This is Schaub's year to stay healthy
Matt Schaub has already proved he can put up statistics fantasy owners love. What he hasn't been able to do is stay on the field long enough to help fantasy owners win championships. This is the year he does both.
The pieces are certainly in place for Schaub and the Houston Texans to take that next step and contend for a playoff spot, with a defense that seems to get a little better each year, and an offense that scored 27 or more points eight times. Offensively, Steve Slaton comes off a big rookie season, and Andre Johnson is one of the best wide receivers in the game. Now it's time for Schaub to stay injury-free. He has missed 10 games the past two seasons, split evenly from 2007 and 2008. It's not easy to rely on someone like this in fantasy, but consider the upside.
Along with Johnson, who is worthy of late-first-round consideration in many leagues, Kevin Walter and Slaton are strong receivers who can make things happen after the catch, and Schaub has been among the best quarterbacks in the NFL in yards per attempt the past two seasons. In 2008 he averaged eight yards per attempt, second only to the Chargers' Philip Rivers. Schaub threw for 3,000 yards in only 11 games, finishing fourth in the league in passing yards per game, and he added 15 touchdown passes. Five times he reached 21 or more fantasy points in standard leagues. The numbers are there.
While some view Schaub as injury-prone, the fact is that players -- especially quarterbacks -- get hurt from time to time, and it's not always their fault. See Brady, Tom. Four of the games Schaub missed last season came due to a torn MCL knee ligament on a dirty hit by the Vikings' Jared Allen, which later resulted in the defensive end being fined $50,000. It wasn't the first time Schaub fell victim to a punishable hit. In 2007 he missed games due to a non-throwing shoulder problem. Certainly Peyton Manning has been hit hard from time to time and he doesn't miss games, so it's also up to Schaub to avoid situations in which he can get hurt. It would also be nice if opponents wouldn't take liberties with his knees.
When it comes to running backs with tons of carries, like Clinton Portis and most recently Michael Turner, predicting injury makes sense. There's the wear and tear factor. The same doesn't hold true of quarterbacks. It's not like their throwing arms run out of gas like pitchers in baseball. Schaub produced a 20-point fantasy effort in nearly half his games a year ago, the same number as Jay Cutler, Kurt Warner and Tony Romo. Matt Ryan did it once. Sure, he was a rookie and should continue to emerge as a top-10 fantasy quarterback, but Schaub has already proved he's at that level statistically. Now he just needs to stay on the field.
Ryan's star is on the rise
Matt Ryan stepped out of nowhere to finish 15th in fantasy points among quarterbacks in his rookie season of 2008, and has had the whole offseason to refine himself in an offense that won't undergo changes … oh, and his team added arguably the best pass-catching tight end of this era.
Really, I could write a whole column about the reasons I don't like Matt Schaub. In fact, I think I will. But I'll save that for the Texans' edition of our 32 Questions series. Instead, this one is about my affinity for a certain Heisman Trophy candidate turned solid NFL quarterback.
Ryan had a solid 2008 season -- 16 touchdown passes (and one rushing score), only 11 picks, 3,440 yards -- which is amazing, considering his rookie status. And many quarterbacks in recent history who started regularly as rookies -- Peyton Manning, Eli Manning, Donovan McNabb, even Drew Bledsoe -- made their biggest strides between their first and second seasons.
Is there any plausible reason Matt Ryan, who has been successful at every stop along his path, can't be Carson Palmer? Especially because Ryan's primary flaws last year were rookie deficiencies. He didn't throw the ball up for grabs, but he was confused by zone-coverage defenses, at least the decent ones (the Bucs' zone was the most challenging for him). And he noticeably wore down late in the season once he reached the renowned "rookie wall." In fact, he averaged 226.2 yards and threw 14 touchdowns and seven picks his first 13 games of the 2008 season, and 166.7 yards, with two TDs and four INTs his last three games. These two issues should be greatly improved after an entire offseason of learning and conditioning under an NFL team's tutelage.
So the numbers will be there, but that's not what separates him from Schaub. Health is. Schaub's lack of durability is well-known; he has missed 10 games over the past two seasons (his only two seasons as a starter). Meanwhile, Ryan played every game last season. Not just that, but he played every quarter of every game last season; his backup didn't throw a single pass.
And there's a reason for that. His line is good, his backfield runners grade out as good pass blockers and Ryan has a tremendous feel in the pocket. He was sacked just 17 times in 16 games. Meanwhile, Schaub's line was often porous, his primary back is diminutive and not as good a pass blocker, and he was sacked 23 times in 11 games (and hit quite a few more times on plays he was able to get off the pass). When it comes to their pocket presence and elusiveness, it's no contest. Ryan is already much better.
To get either quarterback, you'd have to draft them as a starter. Call me conservative, but I'd rather have the durable quarterback with the much better running game and the more complete receiving corps supporting him than the injury-prone quarterback who takes a ton of hits and has fewer weapons to work with.
