For as much flack as Steve McNair takes from fantasy owners, he was better than I expected in 2006. Then again, somebody down in the Chesapeake area once said something about the "soft bigotry of low expectations," and when you're getting praised for not leaving multiple games on a stretcher, maybe you shouldn't throw a party.
Uber-injured McNair had to leave only two games in '06 (against Carolina and Cleveland), never missed a start and led Baltimore to a 13-3 record and an AFC North crown. The unheralded stars of the Ravens' season were their offensive linemen: Mike Flynn, Keydrick Vincent, Tony Pashos, Jason Brown (who stepped in for injured Edwin Mulitalo) and, of course, Jonathan Ogden (although Ogden wasn't his former dominating self). The 2005 Ravens allowed 42 sacks, mostly for poor Kyle Boller, while the '06 team only allowed 14. As a result, McNair threw for 3,050 yards and 16 scores.
The fact that this very solid O-line played the pass well makes me think Jamal Lewis's mediocre season (1,132 yards, nine scores, 3.6 yards per carry) was mostly the fault of Jamal Lewis. Captain Tippy-Toe continued to get 3 yards down the field, feel a mild breeze, and fall down. And without Chester Taylor around, the run game wasn't consistent enough to support Derrick Mason, Mark Clayton, Todd Heap and the rest of the decent air attack. The Ravens' predictability and stubborn conservatism finally did them in during a home playoff game against Indianapolis, when the Colts stacked the defensive line and dared McNair to beat them. He couldn't.
Key Additions
RB Willis McGahee
QB Troy Smith
Key Losses
RB Jamal Lewis
LB Adalius Thomas
RB Ovie Mughelli
OL Edwin Mulitalo
OL Tony Pashos
Probable Lineup
QB: Steve McNair
RB1: Willis McGahee
RB2: Mike Anderson
WR1: Derrick Mason
WR2: Mark Clayton
WR3: Demetrius Williams
TE: Todd Heap
K: Matt Stover
Quarterbacks
Boller has spit the bit enough as a starter that the Ravens know they'll be in serious trouble if McNair gets seriously injured, but as a backup, he's quite good. In the two games in which he logged significant snaps, he was 30-for-52 for 464 yards, five touchdowns and two interceptions. Hey, considering Matt Cassel, Craig Nall, Dan Orlovsky and Cleo Lemon are backups in this league, Boller ain't half bad. Keep an eye on Heisman winner Troy Smith, too.
Running Backs
Musa Smith looked better than Jamal Lewis in his 36 carries last year (he averaged 4.3 yards per tote), and would likely be the Ravens' choice of lead dog should McGahee get injured in '07. (At this point, Mike Anderson is more of a fullback type.) Smith also caught 22 passes for 135 yards in '06, and while he doesn't fit the typical profile of a third-down back (he's 6-foot, 232 pounds), neither does anyone else on this team, so he could find himself on the field in long-yardage situations. He's probably not a must-handcuff to McGahee owners, though.
Wide Receivers
Because Mason and Clayton are smaller starting receivers, a guy like Demetrius Williams makes an interesting deep-league play, because he's a bigger guy the Ravens seem to trust in the red zone. Williams caught two scores in his rookie year (including, to be fair, a 77-yarder from Boller). Giant Clarence Moore caught one close-in score last year, too, and had four back in '05.
Tight Ends
Daniel Wilcox is another red-zone guy the Ravens use when they run two-tight-end sets. In 2006, he caught 20 passes, three of which went for touchdowns. Of course, because he plays in Baltimore, any value he might have is severely limited by the presence of Todd Heap. Wilcox also lost two fumbles last year.
Week 1 @ Cincinnati Bengals
Week 8 Bye
Week 9 @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Week 10 Cincinnati Bengals
Week 14 Indianapolis Colts
Week 15 @ Miami Dolphins
Week 16 @ Seattle Seahawks
Week 17 Pittsburgh Steelers
McNair isn't a top-20 fantasy quarterback option anymore, and truthfully he might not even be top 25. The fact that he emerged unscathed from 2006 is a minor miracle, one I don't expect to see repeated in '07. He's injury prone to a max degree, and even when he's playing, he's usually limping around. McNair is also exceedingly gun shy when it comes to taking chances. Sure, he'll throw it deep when his guy looks wide open, but he dumps off a ton of passes (see also: AFC Divisional Round loss to Indy), as his meager 6.5 yards per attempt illustrates. Granted, Heap is a nice, big, safe weapon, and Mason is a possession guy McNair trusts. But Clayton is ready to be a big-time player, and McNair doesn't always seem willing to use him deep.
