Select players who play like point guards and power forwards
Matthew Berry will tell you that you can win your league with the help of four simple words: "point guards" and "power forwards." Of course, there are plenty of other successful draft strategies, but the "point guards/power forwards" philosophy is one that has worked for me for years, and I'm not about to abandon it now.
For the uninitiated, the point guards/power forwards strategy is fairly simple and straightforward, but to simplify the name of the strategy, it's all about what one of our editors calls "multicategoricalicity," defined as "a player's propensity to contribute in multiple unrelated fantasy categories."
Essentially, the strategy involves loading up on guards who can score, dish, steal and hit 3-pointers (typically point guards) and big men who can score, rebound and block shots (typically power forwards). Fill around them with a few quality swingmen who can score, drain the 3 and create steals and a few centers who can bolster your rebounding and shot-blocking numbers, and you'll have yourself a well-rounded squad that can compete in categories across the board.
It's far less about the actual positions and much more about the scarcity of certain categories such as assists, steals, blocks and 3-pointers, then building on your strengths. Rather than thinking of point guards and power forwards, think of players who act like point guards and power forwards. Joe Johnson isn't technically a point guard, but he acts like one on the court. And more importantly, he gets stats like a point guard.
When you're finished assembling your squad, you should have:
• Guards and small forwards who excel in the following categories: points, assists, steals, 3-pointers and free throw percentage.
• Forwards and centers who excel in the following categories: points, rebounds, blocks and field goal percentage.
The biggest reason for me seeking a change in the name of the strategy was because some readers who would employ it took those four words too literally. Don't ignore swing players like the aforementioned Johnson, Paul Pierce, Brandon Roy and Stephen Jackson just because they aren't point guards or power forwards. In fact, as you'll see a little later, multitalented swingmen are the key to making this work.
Now that you have the basic feel for the strategy, let's dig a little deeper into the reasoning behind it and specifically what types of players you should be looking for.
Targeting multicategory producers and rare categories
In order for the strategy to work, it is imperative to place a premium on players who can contribute in the rare categories in fantasy hoops. For the most part, points and rebounds are the most readily available categories. Lots of players score and plenty grab rebounds. But how many guys get assists? What about steals, blocks and 3-pointers? Not too many. That's why we target these categories, just like we target saves and stolen bases in baseball.
Steve Nash, Chris Paul, Deron Williams, Rajon Rondo, Jason Kidd, LeBron James, Baron Davis, Russell Westbrook, Devin Harris, Dwyane Wade, Derrick Rose, Jose Calderon, Stephen Curry, Andre Iguodala, Tyreke Evans, Brandon Jennings, Darren Collison, Chauncey Billups, Raymond Felton, Andre Miller, Mike Conley, Aaron Brooks, Earl Watson, Jarrett Jack and Kobe Bryant.
Obviously, it won't be the same list in 2009-10, but chances are we'll see around 25-30 players average five or more assists this season. Let's say that you get four of those players. You'll be dominant in assists for sure. At least a top-three finish in roto leagues. But what about everything else that we're looking for from our guard categories? Well, that's why we can't just draft any old guard who gets assists. Preferably, we want to get guards who contribute in more than just one of the rare categories (assists, steals and 3-pointers).
Let's, for argument sake, drop all the players from the above list who failed to average at least a 3-pointer and a steal per game last season. That leaves us with:
Chris Paul, Deron Williams, Jason Kidd, LeBron James, Baron Davis, Dwyane Wade, Stephen Curry, Andre Iguodala, Brandon Jennings, Chauncey Billups, Mike Conley, Jarrett Jack and Kobe Bryant.
Just 13 players, folks. Again, that list will likely be different this season (so don't blindly follow the list above), but at least it gives you an idea of the type of players we are trying to target with this strategy: those who contribute across the board. Get two or three of these "across the board" type of guards and you're already looking pretty solid on draft day.
