Fantasy Forecaster: Jazz are 'Four-Most'
Welcome to the NBA Fantasy Forecaster! Turn here each Sunday this season for your weekly fantasy outlook for each NBA team.
In a typically light opening-week schedule, Utah is the only team in the league with four games. That means you'll want Jerry Sloan's newest starter, Ronnie Brewer, in your lineup. Brewer earned the job at shooting guard with a strong preseason. Who else is a good play? Read on.
Teams with 4 games
Utah Jazz (@ GS, HOU, GS, @ LAL).
Lineup locks: Carlos Boozer, Deron Williams, Mehmet Okur
Outlook: It isn't just quantity that makes this the tastiest schedule of the first week. The Warriors allowed the most points in the league in 2006-07, which you probably know. What you might not know is that Golden State had the worst rebounding differential in the league last season, while Utah had the best. So in larger leagues, play Paul Millsap. And yes, play Andrei Kirilenko, too.
Teams with 3 games
Chicago Bulls (@ NJ, PHI, @ MIL)
Lineup locks: Luol Deng, Kirk Hinrich
Outlook: The Bulls will either start the season shorthanded, or very shorthanded. Ben Wallace and Joakim Noah both have left ankle injuries. Noah is expected to miss Wednesday's opener at New Jersey, while Wallace's availability is in question. And don't count on Tyrus Thomas picking up the slack for those two because he hurt his right foot in Chicago's preseason finale and could sit for awhile, too. So maybe Joe Smith is an option then? Naw. In addition to Deng and Hinrich, Ben Gordon and Andres Nocioni should be good plays this week. Milwaukee allowed 104.0 points and 6.9 3-pointers a game last season, while New Jersey and Philadelphia were not better than average in those categories.
Cleveland Cavaliers (DAL, NY, @ PHO)
Lineup locks: LeBron James, Zydrunas Ilgauskas
Outlook: A reasonably favorable schedule, even though Dallas is one of the league's top defensive teams. Still, it was an unsettling preseason for the Cavs; Sasha Pavlovic and Anderson Varejao continue to hold out. Plus, Daniel Gibson, who's being counted on to replace Pavlovic, has a hamstring problem. Play LeBron, Big Z and Larry Hughes. Otherwise, stay away from this team right now.
Dallas Mavericks (@ CLE, @ ATL, vs. SAC)
Lineup lock: Dirk Nowitzki
Outlook: Remember that Josh Howard is suspended for the first two games. His wrist sprain isn't serious, so he should be ready for the Kings on Nov. 3. With Howard out, the only certainty is Nowitzki. Devin Harris and Jerry Stackhouse are only decent plays. Same with Jason Terry, who's coming off the bench this year.
Denver Nuggets (vs. SEA, @ MIN, NO)
Lineup locks: Allen Iverson, Carmelo Anthony, Marcus Camby
Outlook: With Chucky Atkins out at least six weeks and J.R. Smith suspended and possibly on his way out of Denver, shooting guard is the position to watch. According to The Denver Post, either Yakhouba Diawara or Bobby Jones will start in the backcourt with Iverson. But Linas Kleiza, who scored 34 points in the Nuggets' preseason finale, is more interesting to fantasy owners. Apparently coach George Karl thinks Kleiza is best suited to coming off the bench, but watch him against Seattle and Minnesota, which should be awful defensively.
Detroit Pistons (@ MIA, @ ORL, ATL)
Lineup locks: Chauncey Billups, Richard Hamilton, Rasheed Wallace
Outlook: Hard to get a read on the quality of this schedule. Besides the big three, the other player probably worth starting immediately is Antonio McDyess. Keep in mind McDyess is the Pistons' starting center this year. If he doesn't have center eligibility in your league now, it will happen soon.
Golden State Warriors (Utah, @ LAC, @ Utah)
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Lineup locks: Baron Davis, Al Harrington
Outlook: The "Nellie Watch" begins. Who gets the most minutes alongside Davis? Monta Ellis, Marco Belinelli or Kelenna Azubuike? What role will Mickael Pietrus and Matt Barnes have? Based on this week's schedule, I'd wait it all out if you have better options. But yeah, play Andris Biedrins, but not Stephen Jackson, who is suspended to start the season.
Houston Rockets (@ LAL, @ Utah, POR)
Lineup locks: Yao Ming, Tracy McGrady
Outlook: Nothing about this schedule will move you. So see what Rick Adelman does with Rafer Alston and Mike James before playing either. On the other hand, Luis Scola looks good to go.
Indiana Pacers (WAS, MIA, @ MEM)
Lineup locks: Jermaine O'Neal, Danny Granger
Outlook: The Pacers shouldn't be expected to be among the league leaders in 3-pointers this season, but none of their first three opponents were very good guarding the perimeter in 2006-07. So Mike Dunleavy and Jamaal Tinsley are favorable plays this week.
Los Angeles Lakers (HOU, @ PHO, Utah)
Lineup locks: Kobe Bryant
Outlook: Neutral schedule fantasy-wise. Nothing here that should keep you from playing Andrew Bynum or Luke Walton. Lamar Odom, however, is hobbled and will miss at least two of those games, and possibly up to two weeks.
