Fantasy Forecaster: Understanding the new Bobcats
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You know Larry Brown. He's been coaching since basketball shorts were short and 'fros were tall and glorious. You know his style, his success and his wanderlust. But have you, as a fantasy hoops owner, applied what you know about Brown to his current situation?
Here's what I mean: Brown's Charlotte Bobcats are becoming a tricky fantasy matchup. Charlotte is currently fourth in the NBA in scoring defense, a smidgen ahead of the San Antonio Spurs. Only the Celtics, Rockets and Cavaliers allow fewer than the Bobcats' 92.7 points against.
It's impressive, considering Charlotte surrendered 101.4 points per game in 2007-08, but it's not all that surprising. Larry Brown teams limit possessions. Charlotte opponents currently average 75.1 field goal attempts per game, down 6.4 from last season. That explains how the Bobcats give up so few points even as they allow opponents to shoot 45.3 percent from the floor. (Though that's still a solid improvement from 2007-08's 46.6 percent.)
Charlotte is also forcing more turnovers (15.4 per game, up from 13.8) and getting more rebounds (though the Bobcats remain a -1.4 in differential). On the other hand, Charlotte is surrendering a few more 3-pointers than last season (6.8 per night, compared with 6.3 in 2007-08).
Still, after a rough start, the Bobcats seem to be headed in a positive direction. They didn't beat the Celtics last week, but they outrebounded them. The ESPN Player Rater loves Emeka Okafor, Gerald Wallace and Raymond Felton lately. Take note. Remember what you know about Brown. Forget what you thought you knew about the Bobcats.
On tap:
Check the grid for Week 7 schedules of each NBA team. Teams with the most games in the upcoming week are listed first.
| Team | Mon. 12/8 | Tue. 12/9 | Wed. 12/10 | Thu. 12/11 | Fri. 12/12 | Sat. 12/13 | Sun. 12/14 | Total games | Next Week | |
 | Hawks | @HOU | @SA | @MIA | CLE | 4 | 4 | |||
 | Raptors | @CLE | IND | @NJ | NO | 4 | 4 | |||
 | Warriors | @OKC | MIL | HOU | @DEN | 4 | 4 | |||
 | Bobcats | @MIA | @NO | @DAL | DET | 4 | 4 | |||
 | Magic | @LAC | @POR | @PHO | @Utah | 4 | 3 | |||
 | Rockets | @MEM | ATL | @GS | @LAC | 4 | 3 | |||
 | Lakers | @SAC | PHO | SAC | MIN | 4 | 3 | |||
 | Thunder | GS | MEM | @DAL | @SA | 4 | 3 | |||
 | Cavaliers | TOR | @PHI | PHI | @ATL | 4 | 3 | |||
 | Spurs | @DAL | ATL | @MIN | OKC | 4 | 3 | |||
 | Timberwolves | Utah | @DEN | SA | @LAL | 4 | 3 | |||
 | Grizzlies | HOU | @OKC | CHI | MIA | 4 | 2 | |||
 | Pacers | @TOR | @DET | @MIL | 3 | 4 | ||||
 | Wizards | DET | BOS | @PHI | 3 | 4 | ||||
 | Nets | NY | TOR | @CHI | 3 | 4 | ||||
 | Mavericks | SA | CHA | OKC | 3 | 4 | ||||
 | Clippers | ORL | @POR | HOU | 3 | 4 | ||||
 | Bulls | NY | @MEM | NJ | 3 | 4 | ||||
 | Bucks | @PHO | @GS | IND | 3 | 4 | ||||
 | Jazz | @MIN | POR | ORL | 3 | 4 | ||||
 | Kings | LAL | @LAL | NY | 3 | 4 | ||||
 | Knicks | @CHI | @NJ | @SAC | 3 | 4 | ||||
 | Suns | MIL | @LAL | ORL | 3 | 3 | ||||
 | 76ers | CLE | @CLE | WAS | 3 | 3 | ||||
 | Pistons | @WAS | IND | @CHA | 3 | 3 | ||||
 | Hornets | CHA | @BOS | @TOR | 3 | 3 | ||||
 | Heat | CHA | ATL | @MEM | 3 | 3 | ||||
 | Trail Blazers | ORL | @Utah | LAC | 3 | 2 | ||||
 | Celtics | @WAS | NO | 2 | 4 | |||||
 | Nuggets | MIN | GS | 2 | 4 | |||||
Houston Rockets (@MEM, ATL, @GS, @LAC): Coming soon to a Ron Artest near you: Shooting guard eligibility. With Tracy McGrady making the transition from playing hurt to sitting out, Houston inserted Shane Battier into the starting lineup versus Memphis on Dec. 3, and shifted Artest to the backcourt with Rafer Alston. That's an interesting combination. So is this schedule. You may just think of the Warriors as a team that allows 110.3 points a night, but they're also getting crushed on the boards. In fact, the Warriors, Clippers and Grizzlies are three of the NBA's eight worst teams in rebound differential. So get Luis Scola (24 percent owned in ESPN leagues) on your team. And, with Warriors and Grizzlies opponents shooting better than 46 percent and averaging close to seven 3s, Alston (14.8 points, 6.0 assists and 2.5 3s) might raise that woeful 36.9 field goal percentage. For deep leagues, I also like Carl Landry (14.3 points, 5.6 boards in his past seven). Hold off, though, on activating Battier, who's still recovering from offseason ankle surgery.
Miami Heat (CHA, ATL, @MEM): Dwyane Wade may wish he had more help around him, but for fantasy owners, the Heat do offer other options. Mario Chalmers (22 percent owned) is averaging 2.8 3s and 2.5 steals (to go with 12.8 points and 4.5 assists) in his past six, while Udonis Haslem has double-doubles in three of his past four. This schedule is indifferent to these two, however. Bobcats, Hawks and Grizzlies opponents are all average to below average in steals, while the Bobcats and Hawks (now that they have Josh Smith back) are better on the boards than their so-so numbers suggest.
