November 5, 2008, 4:22 PM

Midseason Mock Draft: Brees, Warner earn top-20 respect

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Cockcroft By Tristan H. Cockcroft
ESPN.com
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The NFL officially reached its midpoint in Week 9; however, the most important time of the fantasy football season is yet to come.

What better way to get you in gear for the upcoming playoffs than with a midseason draft?

We sat a group of 10 of our experts down, handed them the same set of ESPN standard league rules we used in the preseason, and asked them to pick a roster for the eight weeks still to come. Participating were ESPN fantasy analysts Christopher Harris, Eric Karabell, AJ Mass and Jim McCormick, fantasy editors James Quintong, Nate Ravitz and Brendan Roberts, Dave Hunter and Shawn Cwalinski from The Answer Guys, and yours truly.

Mulling trade possibilities with your league's deadline rapidly approaching? Wondering about the strength of your roster heading into the stretch run? The results below should help give you a sense of player value for both purposes.

Of course -- and here's the fun part -- every expert's opinion on a player is different. For that reason, I'll take a look at some of the good, bad and more notable picks of our draft, including some of the reasoning behind them from our experts. In addition, each owner was asked for one pick stolen right out from under him; I've listed each of those "lament" picks beneath the rounds in which they happened.

10-Team Mock Draft held Nov. 3 using ESPN standard scoring
ROUND 1
Pick Overall By Player
1 1 Harris Adrian Peterson, RB, Min
2 2 Hunter LaDainian Tomlinson, RB, SD
3 3 Roberts Clinton Portis, RB, Was
4 4 McCormick Brian Westbrook, RB, Phi
5 5 Mass Drew Brees, QB, NO
6 6 Karabell Marion Barber, RB, Dal
7 7 Cockcroft Frank Gore, RB, SF
8 8 Quintong Michael Turner, RB, Atl
9 9 Cwalinski Steven Jackson, RB, StL
10 10 Ravitz Matt Forte, RB, Chi

Is there such a thing as a bad first-round pick, especially in a midseason draft, when we already know what we can expect out of the game's elite? I'd argue no, although Ravitz's picks at Nos. 10 (and 11) raised some eyebrows at the draft table; remember, Forte went 67th overall in average ESPN drafts in the preseason, Johnson 130th. Of course, in terms of to-date fantasy production, Johnson ranks 10th and Forte 11th. Barring either wearing down from his rookie-year workload -- Forte is on pace for 338 carries, Johnson 292 -- they might have actually been picked just right.

"Going running back/running back in the No. 10 spot is unusual for me, but I felt like the receivers I liked would be there in Rounds 3 and 4, a decision that bore fruit when Steve Smith and Terrell Owens were there the next time around," said Ravitz. "As for Forte and Johnson, I'll accept the risk that they hit the rookie wall over the risk of someone like Joseph Addai or Steven Jackson continuing to shed limbs."

Quintong's lament: "I was really hoping for Gore or Barber to fall to me, which I guess was wishful thinking, and so I was left in a lurch trying to figure out who I wanted from the next-tier running backs who were either (A) good but still a tad unproven, or (B) good but slightly disappointing."

ROUND 2
Pick Overall By Player
1 11 Ravitz Chris Johnson, RB, Ten
2 12 Cwalinski Brandon Jacobs, RB, NYG
3 13 Quintong Kurt Warner, QB, Ari
4 14 Cockcroft Marshawn Lynch, RB, Buf
5 15 Karabell Steve Slaton, RB, Hou
6 16 Mass Maurice Jones-Drew, RB, Jac
7 17 McCormick Ronnie Brown, RB, Mia
8 18 Roberts Ryan Grant, RB, GB
9 19 Hunter Joseph Addai, RB, Ind
10 20 Harris Jamal Lewis, RB, Cle

The good: Brown at No. 17 could be a steal, since he's already eighth in fantasy points among running backs, despite the Dolphins doing a fine job keeping his workload in check in his first season coming off knee surgery.

The bad: Bust as he has been, Grant remained a second-round pick in our redraft, only two spots behind where he was selected on average in the preseason. That's despite his having by far the fewest fantasy points of any running back with at least 120 touches; his 56 points (on 161 touches) significantly trailed Julius Jones' 65 (on 124).

