Fantasy Forecaster: Good plays from bad teams
I stand corrected about Kevin Durant. And I stand in awe of Andrei Kirilenko and Marko Jaric, but for different reasons. Mainly, though, I have your fantasy guide to this week's NBA schedules. Let's get to it.
Teams with four games
Atlanta Hawks (@ PHI, DET, MIN, MEM)
Lineup locks: Joe Johnson, Josh Smith, Marvin Williams, Al Horford
Outlook: I'm the guy who believes Shane Battier is the poor man's Josh Childress (not vice versa), so sure, I'll take my chances on Childress any week the Hawks play four games. However, Childress' fantasy contributions have been fairly meager -- only 10.3 points, 4.7 rebounds and virtually nothing in the hustle categories -- over the past seven games.
Charlotte Bobcats (@ TOR, CHI, CLE, @ DET)
Lineup locks: Raymond Felton, Emeka Okafor
Outlook: While the U.S. dollar sinks against its Canadian counterpart, U.S.-based NBA teams are sinking 3-pointers against Toronto at an ever-increasing rate. I know what you're thinking: This dude is so not an economics major. And I'm not. But I worked really hard on that line, and the Raptors do allow tons of 3-pointers, including a whopping 45 of them in their past five games. So Jason Richardson and Matt Carroll (who has had at least one 3-pointer in 11 straight games) are good spot plays for that game against Toronto and for the next one versus the Bulls. The Bobcats just played Saturday at Chicago, and Richardson and Carroll combined for seven buckets from downtown.
Chicago Bulls (DAL, @ CHA, @ DET, BOS)
Lineup lock: Luol Deng
Outlook: I've discussed how Daniel Gibson's big games generally have come against teams that don't defend the 3-pointer. Well, most players aren't so cooperative that way. Take Ben Gordon, for instance. It doesn't matter who's guarding him -- either he's on or he isn't. He definitely is on now, having hit eight 3s in his past two games, even though Chicago's past two opponents, Atlanta and Charlotte, are among the league's top five teams in 3-point defense. So, should you activate Gordon this week? The schedule says no, but check the twinkle in Ben's shooting eye.
Dallas Mavericks (@ CHI, @ SA, DEN, Utah)
Lineup locks: Dirk Nowitzki, Josh Howard, Jason Terry
Outlook: Devin Harris has shot better than 40 percent in only one of his past six games, and three of the teams on this week's schedule are average to very good in field goal defense. The one that isn't? Believe it or not, it's San Antonio, which is allowing opponents to shoot 46.5 percent. That's 26th in the league. (Last season, the Spurs were fourth-best in this category.) Even though Erick Dampier is back, I think DeSagana Diop still has some fantasy value, at least in larger leagues in which second centers and blocks can be hard to come by. Get him in there against the Bulls and Jazz, who get nearly six shots rejected per night.
Detroit Pistons (@ ATL, @ NO, CHI, CHA)
Lineup locks: Chauncey Billups, Richard Hamilton, Rasheed Wallace
Outlook: In two games since returning from knee problems, Wallace is shooting 36 percent (9-of-25). The Hawks and Bobcats might speed 'Sheed's bounce-back; these teams allow opponents to connect at a rate of nearly 46 percent from the floor.
Golden State Warriors (ORL, MIL, MIA, @ LAL)
Lineup locks: Baron Davis, Stephen Jackson, Al Harrington, Andris Biedrins
Outlook: Monta Ellis is back in the mix in a huge way, with averages of 25.5 points, 4.5 rebounds and 57.1 percent shooting over his past four games. He will inevitably slow down, though, and it could happen against this schedule. The Magic, Heat and Lakers all are limiting opponents to somewhere between 43 and 44 percent from the field.
Los Angeles Clippers (MIL, @ SEA, @ SAC, MIA)
Lineup locks: Corey Maggette, Chris Kaman
Outlook: This is a glorious schedule, but activating Cuttino Mobley, who continues to suffer from a groin strain and elbow inflammation, is risky. However, tolerate Tim Thomas' awful 39.7 percent shooting this week because these four opponents all are in the league's bottom third in 3-point defense, and Thomas has hit three or more treys in five of his past seven games.
