32 Questions: Is Reggie Bush a third-year breakout or bust?
Hi, I'm your mealymouthed fantasy football reporter, and in response to the question of whether Reggie Bush will be a third-year breakout or a fantasy bust, I'm going to split the baby in half and declare: neither.
First off, even if he approximates his 2007 numbers (581 yards rushing, 417 yards receiving, six touchdowns in 12 games), Bush won't fully be a "bust," simply because expectations for him are so much lower than they were last season. Scroll back 365 days, and the world was aflutter about Reggie Bush. He was coming off an 88-catch rookie season in which he'd scored eight times and occasionally looked like a Barry-Sanders-esque game-breaker. He and Deuce McAllister each laid claim to being selected in, at worst, the top three rounds of most fantasy drafts (with Bush usually going in the first).
By now we've seen a better glimpse of what Bush really is: a low yards-per-carry rusher with explosiveness, but someone against whom defenses can scheme. His yards-per-reception average declined from 8.4 when he was a surprise to the league in '06 to just 5.7 last season, which reflects the intelligence of NFL defenses. No longer was Bush allowed to roam in the slot or even out wide without someone chucking him at the snap, and any time he ran from the backfield into the flat, a defender was right on him. I haven't seen anyone ranking Bush in their first round for fantasy drafts this season, and at ESPN.com we have him ranked as the 19th-best running back, and in my own personal rankings, I've got him 18th. That makes him a risky No. 2 RB in a 10-team league; it's tough to call a guy at that level a bust.
The fact is, however, that I don't think Bush is suddenly going to ascend to fantasy deity-hood, either. He was at his best when McAllister was thumping up the middle, softening defenses, forcing safeties to play up. While McAllister has made strides in his return from torn-knee ligaments and microfracture surgery, I still have a hard time believing he's going to make it through a full season of pounding, and having seen Pierre Thomas run in the preseason, I don't believe he's going to do much of a 2006 Deuce impression. In other words: I think that as in much of 2007, Bush is going to have to carry most of the mail for the Saints. I still predict he'll catch a ton of passes, and there's no question that an explosive downfield passing offense -- keyed by Drew Brees, Marques Colston, Jeremy Shockey and all those other so-so receivers duking it out for playing time -- will be Bush's best friend. But let's face it: this is a guy who even in his terrific rookie season averaged just 3.6 yards per carry, and in '07 managed just 3.7.
NFC South blog
ESPN.com's Pat Yasinskas writes about all things NFC South in his division blog.
The Saints featured the second-most pass-oriented offense in the NFL last season, behind only the Martz-led Lions. They only rushed it on 37.5 percent of their offensive snaps. True, a lot of those throws were to Bush (his 98 targets were second in the league, behind only Brian Westbrook), so it's not like No. 25 will get completely shut out just because New Orleans likes to air it out. But Bush averaged only 13 carries per game in '07. Sure, I believe we're talking about a high-upside player who, some weeks, will be incredibly entertaining to own because he'll break a screen and take it to the house. But I no longer think Bush will be a true week-to-week fantasy star, simply because of what he isn't. We're simply not talking about a between-the-tackles, give-it-to-him-until-he-breaks-one-big sort of back.
Christopher Harris is a fantasy baseball, football and racing analyst for ESPN.com. He is a six-time Fantasy Sports Writing Association award winner across all three of those sports. You can e-mail him here.