Just to be clear, we're not avoiding all guards who don't contribute across the board. There are some very good guards who don't contribute everywhere. Take Russell Westbrook, for instance. Last season, he averaged a brilliant 16.1 points, 8.0 assists and 1.3 steals. Unfortunately, he doesn't hit too many 3-pointers (just 0.3 per game last season). That being the case, if you draft Westbrook or players like him, you better be sure that you make up the difference in 3-pointers by grabbing a shooting guard or swingman like Jamal Crawford, Eric Gordon or Marcus Thornton at some point in the draft. I mention this because the success of this strategy really depends on how well you cover yourself in each category when you select a player who doesn't fit exactly what we're looking for (and this is sure to happen, as there are only so many players who contribute everywhere).
A similar discussion can take place for your big-man categories. Remember, most guys rebound, but blocks are the rarest category in the game. Only 35 players averaged at least one block per game last season. With that said, we're not all that interested in big guys who don't block shots (apologies to Zach Randolph and Carlos Boozer). We're also not that interested in big men who aren't efficient from the floor. Since we're already loading up on guards who can hit the 3 (and usually have lower field goal percentages), we have to ensure that our field goal percentage stays somewhat stable by surrounding them with big men who shoot at least 48 percent from the floor.
If you are going to draft someone such as Boozer, Randolph or David Lee, who are tremendous in points, boards and field goal percentage, it is imperative that you fill out your roster with some shot-blocking specialists such as JaVale McGee, Roy Hibbert or Serge Ibaka later in the draft. Boozer and the like can be great fantasy players if used properly, but most folks find themselves in a big hole in blocks if they don't round out their roster with specialists later in the draft.
Going into the draft, it might help to set up some minimum category thresholds. Personally, I like my point guards to get me at least 12 points, five assists, a 3-pointer and a steal per game, while keeping their free throw percentage at more than 80 percent. For swingmen, I'm looking for someone who's going to get at least 15 points, 4-5 rebounds, 3-4 assists and has the ability to provide either 1.2 steals or 1.2 3-pointers per game (both would be preferable, but there aren't too many players out there like that). For big men, I'm looking for a minimum of 12 points, seven rebounds, a block and 48 percent from the floor.
Of course, these are rough guidelines we're talking about here, and I'm not a stickler if a player falls slightly below these marks, particularly if he far exceeds the minimum in a few of the categories that I'm looking to acquire. For example, we're not going to pass on Rajon Rondo just because he doesn't technically fit into those rough guidelines. That would be silly. Rondo is so dominant in assists and steals that I'll gladly overlook his small deficiency in 3-point shooting and free throw percentage.
The same can be said for guards who keep a respectable field goal percentage. Deron Williams is a perfect building block for this type of strategy. Not only does he contribute in all of the traditional guard categories (points, assists, steals, 3-pointers and free throw percentage), but he also connects on 46.9 percent of his shots from the floor. That's pure fantasy gold, particularly for this strategy.
Building on strength
All too often, fantasy owners assemble a team that looks great on paper yet lacks the statistical dominance and diversity to take home a championship. That's what happens when folks simply follow the cheat sheets, drafting the best player available without any real purpose in mind. The most common mistake is when an owner fails to build properly on his or her team's strengths.
Let's say, for example, that you draft Dwight Howard in the first round. Think you have rebounds, blocks and field goal percentage locked up? Not so fast. Sure, Howard gives you a great foundation for those categories (plus points and steals), but it's useful only if you build properly on top of that. You're going to want to surround Howard, therefore, with at least four other players who share his talents. Remember, if you end up having too many rebounds or blocks, or too big of a lead in field goal percentage, you can always trade those away for categories that you are lacking. Many times, owners who draft a player like Howard will forget about boards and blocks for a while and won't establish the statistical dominance needed to take the category.
Sticking with Howard for a second, here's a sample of players you might want to select to complement his talents:
Rounds 2-3: Brook Lopez, Amare Stoudemire, Chris Bosh, Al Jefferson, Tim Duncan
Rounds 4-5: Al Horford, Marc Gasol, Joakim Noah, Andrew Bogut, Nene
Rounds 6-7: Marcus Camby, Chris Kaman, Kevin Love, Kevin Garnett
There's a list of 14 players right there. If you can get at least two of them to put alongside Howard, you are setting yourself up quite well in the big-man categories. Later in the draft, you'll want to fill in with some shot-blocking or rebounding specialists with upside and you'll be all set. By the way, the strategy works the same if you pass on Howard and instead select any of the players listed in the "Rounds 2-3" above as your main big man. You'll build on their strengths -- which are similar to Howard's -- and repeat the process.
