. Luis Scola, PF/C, RFA (68)
70. Kevin Love, PF, MIN (69)
71. Carl Landry, PF, SAC (70)
72. Darren Collison, PG, NO (71)
73. Tony Parker, PG, SA (72)
74. Jamal Crawford, SG/PG, ATL (73)
75. Eric Gordon, SG, LAC (75)
76. Caron Butler, SF, DAL (76)
77. Jason Terry, SG, DAL (77)
78. LaMarcus Aldridge, PF, POR (78)
79. John Salmons, SG/SF, MIL (79)
80. Trevor Ariza, SF/SG, HOU (80)
81. Blake Griffin, PF, LAC (81)
82. Rashard Lewis, SF/PF, ORL (82)
83. Yao Ming, C, HOU (83)
84. Mehmet Okur, C, UTA (89)
85. Evan Turner, SG/SF, PHI (67)
86. Raymond Felton, PG, UFA (84)
87. Jameer Nelson, PG, ORL (85)
88. Gilbert Arenas, PG, WAS (86)
89. Wesley Johnson, SF, MIN (87)
90. J.R. Smith, SG, DEN (88)
91. Andrew Bynum, C, LAL (90)
92. Ray Allen, SG, BOS (91)
93. Boris Diaw, PF/SF, CHA (92)
94. Richard Hamilton, SG, DET (93)
95. Al Harrington, PF, UFA (94)
96. Hedo Turkoglu, SF, TOR (101)
97. Kelenna Azubuike, SF/SG, NY (126)
98. Vince Carter, SG/SF, ORL (96)
99. Josh Howard, SG/SF, RFA (97)
100. Mike Conley, PG, MEM (98)
101. Emeka Okafor, C, NO (99)
102. Lamar Odom, PF/SF, LAL (100)
103. Terrence Williams, SF/SG, NJ (102)
104. Corey Maggette, SF, MIL (104)
105. Jonny Flynn, PG, MIN (105)
106. Michael Beasley, PF/SF, MIN (107)
107. George Hill, PG/SG, SA (108)
108. Roy Hibbert, C, IND (109)
109. Carlos Delfino, SF/SG, MIL (110)
110. Wilson Chandler, SF/SG, NY (103)
111. Lou Williams, PG/SG, PHI (111)
112. Channing Frye, PF/C, PHO (123)
113. Elton Brand, PF, PHI (112)
114. Anthony Morrow, SG/SF, RFA (113)
115. Samuel Dalembert, C, SAC (114)
116. Tayshaun Prince, SF, DET (115)
117. Courtney Lee, SG, NJ (118)
118. Jose Calderon, PG, TOR (119)
119. Kenyon Martin, PF, UFA (120)
120. Andrei Kirilenko, SF/PF, UTA (121)
121. Thaddeus Young, SF, PHI (122)
122. Kirk Hinrich, SG/PG, WAS (124)
123. Serge Ibaka, C, OKC (125)
124. Ron Artest, SF, LAL (127)
125. Ersan Ilyasova, PF/SF, MIL (128)
126. Anthony Tolliver, C/PF, RFA (116)
127. Andris Biedrins, C, GS (117)
128. Derrick Favors, PF, NJ (106)
129. Ben Gordon, SG, DET (129)
130. Brendan Haywood, C, DAL (131)
131. Beno Udrih, PG/SG, SAC (132)
132. Drew Gooden, PF/C, MIL (133)
133. Robin Lopez, C, PHO (NR)
134. Mike Miller, SG/SF, UFA (134)
135. Spencer Hawes, C, PHI (135)
136. Wesley Matthews, SG, RFA (143)
137. Greg Monroe, PF, DET (138)
138. Jamario Moon, SF, CLE (NR)
139. Anderson Varejao, PF/C, CLE (139)
140. Jarrett Jack, PG/SG, TOR (140)
141. Marvin Williams, SF, ATL (141)
142. JaVale McGee, PF/C, WAS (142)
143. DeMarcus Cousins, C, SAC (144)
144. Marreese Speights, PF/C, PHI (145)
145. Jason Thompson, PF, SAC (146)
146. Chris Andersen, C/PF, DEN (147)
147. Corey Brewer, SF/SG, MIN (148)
148. Goran Dragic, PG, PHO (149)
149. Travis Outlaw, SF/PF, NJ (NR)
150. Tyrus Thomas, PF, RFA (150)

Brian McKitish is a fantasy basketball analyst for ESPN.com. He can be reached at bmckitish@yahoo.com.