Working the Wire: Drop KG? You might have to.
With April right around the corner, it's officially "do or die" time for fantasy owners.
This is a particularly intriguing time of year for fantasy owners as NBA teams prepare themselves for the end of the season. Teams that are already in the playoffs might cut back their starters' minutes, and teams that are in the basement might take a closer look at their younger players in preparation for next season.
In fantasy football, most leagues don't count the final week of the season to protect against this sort of behavior. But in hoops, we play all the way through, and that means we might not be able to rely on some of the players that we've relied upon all season long. With that in mind, here are six players who are causing some anxiety for their owners right now. Who can we trust, and who should we be wary of for the stretch run?
Devin Harris, PG, Nets: Harris owners are actually pretty lucky that the Nets still have an outside shot at earning the final playoff spot in the East, because he probably wouldn't be thinking about suiting up Friday night if they were out of the playoff race. He's still a risk to be shut down because of his shoulder injury if the Nets fall out of contention, but it looks like he will make a run at finishing out the season, and he should be back in fantasy lineups. If Harris is limited in any way due to the shoulder injury, Keyon Dooling and Chris Douglas-Roberts would continue to produce in New Jersey.
Kevin Garnett, PF, Celtics: I can't get nearly as excited about KG as I am about the potential return of Devin Harris, not when coach Doc Rivers has already gone on record as saying his star player won't see more than 25 minutes per game the rest of the way. In four games since returning from a knee injury, Garnett has seen just 16.8 minutes and has averaged 9.0 points, 4.5 rebounds, 0.5 steals and 0.8 blocks per game. That's not even start-worthy in fantasy, and although his minutes should creep up to the 20-25 minute mark beginning next week, owners might actually have to think about dropping KG (who has recently been removed from the "undroppables" list) in favor of a player with more upside.
Richard Hamilton, Pistons: Good news for Richard Hamilton owners: Rip reportedly will suit up Saturday against the Wizards. He was killing it before going down with a groin injury, averaging 22.8 points, 4.0 rebounds, 8.4 assists and 1.1 3-pointers in eight March games before the injury. With Allen Iverson's status still in jeopardy, Rip will enjoy inflated numbers, at least until AI returns.
Manu Ginobili, SG, Spurs: I'm looking at Manu the same way I'm looking at Garnett right now. We all know both players can still get it done, but neither will see enough time on the court to put up their typical stats. Manu returned to the lineup Wednesday but played just 14 minutes in a victory over the Hawks, and Gregg Popovich is unlikely to run him out there for much more than 20-25 minutes per game. It's sad to say, but owners need to think about giving up on Manu and going in another direction for the final few weeks of the season.
Stephen Jackson, SG/SF, Warriors: Jackson is on the verge of shutting things down because of a toe injury, and while it's not set in stone yet, fantasy owners need to make alternate plans because it looks like this is going to happen. S-Jax has had a terrific season, but there's no harm in dropping him now for a free agent who will be on the court.
Kelenna Azubuike, SG/SF, Warriors (29.5 percent owned): It's quite surprising that a guy like Azubuike is still available in more than 70 percent of fantasy leagues despite averaging a versatile 13.9 points, 4.8 rebounds, 0.8 steals, 0.7 blocks and 1.3 3-pointers while shooting 50.4 percent from the floor and 80.7 percent from the line in the month of March. With Stephen Jackson (toe) ready to shut things down and Corey Maggette potentially following suit in April, Buike is about as safe as things get in Golden State.
Anthony Morrow, SG, Warriors (6.4 percent owned): Morrow's 29-point effort Wednesday will turn some heads, especially when you consider he drained six 3-pointers on the night. Morrow has shown flashes of brilliance this season, but coach Don Nelson's ever-changing rotations kept him from becoming a consistent fantasy threat. He would be in store for a major bump in minutes if Stephen Jackson actually does shut it down, and he could turn into a big-time fantasy contributor in the month of April. Just as a reference point, Morrow has averaged 16.3 points, 4.1 rebounds, 1.1 steals and 2.2 3-pointers in 10 starts this season.
Ronald Murray, SG, Hawks (3.2 percent owned): Stepping up to help provide some instant offense for the Marvin Williams-less Hawks, Flip Murray has caught fire with 19.6 points, 2.0 3-pointers and a steal per game over his past five games. If we've learned anything about Flip over the years, it's that he can light up the scoreboard when he's getting minutes. And since the Hawks are just hoping to have Williams back for the playoffs, Flip seems to be a solid pickup for points, 3-pointers and steals the rest of the way.
Steve Blake, PG, Blazers (19.0 percent owned): Blake started slow after returning from a shoulder injury in February and has been flying under the radar ever since. Owners might not have noticed, but Blake has averaged a solid 12.8 points, 5.1 assists, 0.9 steals and 2.6 3-pointers in the month of March. Anyone in need of assists and 3-pointers this late in the season should give Blake a look for the stretch run.
Lou Williams, PG, Sixers (7.5 percent owned): Regular readers of this space already know about my obsession with Williams, but I haven't had a chance to talk about him much recently, mostly because he hasn't given me a reason to. But over the past few weeks, Williams has re-emerged as a pickup candidate, with 15.4 points, 4.0 assists, 2.0 steals and 1.2 3-pointers over his past five games. It is somewhat alarming that he's seeing only 27.4 minutes per game during that time, but Williams is the type of player who can produce in limited minutes when he's hot like he is now.
Craig Smith, PF, Timberwolves (0.9 percent owned): Smith can be inconsistent from game to game, but he has quite a knack for putting the ball in the basket when he's playing a lot of minutes. Over his past five contests, he has scored 15.2 points per game while shooting 58 percent from the floor. He's also a decent rebounder but isn't on the court enough to really make a huge difference in that category. Still, if you need points and a boost in field goal percentage at this point in the season, be sure to take a look at Smith.
Nick Young/Andray Blatche, Wizards (5.7 and 4.8 percent owned): Both Blatche and Young were mentioned last week, but after a few more good games and not much movement in their percentage-owned numbers, I feel the need to address them again this week. The Wizards have nothing left to play for other than development for next season, and it would be a surprise to see Caron Butler (or Gilbert Arenas) have much of an impact over the last few weeks of the season. In Butler's absence, Blatche has turned his game up a notch and averaged 13.6 points, 7.0 rebounds and 1.4 blocks over his past five games, while Young is more of a scorer, with 16.4 points, 0.8 steals and 1.2 3-pointers during the same span.
Nick Collison, PF/C, Thunder (41.9 percent owned): I've had some bad luck with Collison in the past. It seems as though every time I mention him, I jinx him back into obscurity. Perhaps this time he'll actually stay relevant the rest of the way. Despite splitting minutes with Nenad Krstic in the paint for the Thunder, Collison has managed to average close to a double-double (9.2 points and 9.4 rebounds) over his past five games. His upside is fairly limited thanks to the time-share, but Collison could certainly help teams in need of rebounds for the stretch run.
Brian McKitish is a fantasy basketball analyst for ESPN.com. He can be reached at bmckitish@yahoo.com.
