32 Questions: Will Calvin Johnson be a breakout receiver?
There's a common -- and I'd say misguided -- thought that it takes a wide receiver two full years before he gets fully acclimated to NFL competition.
Truth is, sometimes it can take as little as one season (sometimes less!).
Let the 2007 season serve as your example. Last year, sophomores Marques Colston, Santonio Holmes, Greg Jennings and Brandon Marshall broke out in a big way -- well, Colston merely built upon a strong rookie year -- each of them ranking among the top 20 at his position in terms of fantasy points.
And it's not just a one-year anomaly, either. Those of you who read my "Myth of the third-year wide receiver" column probably already know this, but I'll repeat: It's the second-year receivers who experience the biggest statistical boost: more than a 60 percent boost in receiving yards and nearly a 75 percent increase in touchdowns.
Calvin Johnson, simply put, is an excellent example of why the historical evidence trends toward the Year 2 receiver being the one to get. He's a special talent, much the way Colston, Holmes, Jennings and Marshall were a year ago. In fact, I think he's significantly better right now than any of them were one year ago today.
Yes, I think his potential -- 2008 potential -- is that great.
Think back 16 months, to the 2007 NFL Draft. Johnson went No. 2 overall, only the fifth receiver in the history of the draft to be picked at least that high. At the time scouts raved about his talent, comparing him to Randy Moss, and the fantasy world was abuzz about his potential. He was routinely picked among the top 20 players at his position in 2007, an awfully generous draft position for a player with no NFL experience.
Johnson would wind up a disappointment in his first season, catching 48 of 95 passes thrown his way for 756 yards and four scores, underwhelming numbers indeed. He saw more limited time than expected; a lack of knowledge of the playbook was sometimes the explanation. The truth, which came out after the season, was that Johnson was plagued by a back problem, one that apparently became so bad he admitted in April he needed medication merely to make it through the final three months of the year. That also limited his mid-week practice time, which is a real drawback for a player still learning the offense.
In spite of that, if you watched Johnson play, surely you saw the brief glimpses of "Moss-like" potential. He made the occasional highlight-reel catch, and in the end finished with a 15.8 yards-per-reception average, good for 10th in the league. Moss himself ranked lower in the category, and he enjoyed one of the greatest seasons in fantasy history!
Many might be skeptical about the Lions' offense with coordinator Mike Martz now in San Francisco. That's actually a good thing; Martz's offense was far too one-dimensional, predictable and burdensome on quarterback Jon Kitna. Not that this is about to turn into a run-based offense, not with a rookie in Kevin Smith the team's likely go-to back. There'll still be a healthy dose of throws in Detroit, just maybe not the close-to-600 we saw in each of the past two seasons. Again, it's a good thing.
After all, it's hard to imagine Johnson getting as few as 95 targets this season. Did you know Shaun McDonald actually led this team with 126? Mike Furrey, who had an entirely forgettable fantasy season, finished five targets short of Johnson (90). It makes sense; those two were slot receivers, and Martz's system benefits the slot receivers. Under Jim Colletto, the new offensive coordinator, Johnson and Roy Williams should be better utilized.
They'll need to be, considering the Lions' defense isn't likely to be much better than the one that took the field last season. Expect this team to find itself trailing on the scoreboard, often by a substantial amount, forcing them to the air. Colletto can preach a return to basics all he wants, but that just means that he won't adopt Martz's game plan of running the ball fewer than 10 times per contest. This team is going to need to throw. A lot.
Johnson also has one more rather important thing going for him: A spectacular preseason.
Reports on him from offseason workouts were nothing short of glowing, with some indicating he looked every bit as good as he did in scoring in back-to-back games to begin his NFL career. Things have gotten only better from there. In the preseason opener he caught four passes for 78 yards, battling Giants first-stringers. He'd follow that up with three more catches for 76 yards and a score this past Sunday. That's a 22.0 yards-per-carry average -- unsustainable, probably, but an encouraging sign nonetheless.
As always, the danger is Johnson being overvalued, as it might be 2009 before we see him at Pro Bowl status. He's not a top-10 receiver, not yet, but has definite potential for top-20 status, which is a solid No. 2 -- what he was considered heading into 2007.
That's still very much a bust-out candidate.
Tristan H. Cockcroft covers fantasy sports for ESPN.com. You can e-mail him here.
