Going into the 2006 season, the biggest question the Cincinnati Bengals faced was the performance of quarterback Carson Palmer in his return from a devastating knee injury in the '05 playoffs. As it turned out, he was one of the few skill players that exceeded expectations last season. Instead, the downward turn Cincinnati made can be attributed to a lack of maturity and/or veteran leadership.
In the offseason, Bengals players continued to disappoint. Since the beginning of 2007, no fewer than seven Bengals have had run-ins with law enforcement. Normally, this wouldn't be of concern on a fantasy level, but if this course doesn't change dramatically -- and soon -- there's a distinct possibility that wholesale changes will be made on the Bengals roster, which would destabilize both the team's offensive and defensive units.
Some of the more recent legal woes include:
• Quincy Wilson (RB) was arrested for misdemeanor disorderly conduct.
• A.J. Nicholson (LB) was arrested for misdemeanor fourth-degree assault.
• Frostee Rucker (DL) pled guilty to misdemeanor charges of false imprisonment and vandalism.
• Chris Henry (WR) was charged with driving with a suspended license, failing to wear a seat belt and failing to use a turn signal.
• Deltha O'Neal (DB) pled guilty to reckless driving.
• Odell Thurman (LB) pled no contest to DUI charges.
Head coach Marvin Lewis is known as a disciplinarian, and it would be wise for fantasy players to expect a much tighter leash in Cincinnati this season, so taking a chance on any of the Bengals with behavioral issues is very risky this season.
Key Additions
Alex Stepanovich (OL)
Michael Myers (DL)
Key Losses
Shaun Smith (DL)
Sam Adams (DL)
Tory James (DB)
Kevin Kaesviharn (DB)
Kelley Washington (WR)
Eric Steinbach (OL)
Anthony Wright (QB)
Chris Henry (WR) -- suspended at least the first eight games of the season
Probable Lineup
QB: Carson Palmer
RB: Rudi Johnson
RB2: Kenny Watson
WR1: Chad Johnson
WR2: T.J. Houshmandzadeh
WR3: Antonio Chatman
TE: Reggie Kelly
K: Shayne Graham
Key Backups/Position Battles
Perhaps completely fed up with the oft-injured Chris Perry, the Bengals selected Kenny Irons in the NFL draft to provide additional depth in the backfield. Once expected to be among the top running backs selected, Irons fell in part because his numbers at the combine disappointed many scouts. He remains a powerful runner and has the potential to be a solid short-yardage back, so he's worth a late-round flier in deep keeper leagues as he contends to be Rudi Johnson's primary backup.
Chris Henry has been suspended for eight games stemming from multiple transgressions of the law. Henry might best be described as a Hall of Fame talent with a garbage-pail head. If he complies with the mandated requirements, he should return to the Bengals just before their Week 9 game, which will lead to a battle for the No. 3 wide receiver slot with Antonio Chatman for the rest of the season. Chatman is worth a late-round pick in deeper leagues; avoid drafting Henry, but you should keep an eye on his availability in your league as his return gets closer.
Quarterbacks
Carson Palmer is a young, prototypical drop-back passer. He's a top-three quarterback with two excellent weapons at wide receiver. Expecting a 4,000-yard, 28-TD campaign is well within reason. He's a steal in the third round, but you may need to invest a second-round selection in order to obtain his services.
Doug Johnson was brought in prior to last season to provide a veteran backup in case Palmer was unable to make a complete return. If Johnson sees prolonged playing time, the Bengals are in deep, deep trouble. He's a suitable replacement on a short-term basis but isn't talented enough to earn a handcuff label even if it requires only a late-round pick.
Running Backs
Rudi Johnson was a borderline No. 1 running back entering the 2006 NFL season, and he earned that level last season despite averaging only 3.8 yards per carry. Expect Johnson to be the backfield workhorse again as he is likely to receive over 350 combined touches.
Bengals management would like to see either Chris Perry or Kenny Irons step up and be the clear No.2 option in the backfield, but questions surround both. While those two push each other for that slot, Kenny Watson will return as the third-down back. Watson caught 23 balls last season, and since he's the best receiving option in the backfield, he's poised to do the same in 2007.
While the presence of Jeremi Johnson seems to annoy Rudi Johnson's owners once or twice a year when Jeremi vultures a touchdown, he holds no fantasy value in the current configuration of this backfield.
Wide Receivers
While being faster than a racehorse and being able to leap short defenders in a single bound might draw comparisons to Superman on normal Sundays, Chad Johnson almost completely disappeared during the fantasy playoffs last year. It was an aberration, not the rule. Ocho-cinco (or quatre-vingts cinq in France or Quebec) is an elite wide receiver and should be drafted as such. He's going to be one of the best draft-day values around. If he's there for you in the middle or end of the second round, take him and don't look back.
The only things standing between T.J. Houshmandzadeh and stardom are his inability to stay healthy enough to play all 16 games and the fact that no one can spell his name. On a per-game basis, Houshmandzadeh outscored Chad Johnson last season. Although he's smaller than Johnson, he's actually more effective in the red zone. Grabbing Houshmandzadeh during the run of second-tier wideouts is encouraged.
As mentioned above, Antonio Chatman -- the third receiving option at the start of the season -- is worth a flier, albeit barely.
Tight Ends
There are no fantasy tight end options on the Bengals. If you are completely desperate for a one-week filler, take a flier on Reggie Kelly and hope for a 1-yard touchdown.
Kickers
If the owners of your league are intelligent, they won't be spending an early pick on a kicker. Shayne Graham is one of several kickers you should consider near the end of your draft. The Bengals' offense will put up its fair share of points, which is the basic recipe for success for any kicker.
Key Games/Bye
Week 1 - Baltimore Ravens
Week 4 - New England Patriots
Week 7 - New York Jets
Week 8 - Pittsburgh Steelers
Week 10 - @ Baltimore Ravens
Week 13 - @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Week 14 - St. Louis Rams
Week 15 - @ San Francisco 49ers
Week 16 - Cleveland Browns
Week 17 - @ Miami Dolphins
What to Look for in 2007
Cincinnati is supremely talented at the skill positions and has a solid enough defense to contend in the AFC North. The Bengals' placement in that division is a positive for fantasy owners. With division rivals that can be expected to field very competitive teams, it's extremely likely that the Bengals will be playing either for a playoff spot or a division crown all the way through Week 17. On a conservative side, they're a safe bet for no fewer than eight wins. On the optimistic side, one could project up to 13 wins for this team.
Without Henry, Palmer's receiving options are limited. Therefore, Chad Johnson and T.J. Houshmandzadeh both will need to stay healthy and play at their usual levels to allow the Bengals to be a better-than-average team this season. They both are capable of such. Regardless of that receiving tandem's production, Rudi Johnson must improve his yards-per-carry average.
It may seem like a lot of things have to go right for the Bengals to be successful on offense, but it's really not that much. They need their star players to play like stars. If they each can, the Bengals will be a very solid, if not dangerous, team. If you are still in doubt at which outcome you think is more likely, look at the de facto captain, the quarterback, and think of what he did last year coming back from a devastating knee injury. Then you will realize that Carson Palmer won't let this team fail again.
Ken Daube is a senior columnist for TalentedMrRoto.com and a fantasy football expert for ESPN.com. You can e-mail him at KenDaube@TalentedMrRoto.com.



