Grand Theft Roto: Recapping the trading season
Thursday night was a rather hazy affair. It went from coffee to Red Bull to other things mixed with Red Bull. There was a lot more "Decline Trade" button pushing than "Accept Trade."
It was the ESPN trade deadline, which also happened to be the trade deadline for another, non-ESPN league. It's a heady affair in the Cregan household, the culmination of months of postulating, posturing, and pandering.
I like the deadline action, because at this point in the season, the only owners wiling to talk deal tend to be gamblers. The meek and weak-willed wilt at the deadline, because they don't want to screw up their imaginary squads.
I also like it because the usual method of communication -- e-mail -- ends up being circumvented by instant messenger, the telephone, and in some special cases, meeting for a libation.
I prefer all of these methods to e-mail, because instantaneous communication is the surest and fastest way to make a trade (I'm going to spend the offseason trying to figure out how to incorporate Facebook into the equation.)
Now that the dust is beginning the settle, I'm pausing to take stock. A lot has transpired since last Halloween. For instance, the Current Mrs. Cregan is now five and a half months pregnant. (I was as shocked as anyone. Apparently, I am the Shawn Kemp of Highland Park.)
When you write about trade strategies, a recap column can have the feel of a late-night autopsy. For instance, trading for Dwyane Wade last Tuesday doesn't look that prescient in the light of this Tuesday. (I contend that for a middle of the pack team, it's better to have tried something extreme than to have done nothing in the slightest.)
It's kind of shocking to see what I was thinking last November. How high I was Andrea Bargnani. How low I was on Andrew Bynum.
It's been a long season of wheeling and dealing. When I ask myself about the best and worst deals I've made, certain players stand out.
Going into this season, I wrote that if Turkoglu received a steady diet of 30-32 minutes per game, that he'd develop into a solid fantasy starter. Well, apparently Turkoglu possessed an upside that escaped yours truly, Sacramento and San Antonio. It's difficult to fathom that there actually was a time (around last Halloween) where I worried about J.J. Redick eating into Turkoglu's playing time. As of this writing, not only is Turkoglu Orlando's best small forward, but he's easily their best point guard as well.
If you take into account where Turkoglu went in fantasy drafts (endgame pick to undrafted), he's had one of the great statistical seasons in recent memory: 19.6 points per game, 6.1 rebounds, 4.9 assists, 2.0 3-pointers, 45 percent from the field, 84 percent from the line.
I drafted Turkoglu on one team, traded for him on another, and (tragically), traded him from one. I made a lot of questionable deals this season, but the one that rankles me (in that Chris Wallace 3:30 a.m. night sweats kind of rankle)? Dealing Turkoglu and the next player on this list for Josh Smith.
I love Rudy Gay and Turkoglu because they specialize in out-of-position production (what I call "Funky Production.") When Pau Gasol was traded, Gay's immediate future became magnesium-at-a-science-fair-bright.
My only worry is that Gay might become affected with Iguodala-itis (a great second option who regresses slightly when placed in the go-to role).
The other long-term question for Gay is "what lottery pick will be arriving in Memphis in June?" I'm addicted to Chad Ford in various and sundry ways. At the top of the list is his Mock Draft-o-Meter. Most of the time, the Meter seems to think Eric Gordon's going to Memphis at No. 3. But if it's Michael Beasley at No. 1 (a real possibility), Gay's value goes even higher.
Kaman somehow went from too-frustrating-to-own to the West Coast Camby, a cornucopia of boards, blocks, and oddly entertaining quotes. Despite lucking into him in a couple of leagues, I still spent a lot of time this season trying to figure out when to sell high.
For me, it came in late January. Back then, I was worried about Elton Brand's much ballyhooed, all-but-certain return. Now, it looks smart because of Kaman's nagging back issues. What's going to be interesting is to see if and how Kaman and Brand co-exist next season. (Don't forget, Kaman started all of this in the first place when Brand was injured in a game of one-on-one last summer.)
I remember the game because it was the day after Christmas, and I was hiding from my family at a nearby Starbucks. Miller, one of my all-time favorite fantasy players, had been going through a brief renaissance, but had finally thrown up a clunker (seven points, 11 rebounds). When another team was looking for center help, I bit, dealing Miller for Antawn Jamison. I thought I was being cute; sure that Mike Bibby's return would somehow cut into Miller's numbers.
Jamison was nice, but when Miller resumed his tear (about three quarters later), I responded by committing an unpardonable fantasy sin. I became positively obsessed with getting him back. It bordered on cyberstalking. After months of pressure I got Miller back, dealing Camby for Miller and Rashard Lewis before the deadline. Then Miller celebrated our reunion by bruising his tailbone.
As badly as I screwed up with Miller on one team, I managed to secure Bogut's services for another squad. Right around the same time I dealt Miller, Bogut hit a rough patch. By the end of December, Bogut had seemingly regressed back into his old, relatively disappointing self. I took a big gamble and dealt Kevin Durant (and his way overly-hyped name value) for Bogut. Since then, Durant's hit a bit of a rookie wall, and Bogut has justified his No. 1 pick pedigree.
Bogut's leap in rebounds and points are easy to spot, but what's made him truly great have been the blocks, steals, and assists (4.6 per game in March). Any center that likes to share at a 4.6 assist-clip has the makings of a special fantasy player.
I realize that outside of Charlotte's city limits, it's kind hard to get excited about the Bobcats. But from a fantasy perspective, I've had a season-long yen for these plucky southerners. Okafor's in a contract year, Felton's got some upside, Gerald Wallace … well, he became a bit overrated, didn't he?
But I loved their dealing for Richardson on draft day. Richardson's an injury risk, but he seemed like a nice gamble for a team that didn't need another young player to develop. When Richardson struggled out of the gate, I followed my own advice and tried to deal for him in multiple leagues.
In the league I did snare him (for Rashard Lewis), I had to suffer through a rough November (41 percent shooting from the field). Eventually, Richardson heated up. My patience felt extra rewarded a few days ago when Richardson bagged Player of the Week.
One of the things I've always like about Richardson is his high-3-point-percentage-for-a-3-point-shooter (41 percent on the season). For a scorer, he's sneakily productive in other areas, averaging five rebounds, three assists and 1.2 steals per game. The key for Richardson has been simply staying healthy; after playing only 51 games in 2006-07, he's on track to crack 75 in 2007-08.
I was going to get into the most disastrous moves I made this season, but see I've hit my words-per-column allotment. Recapping that … going to take at least 1,200 to 1,500 words.
Overall, the great thing I've found about this season was that the real-life NBA trade shenanigans fueled interest in the fantasy trade market. It's been a great, active year, and I can only hope that it becomes a permanent trend.
Now if you'll excuse me, I'm off to hit the waiver wire.
John Cregan is a fantasy basketball analyst for ESPN.com.