"Why has he been a bust?" said Roberts, still faithful to Grant. "Is it because of pure ineffectiveness or a loss of a starting job ... or is it because of an injury? Grant battled a hamstring injury the first month of the season and was given a few reps off in practice and a lighter workload in games because of it. But a 33-carry workload in Week 6 pretty much wiped that slate clean, and he had 90 yards in that game, 105 yards in Week 7 and 86 yards in 20 carries against arguably the league's best defense in Week 9. In a sense, I like him even more in the second half because his workload was lightened in the first half."

The questionable? Our first undrafted-in-the-preseason player went No. 15, as Slaton went to Karabell, ahead of preseason top-25 picks Addai, Jones-Drew and Lewis. Of course, through nine weeks, Slaton had 51 more fantasy points than Addai, 15 more than Jones-Drew and 26 more than Lewis. How many people saw that coming?

"I know it sounds odd, but I do think he's safer than those other guys," said Karabell. "Slaton has been very nearly a top-10 running back this season; he's catching passes and scoring touchdowns, and with a low workload. As for Ahman Green, I just have to laugh. He can't stay on the field."

McCormick's lament: "AJ took Edwards just before I landed Ward. I really liked where Braylon went given that, despite the tough schedule, I believe he'll finish with some really strong outings."

Mass' lament: "When Karabell picked Slaton, I wasn't happy. I had taken my quarterback in Round 1 and I thought there was a definite drop-off to my pick of Jones-Drew, whose value is only worthy of the No. 16 spot because of his receiving yards."

Harris' lament: "I was hoping Brown would fall to me in the second round -- he only came within three spots. He has a very easy schedule in the fantasy playoffs [at St. Louis, at Buffalo, versus San Francisco, at Kansas City] and could wind up being a stud for his teams."

ROUND 3
Pick Overall By Player
1 21 Harris Andre Johnson, WR, Hou
2 22 Hunter Jay Cutler, QB, Den
3 23 Roberts Brandon Marshall, WR, Den
4 24 McCormick Anquan Boldin, WR, Ari
5 25 Mass Tim Hightower, RB, Ari
6 26 Karabell Larry Fitzgerald, WR, Ari
7 27 Cockcroft Reggie Wayne, WR, Ind
8 28 Quintong Thomas Jones, RB, NYJ
9 29 Cwalinski Calvin Johnson, WR, Det
10 30 Ravitz Steve Smith, WR, Car

The good: Despite missing two games, Boldin leads the NFL with eight touchdown receptions, a fact some fantasy owners might not yet realize. Apparently he does have the stronger chemistry with Warner.

The bad: Apparently one week was all Mass needed to make a determination on the Cardinals' starting running back. He picked Hightower at No. 25 overall, nearly 100 picks ahead of the man he replaced in the lineup, Edgerrin James, meaning the group pretty much agreed with him at least that James' time as a fantasy factor has passed. Might it not have been too generous a pick for Hightower himself, though?

"With 18 running backs already selected, and with 11 picks before things got back to me, I definitely wanted to get a No. 1 running back here if I could," said Mass. "It looks like Hightower is going to be the main man in Arizona. Even if we haven't seen the last of Edgerrin James, we know Tim's the man at the goal line, so it's not a complete roll of the dice even if he does remain in a platoon. The upside was too good to wait on."

The questionable? James Quintong's pick of Thomas Jones was another bold call, if you're in agreement with me that he's probably going to slow down the further he gets from the bye week, and therefore the more worn-down his legs get. Remember, Jones is 30 years old, and his legs have made 1,054 carries since the beginning of the 2005 season.

"I was pretty set on getting a running back in that round and liked him a lot, although in hindsight, I probably could've gotten a Steve Smith or Calvin Johnson instead and still gotten Jones in the fourth round," said Quintong.

Cwalinski's lament: "I was all set to pick Jones to go with my Jackson/Jacobs combo, but no, Quintong had to take him." So, James, it sounds like you made the right move picking Jones now instead of waiting!

