February 10, 2008, 5:34 PM

Fantasy Forecaster: All-Star break changes strategy

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Tardy By Neil Tardy
Special to ESPN.com
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The NBA All-Stars are headed for the Big Easy this weekend, and although I wouldn't say fantasy owners are headed for an easy week, most of your lineup calls are self-evident.

That's because the break, which begins Friday, means that NBA teams have a short week; 26 of 30 teams have just two games this week, while three others play but once. That leaves Dallas, the only team with three games, as the squad to watch. So what to do with the Mavs? Nothing unusual, but if you need fill-ins, the Forecaster, as always, offers some ideas.

On Tap (schedules through Feb. 14)

Teams with three games

Dallas Mavericks (@ PHI, POR, @ PHO)
Lineup locks:
Dirk Nowitzki, Josh Howard
Outlook: You'll keep Jason Terry active, but the Sixers, Blazers and Suns are all fairly stingy against the 3-pointer. Along those lines, pass on Jerry Stackhouse. Besides, he tweaked his right hamstring Friday. Another injured Mav, Erick Dampier, sat out Friday with a right ankle sprain, but the Dallas Morning News says he's due back soon. If you have roster room, consider adding Brandon Bass to your lineup. In his past four games, he's averaging 12.5 points, 5.5 rebounds and 63 percent shooting (albeit on only 6.8 attempts per night). Nothing spectacular, but with the LSU product playing 50 percent more games than most everyone else in the league this week, he could accumulate some respectable numbers. Owners who are desperate for blocks (as I seem to be) could also temporarily turn to DeSagana Diop, who might get more playing time given Dampier's status and because Dallas is in the midst of playing four games in five days in three different time zones. Diop had eight points, 12 rebounds and two rejections in 26 minutes against the Grizzlies on Friday.

Teams with two games

Atlanta Hawks (DET, @ CHA)
Lineup locks:
Josh Smith, Joe Johnson, Al Horford, Marvin Williams
Outlook: Is Horford hitting the rookie wall? He has just three blocks in his past eight games. Then again, he did have that 20-rebound game against the Lakers last week. The Bobcats, along with the Timberwolves and Jazz, are among the teams in the league that get their shots blocked most frequently. However, no team gets fewer shots blocked than the Pistons.

[+] Enlargeleon Powe
Elsa/Getty ImagesLeon Powe has been playing well in place of K.G. and is owned in a miniscule percentage of leagues.
Boston Celtics (@ IND, NY)
Lineup locks:
Paul Pierce, Ray Allen, Rajon Rondo
Outlook: Kevin Garnett is expected to miss his seventh straight game today as the Celtics host San Antonio. At this point, you'd think the Celtics would just keep him sidelined through the break, but I'm sure KG's status will come up on the ABC broadcast. Leon Powe is rostered in only 1.5 percent of ESPN leagues. Powe-lease, people: Take advantage of the numbers -- 12.5 points and 7.3 rebounds since Garnett went down -- while you can.

Charlotte Bobcats (LAL, ATL)
Lineup locks:
Gerald Wallace, Jason Richardson, Emeka Okafor, Raymond Felton

Chicago Bulls (NO, MIA)
Lineup locks:
Kirk Hinrich, Andres Nocioni, Joe Smith
Outlook: Sit Ben Gordon, who's set to have an MRI on his injured right wrist Monday. However, Hinrich is expected to play Tuesday against the Hornets after missing the past three games with bruised ribs. Hinrich's return should mean the end of Chris Duhon's run. Duhon totaled 26 assists and eight steals starting in place of Hinrich, highlighted by that shocking 34-point performance at Golden State. However, he hasn't scored more than 13 points in any other game this season.

