If You're Hardcore: How fouls play a part in fantasy hoops
The great thing about the All-Star break is that it marks the point in the season when fantasy basketball gets much more intense, and roster shuffling is inevitable. We've already seen a glimpse of that the past couple weeks as teams have been bombarded with injuries. This is when the grind of the season starts to have an impact. Injuries become more commonplace; trades change the fantasy landscape; and teams in the midst of a lost season blatantly begin planning for their future.
One of my favorite stats to help make sense of the turmoil is personal fouls. You can't produce if you can't stay on the court, and when a player emerges from the free-agent scrap heap, you can usually take a quick look at his fouls per game and answer one of the most important questions: Is he a short-term or long-term proposition?
To answer that, I decided to compile the month-by-month foul rates of a number of intriguing players. For the most part, these are middle-of-the-road players or worse -- players who are mostly in control of their destiny. If they play better, they'll see more playing time, and the first step to playing better is to stop fouling. I love looking at fouls because it gives you a snapshot of a player's potential. If they're playing well recently, but their foul rate is sky-high, it's probably a fluke; on the other hand, if their foul rate has been declining, and their production has simultaneously increased, they have a much better chance to keep it up.
The players I looked at also skew young, for a very good reason: Rookies and sophomores tend to foul the most before they truly learn the game. Marvin Williams is a great example of this. He averaged 2.9 fouls in 24 minutes his rookie season but has since lowered his fouls dramatically, to a paltry 2.0 in 35 minutes this season. Also, some guys are just foul-crazy. For instance, Anderson Varejao and Nick Collison have already proved they're not going to suddenly stop fouling, so there's no point in examining them. Anyway, on to the stats:
Improvement
It's no surprise that Brook Lopez, Andrea Bargnani, Tyrus Thomas and Charlie Villanueva have all improved their foul rates in-season. Bargnani's precipitous drop in the month of January coincided with his best month as a professional, and he has kept it up in February. The Bucks have let Villanueva play, and his production speaks for itself; his foul rate is on pace to lower again this month. As for Thomas, it looks like he's finally catching on after a foul-prone November. All four appear likely to continue their production for the rest of the season.
As for the up-and-comers, Andray Blatche, Michael Beasley, Hakim Warrick, Travis Outlaw and Marreese Speights have all seen improvements. Blatche looks like he could do some damage down the stretch; he just needs to work on getting back to full health. Beasley should be in for a much bigger second half since the Heat will assuredly expedite his development, while Warrick and Outlaw have both done a phenomenal job maintaining low foul rates after struggling with that part of their game in their first couple seasons. That makes their recent increase in minutes a bit more sustainable.
Speights and Brandon Bass are the two sleepers on the list, as both produce like starters yet are trapped in bench roles. Unfortunately for Speights, Samuel Dalembert has made a few gains in fouling less in recent months, and Dalembert's play has increased as a result; it looks like a time-share is the best either can hope for. In Bass' case, Dirk Nowitzki stifles any potential value he would have, but if Bass ever does get an opportunity, you'll know he's legit.
Stagnant
For young players such as Greg Oden, JaVale McGee, Joakim Noah, Spencer Hawes, Darrell Arthur and Ryan Anderson, they aren't likely to solve their foul woes anytime this year, so they will remain woefully inconsistent. They have to hope their coaches let them play through it, and if so, they should improve slightly over the course of the season, but don't expect any miracles. … Paul Millsap's foul rate has increased recently as he has battled a knee injury, and unless a trade occurs, it's hard to see how he'd be worth starting once Carlos Boozer returns, which could be right after the All-Star break. It looks like it's time to cut bait. … Marc Gasol has proven he was NBA-ready, as his maturity has helped him avoid the foul issues most young bigs experience. … Al Horford has quietly had an impressive sophomore season, and you can write off his foul rate in January, as it was affected by injury and a small sample size. He's back to 4.1 fouls per 48 minutes in five February games.
Decline
Jose Juan Barea has 15 assists in his past three games, and in case you forgot, he averaged 14.5 points and 5.3 assists in six starts earlier in the season. He might have trouble averaging close to those 32 minutes per game, but keep in mind that now-injured Jason Terry was averaging 16 field goal attempts per game. Even if Barea isn't on the court as much as you hope, he'll have more of an opportunity to produce when he is. And if you're in a turnover league, he averaged only 1.3 turnovers in those six starts, so he's also quite efficient. … Although Rodney Stuckey averaged more than 17 points in January, he has reached that total just three times in 11 opportunities since Richard Hamilton moved to the bench. Overall, he's averaging just 12.7 points since the adjustment. That's worrisome because Stuckey doesn't garner a lot of steals or hit many 3-pointers, so if his scoring is also weak, he becomes one-dimensional. Hamilton and Allen Iverson are going to be difficult to take shots from, especially when Stuckey isn't playing well, so don't be afraid to explore other options. … Ryan Gomes is doing a great job of proving you don't necessarily need to be good at basketball to have substantial fantasy value: Even though he's shooting 40.7 percent from the field and 32.3 percent from beyond the arc this month, he's still averaging 1.7 3-pointers thanks to 5.2 attempts per game. The loss of Al Jefferson frees up close to 20 shots per game, not to mention the 5.0 free throw attempts that don't count as field-goal attempts. Gomes should be free to chuck all he wants, and indeed, he scored 17 points, attempting 17 field goals and six 3-pointers (converting one), in the Timberwolves' first game without their star.
Hakim Warrick, PF, Grizzlies (8.6 percent owned): Well, that didn't take long. From Dec. 30 to Jan. 21, Warrick averaged 31.9 minutes per game, but from Jan. 23 to Feb. 2, his minutes dipped below 20 per game. It is the story of Warrick's life: short-term performance, long-term inconsistency. But in his past five games, he has responded, averaging 17.4 points and 8.0 rebounds in a healthy 35.6 minutes per game. Just as important, it seems Warrick has finally cut back on his fouls, as he has picked up more than one foul just once this month, and his foul rate has steadily decreased throughout the season. Sure, the return of Darrell Arthur after the All-Star break might lower his minutes some, but Warrick is the most talented of the bunch and is currently producing, so there should be no reason his minutes can't stay over the 30-minute mark.
Charlie Bell, SG, Bucks (0.8 percent owned): With Luke Ridnour's broken finger and Michael Redd already out for the season, the Bucks just need warm bodies at this point. Bell is averaging 13.4 points and 1.8 3-pointers over his past five games, and his numbers in 2006-07 -- 13.5 points, 1.6 3-pointers, and 1.2 steals -- look repeatable over the next three weeks. There's not much upside beyond this, but at least he's serviceable.
Adam Madison is a fantasy basketball analyst for ESPN.com.
