Pre-draft strategy: Think about it
Editor's Note: This article was originally published in September 2010. We are bringing it back in archive form -- with only a few changes with regard to individual players mentioned to discuss the 2011-12 season -- for your convenience.
Think about it. When you're rapping about fantasy sports with a stranger at a bar or chattering away on instant messenger with your friends, what are you talking about 99.9 percent of the time? Player rankings, right? This guy is better than that guy. I hate Player X and will never own him. I love Player Y and want to bear his children.
Whether you're new to the fantasy game, a grizzled veteran or a so-called expert, we all do the same thing. It's not without merit, of course. If you don't have a sound opinion on which player is better than another, you have no hope of winning your league.
But ranking your players is just the beginning of the process. What we should be talking about 99.9 percent of the time is pre-draft strategy, because knowing how to construct the best team possible is how you win championships. That's why we draft our teams live rather than go straight down a cheat sheet, taking the top player available each turn.
Let's take a look at some tried and true methods to help you construct the best team possible during your fantasy hoops drafts.
Know your league rules
This seems about as basic as it gets, but we've all made mistakes, like thinking a league started two centers instead of one. One simple mistake like that could wreck your whole roster. Think of the potential ramifications. You could end up reaching for that second center in the middle rounds instead of a real breakout power forward, or you could take a decent center with your third pick instead of a surefire stud shooting guard.
In fact, you need to think through each rule and the potential ramifications of both good and bad draft-day decisions.
What's your scoring system?
If it's a nine-category rotisserie league, the 3.9 turnovers per game Russell Westbrook averaged last season might make you think twice about taking him among the top point guards. Whether eight- or nine-category roto, a guy like Dwight Howard will sink your free throw category. In a category-based, head-to-head (H2H) system in which you get the weekly win if you outperform your opponent in more categories, you could draft Howard, toss out the free throw category and focus the rest of your draft on winning the other categories, knowing you have a great start in rebounds, blocks and field goal percentage. If it's a points-based, H2H system in which you earn a certain amount of points for each rebound, block, etc., you'll want to determine what that scoring system stresses and how it affects the stat production of your players. Are shot-blockers rewarded more than 3-point shooters? Are turnovers really costly?
What are your roster size and limits?
If you have eight people in a league and use only 10 roster spots, everyone's roster will be full of quality players. Because every player on every roster is sure to produce, you'll want to focus on having balanced production in all categories in roto leagues. Odds are, in a small league like that, you'll have to be near the top of every category by season's end to win (i.e., you can't "punt" a category). On the other hand, if you have 14 teams and 13 roster spots, you had better make sure you have a good handle on the values of the top 180-plus players. That's because not every player on every roster will produce, so the more low-end players you have giving you quality stats, the bigger advantage you'll have overall.
This is especially true in leagues in which players' position eligibility is defined loosely. You'll have a lot more centers available if guys like Tim Duncan and Amare Stoudemire are granted both PF and C eligibility (as they are in ESPN leagues). And there will be a lot more SGs and SFs if all swingmen are granted eligibility at both positions in your league.
On the other hand, if your league has strict roster requirements and position eligibility, you'll have to pay close attention while filling out your roster during your draft. Say your league requires two each at PG, SG, SF, PF and C, and has no flex spots. You'll be in a tight bind if you wait until the middle rounds to address your PG and C positions, especially if few players are granted eligibility at two positions.
Think about your draft position
Ideally, your commissioner will let you know the draft order well in advance. But even if you let ESPN's system randomize your draft order, you'll find out your draft spot an hour before the draft begins, and that's enough time to at give it some serious thought.
I believe this is the most important part of your pre-draft strategy. Think through your first pick and then beyond it. Consider what your team should look like after the first four or five rounds -- map it out.
If you're deciding whether you want LeBron James or Chris Paul early in the first round, you aren't just choosing between those two studs. You are deciding what the next few players you draft should look like, too. The beauty of taking LeBron is that he'll give you stats in every category, with free throws being his only risk. That means you have a lot of versatility with your second and third picks, although you'll want to make sure they can shoot free throws. With your second pick, you might consider Carmelo Anthony, who drains a ton of FTs at a great clip to cover LeBron's risk at the stripe. For your third pick, you could just take the best player available, since you have a good backbone with your first two picks.
If you take CP3, you won't have to worry about dimes or steals for a while, but you'll want to add some scoring, treys and blocks. Maybe take a swing at a big man like Josh Smith and a shooter like Rudy Gay with your third pick.
If you're drafting last in the first round of a snake draft, you'll get two picks in a row. This gives you a nice advantage, because you can pair up two players to make the foundation of your team. If you can get Howard and Stephen Curry, you'll have a good base of stats for your team in every category except free throw percentage. But maybe Howard and Kevin Love are clearly the two best players remaining, in your opinion. Nothing wrong with taking them, but it will affect your next few rounds, as you'll have little need for big men after that.
You should map it out. Get your cheat sheet set, and mark off where your first-, second-, third- and fourth-round picks will fall. Then you'll see which players you can get with each pick (e.g., if you draft first out of 12 teams, you know you will get three of your top 25 players). Examine the players ranked just ahead of your draft spots carefully, so that when it's your turn to draft, you're deciding between two or three players whom you've already studied. Then it's just a matter of determining whether you want to take the best player of that group or set your roster up in a certain way.
Know your fellow owners
If you're in a number of leagues, you know that some owners trade and some don't. In the fantasy sports industry, most of us have a slew of leagues. With limited time to spend on each of them, many industry leagues have few, if any, trades. So when you draft your team, you know that aside from waiver-wire work, that's probably going to be your team for the season.
In leagues in which you know you have little chance of trading, you need to construct your team well during the draft. In most scoring systems, you can't have a big hole in rebounds and blocks, or you probably can't win. You also can't have a complete dud starting at point guard and no depth at that position, or you'll have a brutal time making any headway in assists.
On the other hand, if everyone in your league loves to trade, you can lean more toward drafting the best player available each round, because you know you can tweak your roster by selling from your strong categories or positions to fill out your weak ones.
If you know your owners personally, you can take advantage of that, too. Suppose a guy in your league is known for overpaying in trades, and you know his favorite player in the world is Rajon Rondo. You might need a power forward, but you could draft the guard Rondo, because you can be reasonably sure you can flip him in a trade for a better player than the power forwards left in the draft.
Also consider drafting extra players at one position to trade them, especially in leagues with tight roster settings, like two-center leagues.
Filling out your roster
I pay far less attention to rankings in the latter rounds of drafts and far more attention to players I am targeting, regardless of which round it is. I recommend going through the bottom third of your cheat sheet and highlighting players you would like to have on your team. While there are reasons you might rank Andre Miller above Brandon Knight in a vacuum, I will be targeting the younger Knight. He has a ton of upside and could well exceed his draft spot, unlike the aging Miller, who isn't likely to exceed last season's production.
In the latter rounds, I'm focused primarily on upside -- players who have a shot at exploding, whether through natural development of their talent or because the only thing stopping their explosion is a brittle or overrated guy ahead on the depth chart.
Don't get cute, though. If every player you take in the bottom third of your draft is just as likely to do nothing as to explode, you're probably going to be in trouble. Make sure you have at least two or three guys like Miller, whom you can bank on to give you some production every week, and surround them with skilled guys who can outperform their draft spots.
I'm certain that if you heed my advice on pre-draft strategy, you'll have your best drafts to date. The more prepared you are before a draft, the fewer mistakes and more correct decisions you'll make during the draft. Think about it.
Tom Carpenter is a fantasy basketball analyst for ESPN.com.
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