ROUND 4
Pick Overall By Player
1 31 Ravitz Terrell Owens, WR, Dal
2 32 Cwalinski Marques Colston, WR, NO
3 33 Quintong Greg Jennings, WR, GB
4 34 Cockcroft Roddy White, WR, Atl
5 35 Karabell LenDale White, RB, Ten
6 36 Mass Chad Johnson, WR, Cin
7 37 McCormick Aaron Rodgers, QB, GB
8 38 Roberts Earnest Graham, RB, TB
9 39 Hunter Lee Evans, WR, Buf
10 40 Harris Randy Moss, WR, NE

The good: Not to toot my own horn, but White ranks third among wide receivers in fantasy points, yet he was the 11th one picked in the redraft.

The bad: In another bold -- and perhaps reactionary -- move by Mass, he scooped up Johnson as the 12th wide receiver off the board, in spite of "Ocho Cinco's" No. 35 ranking at his position in terms of to-date fantasy points. A two-touchdown Week 9 for Johnson might have earned Mass' favor, but the Bengal goes on bye in Week 10, then gets the Eagles, Steelers, Ravens, Colts and Redskins the next five weeks after that.

"I don't worry about his schedule," said Mass. "Either Seņor 85 will perform at the level we finally saw this past week, or he won't. The fact that I saw a glimmer of hope was enough for me to grab him here, and if I'm wrong, the waiver wire is always full of competent wide receivers in a 10-team league."

The questionable? Speaking of underperforming wide receivers, Harris nabbed Moss, on pace for eight touchdowns coming off a record-setting campaign of 23.

"The Colts game shouldn't be held entirely against Moss," said Harris. "That's a zone team that basically said, 'Beat us with anything but Moss' -- and the Pats did. Considering Moss was the first receiver taken in most drafts to begin the year, and he's the 18th-highest-scoring wide receiver in our standard game and I got him as the No. 14 wideout in the redraft, I think that's a great value, even without Tom Brady. Uh, and yeah, you took Plaxico '32nd scorer among receivers' Burress seven picks later."

Hunter's lament: "Before I grabbed Evans, I was really hoping White would slip to me."

ROUND 5
Pick Overall By Player
1 41 Harris Donovan McNabb, QB, Phi
2 42 Hunter Wes Welker, WR, NE
3 43 Roberts Peyton Manning, QB, Ind
4 44 McCormick T.J. Houshmandzadeh, WR, Cin
5 45 Mass Ray Rice, RB, Bal
6 46 Karabell Philip Rivers, QB, SD
7 47 Cockcroft Plaxico Burress, WR, NYG
8 48 Quintong Santana Moss, WR, Was
9 49 Cwalinski DeAngelo Williams, RB, Car
10 50 Ravitz Antonio Gates, TE, SD

The good: Manning became the sixth quarterback off the board -- he's seventh at the position in fantasy points in a "down" year -- and be aware among his second-half opponents are the Texans (Week 11), Chargers (12), Bengals (14) and Lions (15).

The bad: Amazingly, Houshmandzadeh went eight picks after teammate Chad Johnson, despite boasting 17 more fantasy points to date. Not that either one is an especially strong choice as a No. 2 fantasy receiver, not with Carson Palmer seemingly done for the season.

"I was considering both Reggie Bush and Braylon Edwards here, but went with T.J. because of his consistent, albeit mediocre, production," said McCormick. "While I like what Moss has done this year, I feel his boom-or-bust tendencies could hurt me down the line, while T.J. is a lock every week for 6-to-8 catches. I may have played it too safe here."

Karabell's lament: "I really wanted Manning and just missed. But Rivers isn't a bad replacement."

ROUND 6
Pick Overall By Player
1 51 Ravitz Tony Romo, QB, Dal
2 52 Cwalinski Jason Witten, TE, Dal
3 53 Quintong Willie Parker, RB, Pit
4 54 Cockcroft Reggie Bush, RB, NO
5 55 Karabell Laveranues Coles, WR, NYJ
6 56 Mass Braylon Edwards, WR, Cle
7 57 McCormick Hines Ward, WR, Pit
8 58 Roberts Bernard Berrian, WR, Min
9 59 Hunter Larry Johnson, RB, KC
10 60 Harris Dwayne Bowe, WR, KC

The good: Edwards -- the No. 20 pick in preseason drafts -- slid into the sixth round! Only three other players picked among the top 25 in the preseason lasted longer -- Larry Johnson and Willis McGahee and, of course, Tom Brady, who went undrafted -- yet Edwards has 50 fantasy points in his past five games.