Milwaukee Bucks (@PHO, @GS, IND): Suns, Warriors and Pacers opponents all average at least eight steals per game, which bodes well for Ramon Sessions. For that matter, Luke Ridnour -- the guy who continues to start ahead of Sessions -- is a good add here. Just six percent owned, Ridnour is averaging 1.8 steals in his past four.
New York Knicks (@CHI, @NJ, @SAC): The Bulls allow the second-fewest 3-pointers in the Association. But you know what? The Nets and Kings easily make up for it. New Jersey surrenders a stunning 9.2 3s a night, easily the league worst, while Sacramento allows the third-most treys. Nate Robinson should be back in New York's lineup next week, so make sure he's back in yours. Now's also a good time to mention that Wilson Chandler is inexplicably unrostered in half of ESPN leagues. I'll make my case for Chandler using the Thorogood defense: You wanna get 'Wil so I'll make it real clear -- one trey, one block, one steal. (Those are his per game averages, give or take a couple swat-backs.) One trey. One block. One steal.
Some quick tips for owners in daily leagues. Recommendations -- start, sit or add -- are made for specific days of the coming week, based on the schedule.
Trevor Ariza, SF, Lakers (@SAC, PHO, SAC, MIN): Ariza is owned in seven percent of ESPN leagues. I'm guessing that in leagues in which at least two fantasy sportswriters participate, Ariza ownership hovers around 95 percent. We just love the lad. Something about hustle cat studliness makes us all gooey inside. Even on a loaded Lakers team, Ariza's getting enough minutes to average 12.5 points, 5.0 rebounds and 1.5 steals in his past four. And his takeaways should pick up this week, with Kings and Suns opponents first and fourth, respectively, in steals.
Jose Juan Barea, PG, Mavericks (SA, CHA, @OKC): Dallas has been mentioned as a refuge for Stephon Marbury, but then Rick Carlisle got the crazy idea to give minutes to Barea, a seldom-used guard in his two-plus seasons with the Mavs. On Thursday, in his first start of the season (and only the 10th of his career), Barea dropped 18 points on the Suns. The 24-year-old is now averaging 25 minutes, 12.0 points, 6.0 assists and 50.0 percent shooting over his past four games. If you're in, say, a league of 14 or more teams, Barea is worth a look. And in the near term, he should keep sinking shots. Thunder opponents sport the third-highest shooting percentage (47.7), while Spurs and Bobcats opponents both top 45 percent.
Steve Blake, PG, Trail Blazers (ORL, @Utah, LAC): Plenty of players are worth much more to their NBA teams than they are to any fantasy team, and Blake certainly qualifies as an example of this. Or does he? The 28-year-old is averaging 2.0 3s a night, which outpaces the likes of Ben Gordon, O.J. Mayo and Vince Carter. His Calderon-esque 1.3 turnovers a night makes him extra appealing for leagues that count TOs. This might not be the best week to claim Blake (eight percent owned), however. The Magic allow the fewest 3s, and the Jazz and Clippers are both above average in this regard.
Eddie House, SG, Celtics (@WAS, NO): As for a guy who drops them from downtown who's looking at a super-duper favorable schedule, that would be House. If you're in a daily lineup league with unlimited transactions, House is well worth inserting versus Washington on Dec. 11, a day with only three games. And you might want to keep him around another night for New Orleans. The Hornets and Wizards are two of the five worst teams in 3-point defense. I probably don't need to say this, but I will anyway: Even though Boston plays just twice in Week 7, don't even think about reserving any of your Celtic studs in a weekly league.
Brook Lopez, C, Nets (NY, TOR, @CHI): Though his numbers as a starter (13.4 points, 8.7 boards, 2.2 blocks) are rock-solid, Lopez is averaging just 8.0 points and 42.9 percent shooting his over his past three. But stick with the rookie (or pick him up -- Lopez is still only 20 percent owned). The Knicks are at the bottom in rebound differential, while the Raptors aren't much better. And pretty much everyone in possession of a pair of EEEEs whups up on the Bulls.
Kevin Love, PF/C, Timberwolves (Utah, @DEN, SA, @LAL): As a jaded T-Wolves fan, I have a nickname for Love: Not O.J. Mayo. (Of course you know Love's teammate, Not Brandon Roy.) But actually, Love is coming around. In his past three he's averaging 14.7 points and 10.7 boards. It won't be easy going against the likes of Tim Duncan -- or even Paul Millsap -- in Week 7, but Nuggets opponents are second in blocks. See if you can get Love cheap.
Paul Millsap, PF, Jazz (@MIN, POR, ORL): Ah yes, Millsap. Carlos Boozer and Andrei Kirilenko could both be back sometime next week, but don't let that, or this neutral schedule, bother you. Millsap's been that good (18.2 points, 11.8 boards and 1.5 steals in his past six). By the way I just noticed that the Magic are being slightly outrebounded this season. You know, that team with Dwight Howard. Interesting.
Al Thornton, SF, Clippers (ORL, @POR, HOU): Now 83 percent owned, Thorton has arrived and that bandwagon is rolling away. For me, it's not so much that he's topped 20 points in six of his past eight, or that he's barreling toward the 1.0 steal/1.0 block plateau, it's that Thorton's getting to the line. He's averaging 5.5 trips so far, which makes that 79.1 free throw percentage (and you can't do a lot better than that for a forward-eligible player) all the more valuable. Inconveniently for me though, Magic, Blazers and Rockets opponents take precious few foul shots.
Neil Tardy is a fantasy basketball analyst for ESPN.com.