At running back, exit Lewis, enter McGahee. By almost any measure, McGahee represents at least a mild upgrade. He's two years younger, has less tread on his tires (he's entering his fourth full season; Lewis' first was 2000), doesn't have Lewis' past legal troubles, and would appear to have more explosiveness left in his legs. Yet McGahee wasn't all that much better in Buffalo last year than Lewis was in Baltimore: He rushed for 990 yards in 14 games, logged 3.8 yards per carry, and scored just six times. Granted, the Bills' offensive line was worse than the Ravens', but still, those aren't numbers that back up McGahee's infamous claim that he's the best running back in football (this just in: he isn't). As I mentioned earlier, Baltimore's running game struggles were probably more Lewis than Ogden and Co., but I'm not positive McGahee cures all ills. He's a top-20 fantasy back, but barely.
At receiver, anyone who's still got Mason ahead of Clayton on their fantasy cheat sheet still thinks the Macarena is a real hoot. Mason is the possession receiver on this team; he's got spectacular hands and runs good routes, but at age 33 his speed is diminished and he's no longer the playmaker you remember from his days with McNair in Tennessee. He might be the lead receiver on this team in name, but he's not big enough to be a real red-zone threat, and he won't stretch the field. He's a top-50 wideout, but his days as a fantasy starter are gone. The guy to know here is Clayton. Entering his third year as an NFL wide receiver, the University of Oklahoma product showed flashes of brilliance in '06, with five catches of 40 yards or more, which is pretty good for the close-to-the-vest Ravens. On a different team, with a better quarterback, Clayton would be a fantasy star. As it is, he's still going to post 1,000 yards receiving, but because Baltimore isn't going to air it out much, it's hard to imagine him scoring more than five or six touchdowns. Heap is the primary red-zone aerial target (Clayton was targeted 13 times in the red zone last year, and caught just one TD on those throws), and bigger guys like Williams and Wilcox (and maybe Moore and Devard Darling) are apt to be on the receiving end of short touchdown passes. In fantasy leagues that add points for longer scores, though, Clayton bumps up to a top-20 receiver.
Then there's Heap. He's shaken the injury-prone label, having turned in consecutive seasons of 75 and 73 receptions, is good for around 800 receiving yards each season, and will score six or seven times. That puts him in the elite class of tight ends, as does the fact that the Ravens just love to throw to his position; in '06, tight ends accounted for just under 30 percent of the team's total receptions. McNair hasn't become any less of a dump-off artist in the offseason, which means Heap is a top-five option.
Finally, there's the defense, which is always one of the most-hyped in the NFL. This unit recovered nicely from an injury-plagued '05 to limit its 2006 opponents to 10 points or fewer seven times, and never gave up more than 26 points. The Ravens collected 60 sacks, second-best in the league, and picked off a whopping 28 passes, tops in the NFL (including five for touchdowns). Newly acquired Trevor Pryce had 13 sacks and was great, and rookie Haloti Ngata plugged the middle admirably. The departure of Adalius Thomas to New England hurts, but there are still great stars here: Ray Lewis, Ed Reed, Terrell Suggs and Bart Scott, to name a few. If guys like Lewis and Reed stay healthy, this easily is a top-five fantasy defense once again.
Heap is the real fantasy star of this offense, but don't discount the possibility that Clayton notches a few more long scores than I project him for here, which could vault him into borderline No. 1 receiver status. McGahee will get drafted too high in most leagues; I wouldn't take him in the first round, but that's probably where he'll go. (Heck, I probably wouldn't take him in the second round of shallow leagues, either.) The Ravens are in a tough division, and 13-3 only seems possible again if McNair stays as healthy as he did in '06, which won't happen. But the team's December games should be meaningful, though the back end of Baltimore's schedule (San Diego, New England, Indianapolis, Miami, Seattle and Pittsburgh) looks brutal.
Christopher Harris is a fantasy baseball, football and racing analyst for ESPN.com. You can e-mail him here.