The questionable? We don't even know whether Johnson will play another game this season -- though all bets are that he will -- and he has been nothing but inconsistent all season. Still, Hunter tabbed him for his flex spot, a bold move for a guy will sit out Week 10 at the bare minimum.

"If Johnson can dodge further suspension, I'll be able to take advantage of his excellent schedule after Week 12," said Hunter. "With running backs going early and often, I really didn't like what was remaining, so I decided to go with the ultimate high-risk, high-reward option in L.J."

Karabell's lament: "I was all set to take Bush, before some annoying guy snapped him up. I was just trying for value at that point."

Roberts' lament: "I seriously considered taking Johnson instead of Berrian. When it came down to it, I just couldn't justify taking another running back over a receiver, even though I felt he was an incredible bargain there. I decided I'd wait five picks to take him, and Hunter took him with the next pick. Immediately had that remorseful feeling."

ROUND 7
Pick Overall By Player
1 61 Harris Jonathan Stewart, RB, Car
2 62 Hunter Derrick Mason, WR, Bal
3 63 Roberts Fred Taylor, RB, Jac
4 64 McCormick Willis McGahee, RB, Bal
5 65 Mass Titans D/ST
6 66 Karabell Torry Holt, WR, StL
7 67 Cockcroft Eli Manning, QB, NYG
8 68 Quintong Jerricho Cotchery, WR, NYJ
9 69 Cwalinski Matt Schaub, QB, Hou
10 70 Ravitz Santonio Holmes, WR, Pit

The good: Stewart has Chris Johnson/Matt Forte-like potential and a fabulous schedule, including the Raiders, Lions, Falcons, Packers and Broncos the next six weeks. If not for the presence of DeAngelo Williams, I could have seen Stewart going at least two rounds sooner. If he had lasted, he would've been my pick this round.

The bad: Timing is everything, as it was announced shortly after our redraft that Matt Schaub would miss at least a month with a torn medial collateral ligament. Can't hold that against Cwalinski, though might the seventh round have been a tad high anyway?

"Schaub was just a plain bad pick, though I was not certain he would miss Week 10 when I picked him," said Cwalinski. "With Schaub out for a month, he should not have been drafted at all. Even if he were playing, the pick was pretty bad considering the Texans' remaining schedule."

The questionable? I'm of the opinion that defenses are easier to pick in-season, since we've got better data by which to measure them. That helps explain Mass' pick of the Titans, though it was indeed another pick that raised eyebrows.

"In a regular draft scenario, I'd never take a defense this early, because there are far too many unknowns over a long season, and defenses can totally underperform and disappoint you -- San Diego Chargers, anyone?" said Mass. "But we've seen far too much of a sample size for me to believe the Titans defense will remain anything but solid."

ROUND 8
Pick Overall By Player
1 71 Ravitz Kevin Smith, RB, Det
2 72 Cwalinski Cedric Benson, RB, Cin
3 73 Quintong Tony Gonzalez, TE, KC
4 74 Cockcroft DeSean Jackson, WR, Phi
5 75 Karabell Eddie Royal, WR, Den
6 76 Mass Antonio Bryant, WR, TB
7 77 McCormick Owen Daniels, TE, Hou
8 78 Roberts Kellen Winslow, TE, Cle
9 79 Hunter Jamaal Charles, RB, KC
10 80 Harris Dallas Clark, TE, Ind

The good ... coincidentally also Cockcroft's lament: "Quintong swiped Gonzalez right out from under me, and I didn't like any of the alternatives at tight end nearly as much there. Then Daniels, Winslow and Clark went soon thereafter, forcing me to address the position the very next round."

The bad: Normally the idea of drafting a starting running back in the eighth round might seem appealing, but not when that starter is Cedric Benson. Through three starts he's averaging a pedestrian 4.0 yards per carry with one score.

"Weeks 14, 16 and 17 are what I saw when I drafted Benson," said Cwalinski. "The Bengals face the team allowing the most fantasy points to running backs -- the Chiefs --- the fourth-most fantasy points to running backs -- the Colts -- and the Browns in the final four weeks of the season. I needed some coverage for Brandon Jacobs, who might not be used much the last couple of weeks. I am pretty sure the Bengals will not be resting Benson at the end of the season."