Now, while you're building your strength in the big-man categories, you can't forget about the guard categories. We have to build on two fronts here. Standard leagues have eight categories: points, rebounds, assists, steals, 3-pointers, blocks, field goal percentage and free throw percentage. Through the first eight or nine rounds of any draft, we want to load up on players who contribute in at least four of those eight categories. That's how we ensure statistical diversity and build a solid foundation. Ideally, we'd like to have four players who help in points, assists, steals, 3-pointers and free throw percentage (guards and swingmen), and four big men who help in points, rebounds, blocks and field goal percentage after the first eight rounds. It doesn't always work out that way, and it doesn't have to, but that's what I look for during the first part of the draft.
After the first eight or nine rounds, you'll want to take a quick moment to review your team's strengths and weaknesses. By that time, you should have a great foundation across the board if you're following the strategy. Of course, it gets harder from here, as you'll be hard-pressed to find many players who will contribute in multiple categories. But you should be looking to load up on specialists and high-upside players who complement your statistical base.
Preparing for a fantasy hoops draft is not all that different from preparing for any other fantasy draft. You're still going to make sure that you have as much knowledge as possible by keeping on top of all the latest news and depth charts. You're still going to have our sleeper and busts lists ready. The only significant difference is that, rather than simply looking at depth charts, you are going to pay particular attention to minutes. Minutes make the fantasy basketball world go 'round, folks. It's simple, really: The more a player is on the court, the more chances he has to earn fantasy stats for you. It's not a coincidence that almost every breakout season corresponds with a career high in minutes played.
Here are a couple of tips that are not fantasy hoops specific but will help you along the way:
Make your own rankings list
If you don't have enough time to do your own homework, you can simply print out one of our cheat sheets and go at it. But why leave your fate in the hands of someone else? Look, most fantasy writers or self-proclaimed "experts" are not perfect, and after everything is said and done, they're just giving their educated opinions. Go ahead and look at my individual rankings list. As with any expert, odds are my personal rankings will differ plenty from yours. So go ahead and take a look at the rankings, but at the end of the day you should make your own list and put your fate in your own hands.
We'll use point guards as a quick example of how it works:
Tier 1: Chris Paul, Deron Williams
Tier 2: Steve Nash, Stephen Curry, Jason Kidd, Tyreke Evans, Rajon Rondo
Let's say you want to get a least one of the point guards listed above, but you really have your eye on Rondo. It would be nice to be able to get him, but if he goes a few spots ahead of you, you'll still have four other players from Tier 2 to select from, and trust me, you'll do just fine with Evans if you don't land Rondo. Not too big of a deal then, right?
Ranking your players in tiers also gives you a better idea of which positions are getting scarce during the draft. Let's say you already have a great base in the guard categories but you are fairly light in big-man stats. Then you glance at your tiered rankings and notice that there are only a few Tier 2 and 3 big men left on the board. Your next pick better be one of the big men you have ranked in Tier 2.
A few final thoughts before you head into draft day:
Limit risk early: You can't prevent injuries, but you can at least hedge your bets. Perennial injury risks such as Kevin Martin and Gilbert Arenas can be a huge boon to your fantasy roster, but they can also ruin a fantasy season quite quickly. If you can, try to hold off on taking risks like that until after the third round. But if the temptation is too great and you wind up with an injury-prone star early, make sure you surround him with some safer options. Hedge your bets by avoiding any other injury risks at least until Round 8 or 9.
Take upside late: I am a firm believer that there is little to no risk at the end of fantasy hoops drafts. Most of the players who are drafted in the final two rounds end up on the waiver wire at some point anyway, so where is the risk? It's also important to note that the waiver wire in fantasy hoops is always filled with talent early in the season, so if your upside pick doesn't pan out, you'll have plenty of options to choose from once the season starts.
Beware of the hype machine: Don't fall into the trap of hyping sleepers so much that they cease to be sleepers. A friend recently told me that there's no such thing as a sleeper anymore with all of the information available on the Internet. I tend to agree.
Brian McKitish is a fantasy basketball analyst for ESPN.com. He can be reached at firstname.lastname@example.org.
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