Miami Heat (DET, @ IND, vs. CHA)
Lineup lock: Ricky Davis
Outlook: The newly acquired Davis will be in the lineup immediately, and with Dwyane Wade out, he should be free to fire away. However, the schedule doesn't seem to do Davis or Jason Williams any favors. Each of the Heat's first three opponents defended the 3-pointer well last season.
Milwaukee Bucks (@ ORL, @ CHA, CHI)
Lineup locks: Michael Redd, Mo Williams
Outlook: The Bucks didn't look good in the preseason, so it's probably best not to dig too deeply into this team looking for fantasy help. However, the early schedule might favor Andrew Bogut, assuming he has recovered from his left wrist sprain. Charlotte and Orlando weren't great rebounding teams last season, and the Bulls could be without Ben Wallace.
New Jersey Nets (CHI, TOR, @ PHI)
Lineup locks: Jason Kidd, Vince Carter
Outlook: Another neutral schedule. Richard Jefferson and Bostjan Nachbar are probably worth starting in addition to the two studs.
New Orleans Hornets (SAC, POR, @ DEN)
Lineup locks: Chris Paul, David West, Tyson Chandler
Outlook: An inviting schedule because Sacramento and Denver each allowed nearly seven 3-pointers per game last season. Play Peja Stojakovic, definitely.
Orlando Magic (MIL, DET, @ WAS)
Lineup locks: Dwight Howard, Rashard Lewis
Outlook: Even with Detroit on the schedule, games against Milwaukee and Washington are reason enough to play Hedo Turkoglu this week. And if you're on the Jameer Nelson bandwagon (I am not), start him as well.
Philadelphia 76ers (@ TOR, @ CHI, NJ)
Lineup locks: Andre Iguodala, Andre Miller
Outlook: There will be better weeks to start Kyle Korver.
Phoenix Suns (@ SEA, vs. LAL, CLE)
Lineup locks: Steve Nash, Amare Stoudemire, Shawn Marion, Leandro Barbosa
Outlook: You don't need much incentive to play your Suns, but this week provides some. Start Boris Diaw, Raja Bell, and even Grant Hill.
Portland Trail Blazers (@ SA, @ NO, @ HOU)
Lineup locks: Brandon Roy, LaMarcus Aldridge
Outlook: These figure to be three pretty strong defensive teams, so you might want to hold out Channing Frye, Martell Webster and Travis Outlaw this week.
Sacramento Kings (@ NO, @ SA, @ DAL)
Lineup lock: Kevin Martin
Outlook: Brad Miller has trimmed down. Thought I'd get the good news out of the way. With no Mike Bibby and no Ron Artest, and this tough road trip, it could be an ugly start for the Kings. I am not even sure I like Martin right now, given the offensive burden he'll have to carry.
San Antonio Spurs (POR, @MEM, SAC)
Lineup locks: Tim Duncan, Tony Parker, Manu Ginobili
Outlook: Since I don't have to tell you to play Duncan, Parker or Ginobili, there's not a lot to say about the Spurs here. So expect to read a lot about Michael Finley in this space. I like Finley for you deep-leaguers this season. It took him some time to settle in with the Spurs, but he did average 1.8 3-pointer after the All-Star break. Because he really only helps you in 3-pointer, you can probably grab him off your waiver wire at opportune times. Consider this week one of those opportunities. Memphis and Sacramento were two of the six worst teams at defending the 3-pointer in 2006-07.
Seattle SuperSonics (@ DEN, PHO, @ LAC)br>
Lineup lock: Chris Wilcox
Outlook: Kevin Durant's left ankle sprain could keep him out of the opener. Too bad, with games against the wide-open Nuggets and Suns and Elton Brand-less Clippers. Despite the schedule, Wilcox is the only Seattle player I'd feel comfortable starting this week, though Nick Collison could get you some boards and Wally Szczerbiak some points off the bench. And if it were me, I might start Delonte West. Then again, West is on my short list of players for whom I have an unreasonable fondness.
Toronto Raptors (PHI, @ NJ, BOS)
Lineup locks: Chris Bosh, T.J. Ford, Andrea Bargnani
Outlook: New Jersey and Boston, at least, should be solid defensively. With questions about how Sam Mitchell will dole out playing time, stick with the name players for now.
Washington Wizards (@ IND, @ BOS, ORL)
Lineup locks: Gilbert Arenas, Antawn Jamison, Caron Butler
Outlook: For fantasy purposes, the Wizards are a three-man team. It will be somewhat interesting to see what Brendan Haywood does in Etan Thomas' absence, but wait to find out.
Teams with 2 games
With these teams, stick with your lineup locks for Week 1:
Atlanta Hawks (vs. DAL, @ DET)
Lineup locks: Joe Johnson, Josh Smith
Boston Celtics (WAS, @ TOR)
Lineup locks: Kevin Garnett, Paul Pierce, Ray Allen
Charlotte Bobcats (MIL, @ MIA)
Lineup locks: Gerald Wallace, Emeka Okafor, Raymond Felton
Los Angeles Clippers (vs. GS, SEA)
Lineup lock: Corey Maggette
Memphis Grizzlies (SA, IND)
Lineup locks: Pau Gasol, Mike Miller
Minnesota Timberwolves (DEN, @ NY)
Lineup lock: Al Jefferson
New York Knicks (@ CLE, MIN)
Lineup locks: Stephon Marbury, Zach Randolph
Neil Tardyis a fantasy basketball writer for ESPN.com.