Cleveland Cavaliers (@ ORL, SA)
Lineup locks:
LeBron James, Zydrunas Ilgauskas
Outlook: Here's a name I never thought I'd drop in this space: Ira Newble. Talk about being pressed into service. In Cleveland's backcourt, Larry Hughes (toe), Daniel Gibson (hamstring) and Sasha Pavlovic (foot) are all hurting. (That's to say nothing of the front line, which is missing Anderson Varejao and Drew Gooden.) So the journeyman Newble has stepped in and scored in double figures in two of his past three games. In this bizarro week, he actually could help some deep-league owners. Fantasy owners at least have the benefit of seeing what happens with Sunday's Cleveland-Denver game, but don't count on any of those other banged-up Cavs this week.

Denver Nuggets (@ MIA, @ ORL)
Lineup locks:
Marcus Camby, Allen Iverson, Carmelo Anthony, Kenyon Martin
Outlook: Since missing three mid-January games with a staph infection, Martin is averaging 14.5 points, 7.7 rebounds, 1.5 blocks and shooting 51.2 percent from the field.

Detroit Pistons (@ ATL, IND)
Lineup locks:
Chauncey Billups, Rasheed Wallace, Richard Hamilton

Golden State Warriors (WAS, PHO)
Lineup locks:
Baron Davis, Stephen Jackson, Monta Ellis, Al Harrington
Outlook: It isn't often a player shoots better from the field than from the free-throw line  especially when said player makes 80 percent of his free throws. But that's the story with Ellis of late. In his past three games, he's shooting an astonishing 81.1 percent (30-of-37) from the floor, averaging 26.7 points in that span. Ellis is used to making shots, though; he's up to 52.8 percent for the season. The law of averages probably will catch up to him before the Wizards and Suns do. That said, opponents of Washington and Phoenix are shooting in the 45 percent range, which is actually middle-of-the-pack in the league.

Houston Rockets (POR, SAC)
Lineup locks:
Yao Ming, Tracy McGrady

Indiana Pacers (BOS, @ DET)
Lineup lock:
Danny Granger
Outlook: Mike Dunleavy sat out the second half against the Blazers on Saturday after bruising his right knee in the early going. Take it as a sign. With the Celtics and Pistons being the league's only teams that allow fewer than 90 points a night, Granger is the only Pacer you really want active this week.

Los Angeles Clippers (@ MIL, WAS)
Lineup locks:
Chris Kaman, Corey Maggette
Outlook: Cuttino Mobley has reached double figures in 10 straight games and is averaging 17.2 points and 1.7 3s in February. Of course you'd leave him active against two of the NBA's seven worst teams in 3-point defense.

Los Angeles Lakers (@ CHA, @ MIN)
Lineup locks:
Kobe Bryant, Pau Gasol
Outlook: The Lakers complete their nine-game, 14-day road trip Wednesday in Minneapolis. The Gasol trade was a big surprise; the play of Vladimir Radmanovic is a small one. Radman has started the past six games, and in his past four he's averaging 13.5 points, 2.5 3s and 1.5 steals.

Memphis Grizzlies (SAC, @ PHI)
Lineup locks:
Mike Miller, Rudy Gay, Darko Milicic
Outlook: Mike Conley returned to the Grizzlies lineup Saturday against the Hornets and finished with a respectable 16 points and four assists (and four turnovers) in 33 minutes.

Miami Heat (DEN, @ CHI)
Lineup locks:
Dwyane Wade, Shawn Marion

Milwaukee Bucks (LAC, NO)
Lineup locks:
Michael Redd, Mo Williams, Andrew Bogut
Outlook: On Saturday, Redd played his first game since Jan. 25, getting 21 points, three 3s and three steals against the Knicks. In starting the past three games, Charlie Villanueva has averaged 17.7 points and 12.0 rebounds. He might want to stick to the paint, though; he's 0-for-14 from 3-point range since Jan. 22.

Minnesota Timberwolves (@ NJ, LAL)
Lineup locks:
Al Jefferson, Ryan Gomes

New Jersey Nets (MIN, @ TOR)
Lineup locks:
Jason Kidd, Vince Carter, Richard Jefferson
Outlook: Josh Boone is actually 13-of-19 from the line (68.4 percent) over his past five games. He's still only a 39.7 percent free-throw shooter for the season, though.

