Fantasy Forecaster: A light week
Most NBA teams are getting a bit of a breather this week; 20 of the 30 clubs play three games or fewer. This means you fantasy owners must work that much harder on your lineups, particularly if you are dealing with injuries (as you likely are). Some quick thoughts: Look to Jason Maxiell, Nate Robinson, Raja Bell, Willie Green or Earl Watson if you need a fill-in. And don't look for Jason Richardson to keep carrying your team. The Fantasy Forecaster calls for persistence.
Teams with four games
Charlotte Bobcats (NJ, @ BOS, @ CLE, DET)
Lineup locks: Gerald Wallace, Raymond Felton, Emeka Okafor, Jason Richardson
Outlook: Richardson might have reached his maximum trade value. At the least, a cooldown seems in order with this schedule. The Pistons allow the fewest 3-pointers in the league, while the Celtics and Cavs are eighth and seventh, respectively. And the resurgent Nets yielded just 15 treys in their past four games. On the subject of cooldowns, Felton has regressed lately; he shot just 32.4 percent from the field in his past six games. Little help for him, too, as the C's and Pistons are ranked first and second, respectively, in lowest opponents' field goal percentage. Boston, in fact, leads this category by a wide margin, holding teams to just 41.4 percent shooting, compared to Detroit's 43.2 percent.
Detroit Pistons (@ DAL, @ SA, @ CHA, @ NY)
Lineup locks: Chauncey Billups, Richard Hamilton, Rasheed Wallace
Outlook: With four road games in five days, Flip Saunders might stretch his bench a bit. With that in mind, and with Bobcats and Knicks opponents rejecting more than 5.5 shots a night, Maxiell (1.3 blocks in just 23 minutes per game) looks like a good play.
Golden State Warriors (SA, @ POR, MEM, IND)
Lineup locks: Baron Davis, Stephen Jackson, Andris Biedrins, Al Harrington
Outlook: The Warriors play nine times in the next 15 days, so I'm going with the center-eligible Biedrins and Harrington for the time being.
Houston Rockets (@ WAS, @ NY, MIN, NO)
Lineup locks: Yao Ming, Tracy McGrady
Outlook: According to the Houston Chronicle, McGrady is targeting the Jan. 11 game versus Minnesota for his return. In theory, Luther Head is a good play; the Wizards are dead last in 3s allowed (a stunning eight per game), while the Knicks and Timberwolves are plain dreadful. However, in three starts in T-Mac's absence, Head averaged just 10.7 points and 1.0 3s. It's Rafer Alston who has thrived without McGrady. Alston averaged 17.0 points, 5.0 assists and 2.5 3s over his past six games.
Indiana Pacers (@ Utah, @ PHO, @ SAC, @ GS)
Lineup locks: Jermaine O'Neal, Jamaal Tinsley, Danny Granger, Mike Dunleavy
Outlook: The Pacers kick off a five-game, eight-day West Coast swing Sunday at the Lakers. Even if Tinsley doesn't play Sunday, I'd be very tempted to activate him this week because he did travel with the team and should return to action during the trip, and because all the opponents ahead for Indiana -- the Jazz, Suns, Kings and Warriors -- allow opponents to shoot at least 45 percent.
Los Angeles Lakers (@ MEM, @ NO, MIL, MEM)
Lineup locks: Kobe Bryant, Andrew Bynum
Outlook: Lamar Odom was suspended for the Jan. 4 game versus Philadelphia because of a flagrant foul he committed the previous game versus Boston. He returns Sunday against Indiana, and he should do well this week against the struggling Grizzlies and Bucks.
Milwaukee Bucks (@ PHI, MIA, @ LAL, @ PHO)
Lineup locks: Michael Redd, Mo Williams, Andrew Bogut
Outlook: The schedule always evens out, but it will be a while before that happens for the Bucks, who are in the midst of a stretch of 21 games in 36 days. Redd isn't expected to play Sunday at Charlotte, but he did make the trip, so it's possible he will be ready Tuesday at Philadelphia.
