Fantasy Football: Panthers Team Preview
Few teams were as disappointing as the Panthers in 2006. After making it all the way to the conference championship the year before, the team slipped to 8-8 and were a fringe playoff contender, which actually masked the fact that the offense fell far short of expectations. The Panthers finished 27th in scoring (16.9 points per game) and 24th in total yards (307.7 per game).Ultimately Carolina only offered fantasy owners one truly useful commodity: star receiver Steve Smith.
In the offseason, though, the Panthers made it clear they felt coaching -- not player personnel -- was largely responsible for the team's lackluster season, dispatching offensive coordinator Dan Henning and replacing him with Jeff Davidson, a Bill Belichick disciple. Davidson's task: Breath new life into an offense that will be similar to what the team ran in '06. The departure of rapidly-aging receiver Keyshawn Johnson and addition of underachieving quarterback David Carr are the team's only notable changes.
Key Additions
QB David Carr
Offensive coordinator Jeff Davidson
WR Dwayne Jarrett
Key Losses
Offensive coordinator Dan Henning
WR Keyshawn Johnson
Probable Lineup
QB: Jake Delhomme
RB1: DeShaun Foster
RB2: DeAngelo Williams
WR1: Steve Smith
WR2: Dwayne Jarrett
TE: Michael Gaines
K: John Kasay
Quarterbacks
Carr is a player who has completed more than 60 percent of his passes -- 68.3 in 2006 -- for a much worse team than this three years straight. His arrival will allow the team to keep Delhomme on a much shorter leash than it did with Chris Weinke backing him up, and this could quickly turn into a must-handcuff situation. Don't be surprised if Carr sneaks in some starts, particularly if the Panthers kick off the regular season as sluggish on offense as they looked in 2006. After all, he turns 28 in July and fits the team's long-term plans better.
Running Backs
You can't find running back battle that is tougher to gauge than this one. If Davidson's new zone-blocking scheme pays dividends, as many Panthers players are already predicting in early workouts, there might not be a more important battle to track in the preseason. Williams is the high-upside player, and as a result the more intriguing fantasy pick, but weren't we all saying the same thing about him last season? Foster, meanwhile, brings the experience but also a checkered injury history. The smart money has the two sharing carries for the second consecutive season, albeit with more success in the Davidson era. If Williams shows signs of adapting to the new system in the preseason, one even he admits is similar to those from his college days at Memphis, him grabbing the starting role and -- pardon the pun -- running with it can't be ruled out.
Wide Receivers
Johnson's departure might create an interesting sleeper opportunity for whoever starts opposite Smith, but any fantasy appeal there should be met with at least as much concern that no one steps up and Smith winds up facing frequent double-teams. It's best to adopt a wait-and-see approach here. Sizeable-yet-speedy Drew Carter, 2007 second-rounder Dwayne Jarrett and 2004 No. 2 man Keary Colbert, in that order of fantasy appeal, would either need standout training camps to warrant late-round sleeper consideration, or hot starts to the regular season to be prime additions.
Tight Ends
Jeff King could see an expanded role in the passing game with Kris Mangum's departure, perhaps even pressing Gaines as Delhomme's preferred target at the position. But is that really all that appealing a role? Panthers tight ends haven't combined for more than 51 receptions, 480 yards or five touchdowns in any season in the Delhomme era, so the only hope of sleeper potential here is that Davidson gets his tight ends more involved in the red zone -- perhaps the weakest aspect of Carolina's offense in 2006. For fantasy, though, those TD passes are so infrequent and so tough to predict, they're hardly worth banking on.
Week 1 @ St. Louis Rams
Week 2 Houston Texans
Week 7 Bye
Week 8 Indianapolis Colts
Week 9 @ Tennessee Titans
Week 14 @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Week 15 Seattle Seahawks
Week 16 Dallas Cowboys
Week 17 @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The simple switch from Henning's predictable approach to Davidson's zone-blocking scheme should amount to at least a minor rebirth of the Panthers' offense, and that alone could be enough to amount to a noticeable improvement in 2007. For one, it should keep the defense, which might not be an elite unit but is still talented enough to offer decent value accounting for matchups, off the field a bit more and therefore keep it fresher. Look at the schedule: the Panthers get the Texans (Week 2), Buccaneers (Weeks 4 and 17), Titans (Week 9), Packers (Week 11) and 49ers (Week 13), each of those teams could be considered a quality matchup for an opposing defense.
In addition, even if it's no guarantee, any strategy that might more aptly exploit the raw talent in Williams, who is a key to this team's future, warrants a look. Change alone could be enough to inspire his breakout season, so of all Panthers who you want to scout in the preseason, he tops the list. Bet on both him and Foster running with more success this season, with each of them proving a must-have handcuff for the other.
Ultimately, when talking about the Panthers, it's the Steve Smith show, first and foremost. Consider that in the past two years combined, Smith hauled in 186 passes for 2,729 yards and 20 touchdowns, while the Panthers' other wide receivers had 173-2,206-15 numbers by comparison. Fortunately, he's a talent who tends to rise above the worry of constant defensive attention, and it's not hard to imagine Davidson's tweaks to the offense earning Smith the crown of top fantasy wide receiver for 2007.
Looking at his 2006 numbers, it might seem Delhomme is on the downside of his career. Still, he's only 32 years old and entering his fifth season as a starter, so don't completely write him off yet. Much of his problems in 2006 could be attributed to poor support from the running game, and he does still have Smith, one of the game's most talented receivers, at his disposal. The problem, is that although he's a capable starter for an NFL or a fantasy team, Delhomme has limited upside, and he does throw questionable passes on occasion. Consider Delhomme a serviceable fantasy starter, but in the event things go awry again, be prepared for the possibility that Carr overtakes him.
Kasay is a perfect example of the fickle nature of kickers. When his Panthers performed well in 2003 and 2005, he was a top-five fantasy performer. In their disappointing years of 2004 and 2006, he struggled to crack the top 20. It's not that Kasay is a poor kicker, not at all -- he had the most successful field goals of 50-plus yards (4) of anyone and ranked third with 12 of 40-plus in 2006. It's more that kickers are so inherently tied to the performance of their offenses, not their individual talent. In Kasay's situation, that probably means he needs Davidson's approach to translate to instant success to warrant weekly consideration.
As has been the case for four straight years, the Panthers should again be a playoff contender, even if it's only in a "fringe" capacity. That's not a bad thing to be for fantasy, though, especially not come our playoff time. Status quo might seem the theme of the Panthers' roster, but there's better performance here than we saw in 2007. Smith is a fantasy stud/potential first-rounder, Delhomme can be reliable enough to start, and there's a decent share of upside in both the running backs and the defense.
Tristan H. Cockcroft covers fantasy sports for ESPN.com. You can e-mail him here.


