Commentary

Player Rater: J.R. Smith has huge upside as starter

Updated: March 9, 2009, 2:29 PM ET
By Seth Landman | Special to ESPN.com

One of the more significant moves in the NBA this past week, in terms of fantasy value, happened when Nuggets coach George Karl inserted J.R. Smith into the starting lineup and indicated that Smith would remain there for the foreseeable future. There are quite a few things that could go wrong with this experiment; the Nuggets lost to the Kings on Sunday and Smith compiled a team-worst minus-15 during Smith's 36 minutes of action. What's more, we've seen for years that Smith drives Karl nuts with his lack of focus during games, so even though Smith, on talent, is the obvious choice to be the starter at shooting guard, Karl has been playing lesser talent at that spot all season and could start again at any moment.

Even considering all of that, Smith is one of the best bargains around at the moment. He's available in more than 61 percent of ESPN.com fantasy leagues. A player like Smith, as a starter, should be good for 20 points and two 3-pointers a night for the rest of the season. Chances are that, with increased minutes, he'll throw in three or four assists and rebounds as well, making him a decent contributor across the board. Starters with this kind of fantasy potential are not generally available at this point of the season, so you'll probably want to grab him while you still can. Remember, Smith was a hot sleeper pick at the start of the season because he was so good at scoring in limited action last season. The ceiling, for the immediate future, has been removed from the playing time part of that equation, and there is some major potential for fantasy value during the next few weeks.

Going up (rankings based on total stats and average stats)

Mike Miller
Sam Forencich/NBAE/Getty ImagesMike Miller's scoring is down, but he's still helping out elsewhere.
Mike Miller, SG/SF, Timberwolves (122, 118): Even though Miller has spent a big chunk of the season injured and seemed to not play very well when he was actually playing, he is currently averaging 9.6 points, 6.1 rebounds, 4.2 assists and 1.1 3-pointers while shooting 49 percent from the floor. These numbers are completely acceptable and make Miller worth owning in most, if not all, fantasy leagues. For the entire month of February, however, Miller went for 12.8 points, 6.2 rebounds and 5.2 assists on 60 percent shooting in 13 games. Those numbers are tremendous. In four games in March, his shooting has fallen off a cliff briefly (it will come back), but he's averaging 7.8 rebounds and 5.8 assists. Basically, on nights when he isn't shooting well, he concentrates on other things and does them well. In a blowout loss to the Lakers on Friday, Miller was scoreless but finished with five boards and nine assists. He took only four shots, so the bad shooting didn't even hurt you that much. This is a great player to own down the stretch, and I would have him in my lineup every night.

Rodney Stuckey, PG/SG, Pistons (123, 135): Lost in all the hubbub surrounding the Pistons' recent play and Richard Hamilton's return to the starting lineup has been the fact that Stuckey is still starting. He's been playing quite effectively of late, averaging 16.4 points, 4.8 assists, 4.2 rebounds, 1.2 steals and shooting 53 percent in his past five games. Remarkably, he's available in 56 percent of ESPN.com fantasy leagues. Pick him up immediately if yours is one of them.

Thaddeus Young, SF, 76ers (102, 124): I was extremely high on Young when the season started, and at first it seemed as though I was right. He was making 3-pointers with regularity, scoring a lot, getting a ton of minutes and rebounding enough to be relevant in that category. For the first few weeks of the season, in the midst of their worst struggles, the Sixers counted Young as their top scorer. Then he stopped making 3s and his fantasy value dried up entirely. He's still playing a ton of minutes and recently has started scoring with a little more regularity. He's averaging 17.2 points and 2.0 steals in his past five games. The 2.0 steals per game actually holds up during his past 15 games, too. Based on his solid contributions in that category and his raw potential everywhere else, I can see his stock taking a major leap for the rest of this season. Expect a few huge games out of him down the stretch and solid production aside from that.

Since the trading deadline has passed in most fantasy leagues, rather than coming down on players I think are going to drop in the rankings in the coming weeks, I thought it might be more helpful to scour the Player Rater for some more guys who are likely available in your league on the waiver wire.

Larry Hughes, SG, Knicks (196, 131), owned in 16 percent of ESPN.com leagues: He's playing close to 40 minutes per night in his past five games for the Knicks, averaging 16.2 points, 4.0 assists, 2.4 steals and 2.4 3-pointers. If you can find a player getting this many minutes at this point of the season on your waiver wire, it's probably worth adding him. It's hard not to produce when you are playing almost the entire game.

Spencer Hawes
Rocky Widner/NBAE/Getty ImagesSpencer Hawes' ability to knock it down on the perimeter is a nice bonus.
Spencer Hawes, PF/C, Kings (126, 142), owned in 41.5 percent of ESPN.com leagues: As a starting center who is actually a good player, it's sort of shocking that he isn't owned in every league. In his past five games, he's averaging 11.2 points and 9.2 rebounds, which are numbers I'm sure you can use. On the season, he's also been a decent source of blocks, averaging 1.4 per game in fewer than 28 minutes. He's even a 34 percent shooter on 3-pointers and made three of them in the Kings' win against the Nuggets on Sunday. He's a decent contributor right now, but his ability to block shots and shoot the 3 makes his fantasy potential extremely exciting.

Raja Bell, SG, Bobcats (140, 146), owned in 48 percent of ESPN.com leagues: Bell was hurt for a while, and understandably was dropped in many fantasy leagues. Frankly, I was way down on Bell when he was traded to the Bobcats, despite the lingering suspicion that Larry Brown was going to play him until his legs fell off. Well, Bell has been healthy for a few weeks now, and plays 40 minutes on more nights than he doesn't. He's a fantastic source of 3-pointers, and accumulates enough points, rebounds, assists and steals that he's worth owning in all formats. Pick him up immediately if you can.

Matt Barnes, SF, Suns (148, 152), owned in 9 percent of ESPN.com leagues: In his past five games, Barnes is averaging 16.0 points, 5.8 rebounds, 3.0 assists and 3.2 3-pointers. The 3s alone make him worth owning in most leagues. He's playing a ton of minutes on a team everyone pays attention to, and yet nobody owns this guy in fantasy. People, pick him up! It's guys like this who can win you a championship down the stretch.

Seth Landman is a fantasy basketball analyst for ESPN.com.

Seth Landman

Fantasy Basketball
Seth Landman is a fantasy basketball analyst for ESPN.com.

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