Ravitz's lament: "I seriously considered drafting Benson with the pick that ended up being Smith. I think it was my dislike of young Cedric more than any particular fantasy projection that influenced that pick, so I chuckled when Shawn took him one pick later."

ROUND 9
Pick Overall By Player
1 81 Harris Giants D/ST
2 82 Hunter Tony Scheffler, TE, Den
3 83 Roberts Donald Driver, WR, GB
4 84 McCormick Sammy Morris, RB, NE
5 85 Mass Fred Jackson, RB, Buf
6 86 Karabell Ryan Torain, RB, Den
7 87 Cockcroft Chris Cooley, TE, Was
8 88 Quintong Jake Delhomme, QB, Car
9 89 Cwalinski Chris Chambers, WR, SD
10 90 Ravitz Darren McFadden, RB, Oak

The good: Again, timing is everything, as it was revealed only hours after the draft that Michael Pittman was out for the season, boosting Torain's stock substantially.

"This draft took place before we knew Michael Pittman was out for the season, negating my 10th-rounder, but making Torain, my ninth rounder, look much smarter," said Karabell. "I do have doubts about him, and haven't been shy about it, but at that point of the draft, to get a potential starter, even I had to act."

The bad: Morris hasn't even toed the field in three weeks, and when he returns, he has Kevin Faulk, BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Heath Evans, (maybe) LaMont Jordan and, heck, probably even Leonard Russell to contend with for carries. Eerie: Morris' first six games' output were remarkably similar to the six games he played before getting hurt in 2007, and once he got hurt, he didn't return to the field again.

"I figured that Morris is New England's only proven between-the-tackles back and that in the late-season, bad-weather division games, he could be a nice option to plug in at the flex," said McCormick. "If I get four solid games from him then I feel my investment panned out. Our own Stephania Bell said recently that missing merely another week or two is realistic for Morris, a reasonable wait given where I landed him."

Quintong's lament: "Missing on McFadden -- after reaching a bit on Delhomme -- was one I regretted because of the upside concerns."

Cwalinski's lament: "Quintong grabbed Jake Delhomme out from underneath me, just like he did with Thomas Jones in Round 3!"

ROUND 10
Pick Overall By Player
1 91 Ravitz Kevin Curtis, WR, Phi
2 92 Cwalinski David Garrard, QB, Jac
3 93 Quintong Le'Ron McClain, RB, Bal
4 94 Cockcroft Ben Roethlisberger, QB, Pit
5 95 Karabell Michael Pittman, RB, Den
6 96 Mass Deuce McAllister, RB, NO
7 97 McCormick Vincent Jackson, WR, SD
8 98 Roberts Justin Fargas, RB, Oak
9 99 Hunter BenJarvus Green-Ellis, RB, NE
10 100 Harris Donnie Avery, WR, StL

The good: Fargas is shaping up as Oakland's long-range starter, with Darren McFadden battling turf toe, and there are some appealing matchups in his future. There are weaker choices to roll out of your flex spot each week.

The bad: Is McClain even No. 2 in his own backfield? Baltimore's is practically impossible to read, with McClain, Willis McGahee and Ray Rice duking it out for touches. Boy, how fantasy owners hate those committees!

"McClain is my fourth running back, so it's not like I'm hitching my wagon to him," said Quintong. "I still think the Ravens will use him in goal-line situations, and have Willis McGahee and Ray Rice fight it out for the feature-back carries. I'll take a touchdown vulture as a fourth running back."

