Player Rater: More late-season risers, fallers
Every preseason, statistics from the last stretch of the previous season are cited when predicting players' prospects for the upcoming year. How often do you hear "Player X went crazy in March and April, and proved down the stretch that he's ready for an increased role"? OK, so I've probably written that exact sentence with an actual player's name in it before, so you know what I mean. Late-season stats are among the most discussed, so it's key to analyze them while they happen. This week, I'm again looking at players who have moved up or down the Player Rater in the past 15 days, based upon averages, for two primary purposes. First, some of these players will be addable or droppable based upon their recent performances, depending on the depth of your league. Second, in certain cases, late-season performances provide an indication about next season, especially on teams out of the playoff chase that are using these waning days as a means to evaluate their future plans. The player's ranking based upon the past 15 days (avg) is in parentheses.
Andrew Bogut, C, Bucks (18th): The big Aussie is doing his best to justify being drafted No.1 overall by having a dominant March in which he's averaging 14.4 points, 11.7 rebounds, 2.0 blocks and 1.1 steals per game. One of his most underrated attributes is the high amount of steals he nets from the center position, as only a handful of actual centers average more steals per game than he does. His improvement in the league has been steady, and this coupled with his late-season surge provides promising indications that Bogut will continue to improve into next season and beyond, eventually establishing himself among the upper echelon of fantasy centers. Want an example? How about his 27 points, nine rebounds, three blocks and one steal Wednesday night. The fact that he's transformed into a legitimate block monster brings his game to a whole other level, and if you own him, enjoy his development.
Troy Murphy, PF/C, Pacers (38th): Murphy's 3-point production from the center slot was always a pleasant addition to his repertoire, but this season he's upped his game from behind the arc. His 0.9 3s per game the past two seasons were both his career highs, which he's shattering this season with 1.3 per game. He's a nightly start, and even though he missed Wednesday's game with strep throat, he'll be back soon and will continue playing well for the remainder of the season.
Ryan Gomes, SF/PF, Timberwolves (41st): His March numbers are his best for any month of the season, and Gomes does a nice job of providing in several categories with nice percentages that ensure he doesn't hurt you in any area. He dropped 26 points and eight rebounds Wednesday night in 30 minutes of play, and is playing a big enough role with his team to warrant an add in all formats.
Kevin Durant, SG/SF, Sonics (42nd): His up-and-down rookie season is coming to an incredible end. Since breaking up with his first love, aka ill-advised jumpers, Durant has been a dominant force from the floor in March, averaging 53.8 percent from the floor on 15.1 attempts per game (and 12 total 3-point attempts). He's now taking well-chosen jumpers opponents can't defend, attacking the basket, catching the ball closer to the paint, and hitting his free throws at an unconscious rate. How many rookies immediately have opposing teams' best defenders draped upon them every night from their first start in the league? Have you noticed he's averaging a steal and a block despite being criticized defensively? This is the rookie of the year, and his fantasy prospects for next season are bright.
Erick Dampier, C, Mavericks (60th): The absence of Dirk Nowitzki will force players like Josh Howard and Jason Terry to step up on the offensive end, but it's easy to forget that The Hoff's biggest fan averages nearly nine rebounds per game. Damp picked up the slack Tuesday night, snaring 17 boards and will be relied upon heavily in the paint for the rest of the season. With the insane playoff race in the West, look for Avery Johnson to pull out all stops in finishing the regular season, which means relying heavily upon his starters, including Dampier. Get him in your starting lineups and ride him while he's hot.
Randy Foye, PG/SG, Timberwolves (84th): I love Foye's chances to shine down the stretch, and his nine points, nine assists, three steals, and one 3-pointer Wednesday night is an example of his recent level of play. Perhaps the most exciting part about this game is the fact that he played more than any other player on his team. Foye is firmly entrenched in the team's long-term plans, and he'll contribute assists and steals on a regular basis.
Bonzi Wells, SG, Hornets (93rd): He's averaging more than 25 minutes per game in his past four contests and is making the most of the opportunity with 16.2 points, 2.8 steals (largely due to one eight-steal performance), 1.2 blocks and 0.5 3s in that span. If he gets consistent minutes, he's a well-rounded enough player to have fantasy value. When he harnesses his talent, he's capable of putting up huge nights, evidenced by the aforementioned steal binge and his 25 points in 26 minutes on March 19. Now that his role is clearer, those nights are becoming more frequent.
Kirk Snyder, SG, Timberwolves (95th): Since breaking into the starting lineup on March 4, Snyder is averaging 10.0 points, 0.6 steals, 0.6 blocks, 4.6 rebounds and 2.3 assists while shooting 52.5 percent from the floor and 80 percent from the stripe in 12 starts. He's improved even more recently, scoring in double digits in four of his past five contests and growing more involved on the offensive end (Wednesday night he notched 12 points, six rebounds and six assists). He's appeared on the fantasy radar out of nowhere late in the season and is worth adding in deep leagues if you need help down the stretch.
Joakim Noah, PF/C, Bulls (98th): I mentioned him last week, and he's jumped up 10 spots based upon 15-day averages since then. It's hard for me to picture him starting at center for the rest of his career, although his frenetic style of play translates into hustle stats, proven by his 1.2 steals and 1.1 blocks per game since the All-Star break. He's been efficient offensively as well, shooting 53.4 percent from the floor and 80.9 percent from the stripe, and the experience he accrued in his prestigious college career is paying off in his rookie season. It'll take awhile for all aspects of his game to round out, but he's proven that he's already ready for a big role with the Bulls.
Emeka Okafor, PF/C, Bobcats (132nd): Last year, did you imagine that Bogut would be a better nightly start than Okafor at this point of the season? Okafor can't seem to dominate on a regular basis, and although you can't bench him, temper your expectations for him for the rest of the season. His 11-point, 11-rebound performance Wednesday night was the first in five games in which he'd notched double-digit rebounds or points, and his low level of play is crippling fantasy owners relying upon him as their top center.
Delonte West, PG/SG, Cavaliers (167th): It briefly looked as if West might have solved the Cavs' perennial point guard woes, and his averages in Cleveland eclipse those he had in Seattle. But he's scored in single digits in four straight contests and is competing with Damon Jones, Devin Brown and Sasha Pavlovic for playing time. As much as I like his game, perhaps there's a reason he's played for three teams in four years, and the heavy competition for minutes in Cleveland kills his value.
Al Thornton, SF, Clippers (212th): Inconsistency is becoming a theme here, and Thornton has been all over the place recently, in typical rookie fashion. He's been bouncing in and out of the starting lineup and putting up erratic numbers. Wednesday night's 21-point, nine-rebound explosion followed three single-digit scoring efforts, and while Thornton undoubtedly proved we'll be discussing him for a long time, it's hard to rely upon him as your fantasy savior when his role with the team is so muddled.
Jannero Pargo, PG, Hornets (224th): He can score in bursts, but since he's used as offensive firepower off the bench for a team that doesn't always need him, his minutes vary on a nightly basis. This clearly makes it difficult to establish consistency, and Pargo's March stats are down from February despite averaging 20 minutes per game in both months. If you want a player you can rely upon on a night in, night out basis, look elsewhere.
Josh Whitling is a fantasy basketball analyst for ESPN.com.