Memphis Grizzlies (POR, @ HOU, @ NO, @ ATL)
Lineup locks: Pau Gasol, Mike Miller, Rudy Gay
Outlook: Darko Milicic's return bumps Juan Carlos Navarro from the starting lineup, but these aren't great matchups for JCN, anyway. All of these opponents reside in the top half of the NBA in 3-point defense.
Miami Heat (@ Utah, @ POR, @ GS, @ LAC)
Lineup locks: Dwyane Wade, Shaquille O'Neal
Outlook: A Miami player I never mention, but should, is Udonis Haslem. With all of these opponents being out-rebounded for the season, Haslem's 12.7-point and 8.9-board averages stand a good chance of improving over the next few days. If you're in a large league, Daequan Cook could see more minutes, should Pat Riley deem it necessary to stretch his rotation. This week's four games constitute the middle of the Heat's six-game, nine-day western road trip.
Milwaukee Bucks (@ LAC, @ GS, @ SEA, @ POR)
Lineup locks: Michael Redd, Mo Williams, Andrew Bogut
Outlook: The Bucks start their own tough swing west, with five games in seven days. Aside from Redd, Williams and Bogut, no one on this team is getting consistent minutes.
New Jersey Nets (@ CLE, NY, HOU, @ WAS)
Lineup locks: Jason Kidd, Vince Carter, Richard Jefferson
Outlook: Despite playing only 20 minutes a night, Sean Williams is averaging an incredible 2.3 blocks. While this week's schedule doesn't appear all that favorable, the Knicks do have more shots rejected than any team in the league.
Philadelphia 76ers (ATL, BOS, NY, @ NY)
Lineup locks: Andre Iguodala, Andre Miller, Samuel Dalembert
Outlook: As far as 3-point gunners go, Kyle Korver is much more like Ben Gordon (inconsistent, regardless of who's guarding him) than "Boobie" Gibson. For instance, Korver didn't make a single basket from beyond the arc against Washington on Nov. 30, even though the Wizards are the worst in the NBA in 3-point defense. Who knows what will happen this week, but those back-to-back games against the Knicks make Korver an awfully tempting play.
Phoenix Suns (@ IND, @ TOR, @ WAS, @ MIN)
Lineup locks: Steve Nash, Amare Stoudemire, Shawn Marion, Leandro Barbosa
Outlook: As tough as the Miami and Milwaukee schedules are, this is brutal. Phoenix plays four road games in five nights, capped by an overnight trip from D.C. to the Twin Cities. So your tired Suns studs could disappoint you against the woeful T-wolves. But play them all -- along with Grant Hill, Raja Bell and even Boris Diaw -- this week. The Pacers, Wizards and Timberwolves all allow more than 101 points per game, and you already know about Toronto's problems defending the 3-pointer.
Toronto Raptors (CHA, PHO, @ BOS, HOU)
Lineup locks: Chris Bosh, T.J. Ford
Outlook: People who play fantasy sports know the cruelest phrase is "day-to-day" (although "game-time decision" also ranks up there). But that continues to be the prevailing wisdom concerning Bosh and the groin problem that now has sidelined him for two games. He's still day-to-day. Assume he'll return sometime this week; go ahead and leave him active in weekly lineup leagues. It's risky, but think how you'll feel if he plays and you aren't getting his stats.
Utah Jazz (MIA, @ SAC, @ SA, @ DAL)
Lineup locks: Deron Williams, Carlos Boozer, Andrei Kirilenko
Outlook: Boozer owners are sweating it out this week. Boozer, who missed the Nov. 30 game against the Lakers with a sprained right ankle, told the Salt Lake Tribune he hoped to return Monday against Miami. Read: He's day-to-day. Hard to believe folks once were worried about Kirilenko. If you missed his line versus the Lakers, it was a fantasy masterpiece: 20 points, 11 rebounds, 11 assists, six steals and four blocks. With 5.8 assists per night, AK47 is "out-diming" such guys as Andre Iguodala, Tracy McGrady and about a dozen starting point guards.