ROUND 11
Pick Overall By Player
1 101 Harris Matt Ryan, QB, Atl
2 102 Hunter Muhsin Muhammad, WR, Car
3 103 Roberts Ravens D/ST
4 104 McCormick Eagles D/ST
5 105 Mass Greg Camarillo, WR, Mia
6 106 Karabell Ted Ginn Jr., WR, Mia
7 107 Cockcroft Steelers D/ST
8 108 Quintong Anthony Gonzalez, WR, Ind
9 109 Cwalinski Julius Jones, RB, Sea
10 110 Ravitz Brett Favre, QB, NYJ
ROUND 12
Pick Overall By Player
1 111 Ravitz Dominic Rhodes, RB, Ind
2 112 Cwalinski Bears D/ST
3 113 Quintong Felix Jones, RB, Dal
4 114 Cockcroft Kevin Walter, WR, Hou
5 115 Karabell Visanthe Shiancoe, TE, Min
6 116 Mass Bo Scaife, TE, Ten
7 117 McCormick Correll Buckhalter, RB, Phi
8 118 Roberts Marvin Harrison, WR, Ind
9 119 Hunter Rashied Davis, WR ,Chi
10 120 Harris Roy E. Williams, WR, Dal
ROUND 13
Pick Overall By Player
1 121 Harris Mewelde Moore, RB, Pit
2 122 Hunter Edgerrin James, RB, Ari
3 123 Roberts Jason Campbell, QB, Was
4 124 McCormick Lance Moore, WR, NO
5 125 Mass Leon Washington, RB, NYJ
6 126 Karabell Buccaneers D/ST
7 127 Cockcroft Steve Breaston, WR, Ari
8 128 Quintong Packers D/ST
9 129 Cwalinski Reggie Brown, WR, Phi
10 130 Ravitz Devin Hester, WR, Chi
ROUND 14
Pick Overall By Player
1 131 Ravitz Derrick Ward, RB, NYG
2 132 Cwalinski Antwaan Randle El, WR, Was
3 133 Quintong Jerious Norwood, RB, Atl
4 134 Cockcroft Darren Sproles, RB, SD
5 135 Karabell Chad Pennington, QB, Mia
6 136 Mass Matt Jones, WR, Jac
7 137 McCormick Greg Olsen, TE, Chi
8 138 Roberts Bobby Engram, WR, Sea
9 139 Hunter Jeff Garcia, QB, TB
10 140 Harris Kevin Faulk, RB, NE
ROUND 15
Pick Overall By Player
1 141 Harris Jason Elam, K, Atl
2 142 Hunter Panthers D/ST
3 143 Roberts Vikings D/ST
4 144 McCormick Marc Bulger, QB, StL
5 145 Mass Shaun McDonald, WR, Det
6 146 Karabell Joey Galloway, WR, TB
7 147 Cockcroft Josh Morgan, WR, SF
8 148 Quintong Mike Furrey, WR, Det
9 149 Cwalinski Jeremy Shockey, TE, NO
10 150 Ravitz Matt Bryant, K, TB
ROUND 16
Pick Overall By Player
1 151 Ravitz Jets D/ST
2 152 Cwalinski Matt Prater, K, Den
3 153 Quintong Ryan Longwell, K, Min
4 154 Cockcroft John Carney, K, KC
5 155 Karabell John Kasay, K, Car
6 156 Mass Josh Scobee, K, Jac
7 157 McCormick Robbie Gould, K, Chi
8 158 Roberts Stephen Gostkowski, K, NE
9 159 Hunter Nate Kaeding, K, SD
10 160 Harris Chester Taylor, RB, Min

Rounds 11-16

The good: Anthony Gonzalez in the 11th round is quite the sleeper play, with the Colts facing a favorable Weeks 11-15 schedule and Marvin Harrison showing marked signs of decline of late. Not that Harrison represents a poor choice in his own right; going one round after Gonzalez he's a decent value selection. … Jason Campbell is tied for eighth in fantasy points among quarterbacks, and look at those upcoming matchups: Cowboys (Week 11), Seahawks (12), Bengals (15), 49ers (17). … Matt Jones has the threat of a three-game suspension looming, though that still affords him five games down the stretch. No reason he can't be a useful No. 3/flex option in your fantasy playoffs.

The bad: Kevin Walter might have a tough time doing anything fantasy-relevant in upcoming matchups against the Ravens, Colts, Titans and Bears. … Rashied Davis might be hurt by the installation of Rex Grossman as Chicago's starter. He's depth fodder at best. … A kicker in Round 15? Really? Guess it makes sense if you're concerned about being stuck with the 10th kicker on your draft board, but to be fair, seven fantasy points separate the Nos. 1 and 10 kickers to date. That's less than a point per week. As we continue to stress: final round, people, final round, when drafting your kicker.

Tristan H. Cockcroft is a fantasy baseball, football and hockey analyst for ESPN.com. You can e-mail him here.