New York Knicks (@ CHI, HOU, TOR, DET)
Lineup locks: None
Outlook: In his past seven games, Nate Robinson averaged 18.4 points and 2.7 3s. The fact that he shot 48.7 percent from distance during this span suggests the hot streak won't last, but you could take a shot on Robinson this week. While the Rockets and Pistons are two of the league's five stingiest teams in terms of 3-point defense, the Bulls and Raptors allow more than seven 3s per night.
Orlando Magic (@ SAC, @ LAC, @ DEN, @ Utah)
Lineup locks: Dwight Howard, Rashard Lewis, Hedo Turkoglu
Phoenix Suns (DEN, IND, @ Utah, MIL)
Lineup locks: Steve Nash, Amare Stoudemire, Shawn Marion, Grant Hill, Leandro Barbosa
Outlook: Bell has been hurting this season, a reality reflected in his 39.2 percent shooting. Then, the stomach flu forced him out of the Jan. 4 game versus New Orleans in the opening minutes. This week would be a good one to get well. Not only are the Nuggets, Pacers, Jazz and Bucks four of the 13 worst teams in terms of allowing 3-point baskets, they all are allowing opponents to shoot 36.5 percent or better from downtown.
Teams with three games
Unless otherwise noted, stick to your locks from here.
Atlanta Hawks (CLE, WAS, CHI)
Lineup locks: Joe Johnson, Josh Smith, Marvin Williams, Al Horford
Outlook: Anthony Johnson attempted a season-high six 3-pointers (made two) Jan. 5 versus New Jersey. That might bode well for him this week, given that the Wizards and Bulls allow more than seven 3s per night. But I'm still waiting for Acie Law to emerge as the Hawks' point guard.
Boston Celtics (CHA, @ NJ, @ WAS)
Lineup locks: Kevin Garnett, Paul Pierce, Ray Allen
Outlook: I'll take partial credit for telling you to sit Rajon Rondo last week. Not that I saw that horrid outing against Memphis (four points, one assist, six turnovers) coming, but I was right when I said Rondo would struggle for steals -- he finished with just one steal in three games.
Chicago Bulls (NY, @ PHI, @ ATL)
Lineup locks: Luol Deng, Kirk Hinrich, Ben Gordon
Outlook: The Bulls play just once before Friday, so don't be surprised if Deng -- who missed the Jan. 5 game versus Sacramento because of left Achilles' tendinitis -- sits out Tuesday against New York as well. Since Jim Boylan took over for Scott Skiles, Gordon has gone from starter to sub -- but he's averaging 20.5 shots a night coming off the bench, as opposed to 16.3 attempts per game under Skiles. No reason to think he won't have another good week, as the Knicks, Sixers and Hawks allow opponents to shoot 45.5 percent or better.
Cleveland Cavaliers (SEA, @ ATL, CHA)
Lineup locks: LeBron James, Zydrunas Ilgauskas
Dallas Mavericks (DET, @ SEA, @ LAC)
Lineup locks: Dirk Nowitzki, Josh Howard, Devin Harris
Memphis Grizzlies (LAL, @ SAC, @ GS, @ LAL)
Lineup locks: Pau Gasol, Mike Miller, Rudy Gay
Miami Heat (@ MIN, @ MIL, @ NO)
Lineup lock: Dwyane Wade
Outlook: Wade, Shaquille O'Neal and Jason Williams all practiced Saturday, so see what happens Sunday at Memphis. Ricky Davis has thrived in the absence of, well, everybody. He averaged 20.0 points, 4.6 assists, 4.6 rebounds, 1.8 3s, 1.8 steals and 48.7 percent shooting in his past five games.
Minnesota Timberwolves (MIA, @ HOU, @ SA)
Lineup lock: Al Jefferson
Outlook: A day after being called out by coach Randy Wittman, Rashad McCants scored a career-high 34 points on Jan. 4 versus Denver. But with the Rockets and Spurs two of the NBA's top five teams in limiting the 3-pointer, don't be swayed to acquire or activate McCants. Speaking of Timberwolves players who do little for fantasy owners other than knock down a few 3s, Randy Foye could return to action this week.