Teams with three games
Unless otherwise noted, stick to your locks from here.
Boston Celtics (@ PHI, TOR, @ CHI)
Lineup locks: Kevin Garnett, Paul Pierce, Ray Allen
Outlook: These are dry days if you build your team around one or more of Boston's finest. The Celtics play only three times in the next 10 days and just nine times in the next 23 days. For this week, I'd lean toward activating Rajon Rondo and his 5.4 assists and 1.7 steals. The Sixers and Bulls average more than 15 turnovers per game.
Cleveland Cavaliers (NJ, @ WAS, @ CHA)
Lineup locks: LeBron James, Zydrunas Ilgauskas
Outlook: James (finger) wasn't able to play Sunday at Boston; he wasn't able to make it back. He'll return soon, though. With the Nets and Wizards on the schedule, you'll want Daniel Gibson in your lineup.
Denver Nuggets (LAL, @ DAL, SAC)
Lineup locks: Carmelo Anthony, Allen Iverson, Marcus Camby
Outlook: While J.R. Smith has had only two 20-point games this season, he has had two or more 3-pointers in nine of his 14 games. Use him this week, since the Lakers and Kings allow about seven 3-pointers a night.
Houston Rockets (MEM, @ NJ, @ TOR)
Lineup locks: Yao Ming, Tracy McGrady
Los Angeles Lakers (@ MIN, @ DEN, GS)
Lineup locks: Kobe Bryant, Andrew Bynum
Outlook: The overnighter from Minnesota to Denver could be a dicey -- even icy -- trip for the Lakers. Jordan Farmar seems to get big minutes in only one-sided contests, but in a large fantasy league, I'd be tempted to use him this week with the back-to-back games, followed by the inevitable track meet with Golden State.
Minnesota Timberwolves (LAL, @ ATL, PHO)
Lineup lock: Al Jefferson
Outlook: You knew it wouldn't last with Marko Jaric, right? And, of course, it's right after I refer to his run of good play and good health. Jaric sprained his right foot Friday against San Antonio and is, yes, day-to-day. But given his relationship with Victoria's Secret model Adriana Lima, Jaric is day-to-day in the best possible way.
New Orleans Hornets (DET, MEM, SEA)
Lineup locks: Chris Paul, David West, Tyson Chandler
New York Knicks (@ NJ, @ PHI, PHI)
Lineup locks: None
Portland Trail Blazers (@ MEM, MIA, MIL)
Lineup locks: Brandon Roy, LaMarcus Aldridge
Sacramento Kings (Utah, LAC, @ DEN)
Lineup locks: Kevin Martin, Ron Artest
Seattle SuperSonics (LAC, MIL, @ NO)
Lineup locks:Kevin Durant, Chris Wilcox
Outlook: Did someone actually suggest that Durant might not be the best rookie on his team? For shame. In four games since I typed those ridiculous words, Durant has averaged 26.8 points and has shot 50.6 percent from the field. If you haven't noticed, Kurt Thomas had a stupendous total of 45 rebounds in his past three games.
Washington Wizards (CLE, PHO, NJ)
Lineup locks: Antawn Jamison, Caron Butler
Teams with two games
Indiana Pacers (PHO, @ ORL)
Lineup locks: Jermaine O'Neal, Danny Granger, Mike Dunleavy
Outlook: Reserve your Pacers this week.
Orlando Magic (@ GS, IND)
Lineup locks: Dwight Howard, Rashard Lewis, Hedo Turkoglu, Jameer Nelson
Outlook: Play Howard, of course. Your call on Lewis and Turkoglu, who could get three or four games' worth of 3s against the Warriors and Pacers.
San Antonio Spurs (DAL, Utah)
Lineup locks: Tim Duncan, Tony Parker, Manu Ginobili
Outlook: If you have better options than Duncan, Parker and Ginobili, even this week, I suggest you get some friends. Because I assume you're playing in a league by yourself.
Neil Tardy is a fantasy basketball writer for ESPN.com.
