ESPN

Many of you wonder why the Player Rater is based on stat totals and not averages. The rationale here is that standard fantasy basketball leagues are played in a roto format. As you are no doubt aware, in roto leagues, the standings are based on where your team finishes relative to the league in each category. With the exception of the shooting-percentage categories, roto scoring is based on the accumulation of totals.

For example, a player who averages 17 points per game over 82 games is worth almost exactly the same as a player who averages 23 points per game over 60 games. The player who averages 17 points is probably a pretty good scorer, maybe the second- or third-best on his team. The player who averages 23 points is probably an All-Star. Either way, over the course of the whole season, each player provided your team with basically the same number of points.

What this means is that the Player Rater is focused on what has happened previously. It tells us which players have been the most valuable fantasy entities overall (and in each category) over the course of the season. This is one piece of useful information for fantasy players.

Of course, there are many more useful pieces of info out there. Fantasy basketball is fun because it is about predicting what players will do tomorrow and each subsequent day after that. We always use past performance as a basis on which to make our speculations about what is about to happen.

Just as we need to temper our enthusiasm about the player who has been just an average performer but is ranked fifth overall three games into the season because everyone else has played two, we also need to put into context the player who puts up gaudy averages in a tiny sample of games.

At the end of the season, the Player Rater, more than any other tool, will provide us with a clear picture of which players actually went out and had the best fantasy seasons for us. The usefulness of this information is, of course, up for debate, but so is all information we receive. If there were a perfect way of judging who the best fantasy player will be from today through the rest of the season, there would be no point in playing fantasy. Let's just be glad we still get to argue about the relative value of all the tools at our disposal; it's one of the conversations that makes sports great.

As for the current Player Rater, each team has now played at least 14 games, so we're starting to see the stats reflect the truth a bit more each day. Still, in case you haven't counted, Sacramento and Milwaukee are the two teams who have played the most games with 19. Clearly, there's still a range here, so when you see Spencer Hawes and John Salmons of the Kings continuing to hover in the top 20 overall, make sure you supplement that piece of knowledge with a healthy bit of skepticism.

Danny Granger, SF, Pacers (6): While I acknowledged at the beginning of the season that Granger might be worthy of a late first-round pick, I was really going with my head and not my heart. I just didn't see him as a go-to-guy type of scorer. In the early part of the season, he has completely changed my mind. According to John Hollinger's PER (Player Efficiency Ranking) stats, Granger currently sits at No. 11 overall in usage rate. The only players with higher usage rates to play more minutes per game are Devin Harris and Dwyane Wade. Clearly, Granger is using a lot of possessions. He's been perfect for fantasy, because he uses those possessions in part by jacking up seven 3-pointers every night.

The reason I think he could move up from (or at least remain at) sixth overall on the Player Rater is that he still hasn't quite perfected his role. In terms of his turnover rate and assist rate, he is more comparable to Charlie Villanueva and Gerald Green than Paul Pierce and Stephen Jackson, which is to say there is room for improvement. I think he'll continue doing everything that's making him great in fantasy -- scoring points, hitting 3's, blocking shots, making free throws -- but that over the course of the season, his assist numbers will rise, making him even more valuable.

Caron Butler, SF, Wizards (30): Tough Juice has been a bright spot of late for the Wizards, who are in the running for worst team in the league. He's averaging 23.2 points, 6.2 rebounds, 4.8 assists, 2.6 steals, and over one 3-pointer over his past five games to go along with his customarily great percentages. The only thing holding him back is the fact that the Wizards have only played 14 games (a league low), so he has some catching up to do in the counting stats. As long as he's healthy, he's going to give you first-round production, so buy now if you can.

Jose Calderon, PG, Raptors (46): We all know Calderon's efficiency is legendarily good and that he is invaluable in leagues that count turnovers. The reason he is currently rated a lot lower than many of us expected is that he missed two games with a hamstring injury and hasn't shot the rock so well since he's been back. He's down to 44.5 percent for the season, and you can expect that number, and his value, to climb back up over the course of the year. Remarkably, he has yet to miss a free throw this season -- he's 43-of-43 -- so keep an eye out to see if Michael Williams' record of 97 straight is in danger.

O.J. Mayo, SG, Grizzlies (13): While there is nothing inflated in Mayo's stats besides the heavy, heavy minutes he is playing (fifth overall in the league at 39.4 per game), I think that figure alone might be enough to cause concern. Think about is this way: His minutes can't go up. He can't conceivably play significantly more minutes than he's playing now. As such, we're probably seeing his numbers peak. It's likely that he hits the famed Rookie Wall at some point, and unless you're in a keeper league, I doubt you'll be able to sell higher at any point. I love the kid, but if I'm a betting man, I'm betting this is as good as it gets for his rookie campaign.

Ray Allen, SG, Celtics (14): What do we make of Ray Allen? Sure, he's getting a bump on the Rater because he has played 18 games to a lot of other folks' 16 or 17, but did anyone expect him to end up anywhere near even the top 40 this year? He has increased his PER slightly from last season by hitting more of his two-point field goals, getting to the line more and rebounding better. That said, in terms of fantasy, his steals, assists, and 3-point percentage are as low as they have been since the '90s. Perhaps his field-goal percentage will come down a bit, but he is playing fewer minutes than he has played since the '90s, too, so perhaps his legs will stay fresh for the whole season. He's going to come down a bit, but not too much. If you drafted him this year, you probably got a pretty good bargain.

Roger Mason, PG/SG, Spurs (37): Sell now! Jump ship! Yes, it's possible that he'll set a career high in PER and continue to be this productive, albeit in more limited minutes, now that Manu Ginobili and Tony Parker are back in the fold, but it's not likely. More likely is that his 52.4 percent shooting from long range is about to take a nosedive toward 40 percent, which would mean two 3s per game instead of 2.7. That alone is the difference between being ranked in the 30s and being ranked in the 50s. Couple that with pretty severely reduced minutes (he played against the Rockets on Saturday and didn't make a single 3), and you have the end of the Roger Mason glory days in fantasy leagues.

Seth Landman is a fantasy basketball analyst for ESPN.com.