[+] EnlargePeja Stojakovic
Barry Gossage/NBAE via Getty ImagesPeja Stojakovic has been lighting it up from downtown for the Hornets.
New Orleans Hornets (@ CHI, @ MIL)
Lineup locks:
Chris Paul, David West, Tyson Chandler, Peja Stojakovic
Outlook: I'll never be a Stojakovic fan, but clearly that's my problem; he's averaging 22.0 points and 4.3 3s over his past eight games. No reason to think the Bulls and Bucks, who each allow around seven treys per game, will slow him down much.

Orlando Magic (CLE, DEN)
Lineup locks:
Dwight Howard, Rashard Lewis, Hedo Turkoglu
Outlook: Jameer Nelson, who turned 26 yesterday, has already had more career comebacks than Evander Holyfield. After coach Stan Van Gundy benched him for two games, Nelson returned to the lineup on Friday against the Lakers. In his first start since Jan. 16, he put up 17 points and nine assists. So I guess he's motivated again. Games against the depleted Cavs and defensively indifferent Nuggets are all the motivation Nelson owners need to get him active.

Philadelphia 76ers (DAL, MEM)
Lineup locks:
Andre Iguodala, Andre Miller, Samuel Dalembert

Phoenix Suns (@ GS, DAL)
Lineup locks:
Steve Nash, Amare Stoudemire, Leandro Barbosa

Portland Trail Blazers (@ HOU, @ DAL)
Lineup locks:
Brandon Roy, LaMarcus Aldridge, Travis Outlaw
Outlook: Roy, who has missed the past two games because of a death in the family, should rejoin the Blazers on Monday in Houston.

Sacramento Kings (@ MEM, @ HOU)
Lineup locks:
Kevin Martin, Brad Miller, Mike Bibby, Ron Artest
Outlook: Monitoring the schedule can help you succeed in fantasy hoops, but it won't keep guys from tanking on you. Such is the case with Martin, who just turned in clinkers against two of the league's worst defensive teams. On Wednesday he was just 1-of-10 against the Sonics, and then, after a nice 27-point effort Friday against the Jazz, he brick-layed his way to a 3-for-16, nine-point showing Saturday at Golden State. But if any opponent can set Martin right, it's the Grizzlies, who are 29th in scoring defense and 30th in opponents' shooting percentage (47.4 percent).

San Antonio Spurs (@ TOR, @ CLE)
Lineup locks:
Tim Duncan, Manu Ginobili
Outlook: Michael Finley drained five 3s Friday at New York, and he could come through north of the border this week; the Raptors have been at the bottom of the league in 3-point defense all season. And the banged-up Cavs might not be a bad matchup for him either.

Toronto Raptors (SA, NJ)
Lineup locks:
Chris Bosh, Jose Calderon

Washington Wizards (@ GS, @ LAC)
Lineup lock:
Antawn Jamison
Outlook: It doesn't sound like Caron Butler will play tonight in Phoenix, but Wizards coach Eddie Jordan told The Washington Post that he hopes to have Butler back before Washington finishes its current western swing. Lot of ifs there, but as long as Butler's out, Andray Blatche should be in your lineup.

Teams with one game

New York Knicks (@ BOS)
Lineup locks:
Jamal Crawford, Zach Randolph
Outlook: Yes, the Knicks have only a single game against the NBA's single-best defensive team. But this is a good example of why you stick with your best. When New York previously met Boston on Jan. 21, Crawford was solid (22 points on 8-of-17 shooting) and Z-Bo was huge (24 points, 15 boards). David Lee seems to have solidified his minutes, so don't discount the eight or nine rebounds he'll probably get you either.

Seattle SuperSonics (Utah)
Lineup lock:
Kevin Durant

Utah Jazz (@ SEA)
Lineup locks:
Deron Williams, Carlos Boozer, Andrei Kirilenko, Mehmet Okur

Neil Tardy is a fantasy basketball writer for ESPN.com.