New Jersey Nets (@ CHA, SEA, BOS)
Lineup locks: Jason Kidd, Vince Carter, Richard Jefferson
New Orleans Hornets (LAL, MIA, @ HOU)
Lineup locks: Chris Paul, David West, Tyson Chandler
Outlook: The Hornets are off until Wednesday, which should give West time to recuperate. He missed the Jan. 4 game at Phoenix because of a bruised left hip.
Philadelphia 76ers (MIL, @ TOR, CHI)
Lineup locks: Andre Iguodala, Andre Miller, Samuel Dalembert
Outlook: Green, who missed six games because of a groin injury before returning Jan. 4 at the Lakers, got healthy at a good time. The Bucks, Raptors and Bulls are three of the league's worst seven teams at limiting 3s.
Sacramento Kings (ORL, MEM, IND)
Lineup locks: Brad Miller, John Salmons
Outlook: Ron Artest will be out awhile after having surgery on his right elbow, but Mike Bibby and Kevin Martin are thought to be close to returning. In the meantime, Francisco Garcia should have at least one more week of fantasy value; he averaged 16.6 points and 1.6 3s while starting the past five games.
San Antonio Spurs (@ GS, DET, MIN)
Lineup locks: Tim Duncan, Tony Parker, Manu Ginobili
Outlook: Ginobili, who missed the past five games because of a sprained left index finger, could play Sunday at the Clippers. Michael Finley has thrived in Ginobili's absence, averaging 17.8 points and 6.0 rebounds. But for those in large leagues, keep in mind that Finley has been hot from downtown since well before Ginobli's injury, with 35 3s over his past 13 games.
Seattle SuperSonics (@ CLE, @ NJ, DAL)
Lineup lock: Kevin Durant
Outlook: The young Sonics -- and fantasy owners of all ages -- have been helped by Earl Watson and Kurt Thomas. Since the start of December, Watson has averaged 10.5 points and 6.6 assists, while Thomas averaged 12.0 rebounds and 1.8 blocks in his past six games (although he scored just 37 points during that span).
Toronto Raptors (PHI, @ NY, POR)
Lineup locks: Chris Bosh, Jose Calderon
Outlook: With 42 points and 59.3 percent shooting over his past two games, Andrea Bargnani is starting to rediscover his offense. It also was encouraging to see him get eight blocks in his past eight outings. But if Bargnani isn't scoring, he's not helping your team. In his past five starts, he averaged just 3.2 boards.
Utah Jazz (IND, PHO, ORL)
Lineup locks: Deron Williams, Carlos Boozer, Andrei Kirilenko
Outlook: Kirilenko, who missed the Jan. 5 game at Portland because of back problems, is a very iffy play this week. According to the Deseret Morning News, he will be re-evaluated Monday. With the Pacers, Suns and Magic all allowing at least 100 points per game, newcomer Kyle Korver might be a decent play.
Washington Wizards (HOU, @ ATL, BOS)
Lineup locks: Antawn Jamison, Caron Butler
Teams with two games
Denver Nuggets (@ PHO, ORL)
Lineup locks: Carmelo Anthony, Allen Iverson, Marcus Camby
Los Angeles Clippers (ORL, DAL)
Lineup locks: Corey Maggette, Chris Kaman
Outlook: Kaman has slipped lately -- he averaged 14.0 points and 33.9 percent from the field over his past four games -- but his overall numbers are still pretty incredible. For instance, he averaged 3.2 blocks over his past 25 games, and he has had fewer than nine boards in just two of 30 games this season. It's even more stunning to compare his current numbers to his "career" season of 2005-06. Then, Kaman averaged 12.0 points, 9.6 rebounds and 1.4 blocks; now, those numbers are 18.0 points, 14.0 boards and 2.9 rejections.
Portland Trail Blazers (GS, @ TOR)
Lineup locks: Brandon Roy, LaMarcus Aldridge
Neil Tardy is a fantasy basketball writer for ESPN.com.
