30 Questions: Yi Jianlian or Charlie Villanueva?
Thirty teams, 30 burning fantasy questions. Throughout the preseason, we put one of these questions to an ESPN.com analyst for an in-depth look at the most interesting, perplexing or dumbfounding fantasy facet of each NBA team. Be sure to check out the 30 Questions Index to see them all.
Of all the talents taken in the top 10 of this year's NBA draft, there isn't a tougher player to peg than Yi. ESPN's pre-draft coverage had him all over the lottery map, going anywhere from No. 3 to No. 12. Despite the threat of the situation's going all Steve Francis-y, perhaps escalating eventually into an international incident, Larry Harris went all in and took Yi at No. 6. We all know the rest of the story, but after the posturing, the dust has settled, Yi's a Buck and it's time to start divining his fantasy value.
As I always say, minutes per game is the most important statistic in fantasy basketball. In Yi's case, there have been all kinds of kooky rumors flying around: He has been promised 25 minutes per game; he'll be starting by Hanukkah; he can co-pilot the team jet, etc. These reports have (naturally) been denied within (and without) the Bucks organization. But it's clear that some dusky, back-room, smoke-filled, mustard-stained deal has been made.
I sincerely doubt it was a sacrosanct promise for 25 minutes per game, but I think it's reasonable to state that Yi's going to start the season a notch or three higher in the rotation than he probably should. Whether that's good for his long-term development remains to be seen, but in the short term, it could create a real problem. And when I say that, I don't mean for Larry Krystkowiak. I mean for me.
Why? Because I have Villanueva in two keeper leagues at bargain-basement prices.
Villanueva was, in my opinion, if not stolen, then at least mildly purloined from the Toronto Raptors last season in the T.J. Ford deal. He's one of those players I've always followed closely -- loads of athleticism, loads of baggage (kind of like the current Mrs. Cregan). In Villanueva's case, questions about his desire and work ethic caused him to drop in the draft, and he has been hard-pressed to shake off that label. But he's been a good citizen at the NBA level, showing all the signs of becoming a fantasy late bloomer.
Last season was a lost, injury-derailed season for Villanueva. Now healthy, he comes into the 2007-08 season as the presumptive starter. In normal situations, he'd be the entrenched starter, with a promising rookie behind him who would be eased into the rotation as the season progressed. Villanueva would be a safe later-round draft choice, a good upside pick who could pay off in a high-limit manner after the All-Star break. Then, ESPN's projections would be about right (13 ppg, 6.5 rpg), with added potential for 1.5 3-pointers, a steal and a block per game.
However, the Yi situation might end up creating a logjam that ends up canceling out both players' fantasy value. Yes, Villanueva played some minutes at the 3 in Toronto and could slide over in some situations, which would, of course, spread the Yi effect into Bobby Simmons' world. Monitor his minutes very closely -- if Villanueva drops below 28-32 minutes per game, his fantasy value is going to be scrambling for the emergency exit.
I'm not saying by any means that Yi will be an NBA bust. He has had an inconsistent preseason, but in between the fouls and turnovers, you can see the talent that moved Harris to roll those dice. Given a few years, he could be an All-Star. Despite all the anti-Milwaukee posturing, it seems as if he's ready for the culture of the NBA, probably more than Yao was his rookie season. Like Andrea Bargnani, he has the tools to be a special, Dirk-esque fantasy player. But for now, those ESPN projections (8.2 ppg, 4.1 rpg) look right on to me.
So, if my draft were, say, this evening, I'd go into it like this:
1. Villanueva is the safe short-term bet. I'd take him with confidence in the eighth round or so. There's a pretty deep drop-off in power forwards after Villanueva, and he has some upside.
2. Yi is a relatively sane endgame gamble, especially in keeper leagues. I think he'll have trouble staying on the court - he picks up fouls at Darko speed. He's going to improve as the season unfolds. If the Bucks fade from playoff contention, he'll get ample opportunity to help fantasy teams. But if I'm counting on him right away … it's time to start thinking about fantasy hockey.
John Cregan is a fantasy basketball analyst for ESPN.com.
