October 12, 2007, 11:58 AM

The Breakdown: Week 6

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Harris By Christopher Harris
ESPN.com
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Now here are two offensive lines that make the cast of "Prison Break" look healthy and well-adjusted. The Ravens' Jonathan Ogden is out, and his replacement, Adam Terry, probably won't play Sunday, meaning rookie Jared Gaither will get his first start. Meanwhile, Orlando Pace, Todd Steussie, Mark Setterstrom and Adam Goldberg are all on IR for the Rams. Normally you can count on St. Louis to move the ball through the air, but it's hard to imagine Gus Frerotte getting enough time to do that Sunday.

Fantasy Up: Willis McGahee was solid against San Francisco because Willis McGahee is solid, period. He's not a touchdown-maker, but he has become a good inside runner who rarely gets tackled on first contact. After giving it to him just 14 times against Cleveland, the Ravens let McGahee carry 22 times last week, which is a good sign. The scores might never come in bunches, but McGahee is still a comfort to own. … And then there was one. Torry Holt is the only Rams' option I ranked as a fantasy starter this week, and even he had to sit out practice with a swollen knee. He'll get open against the Ravens' corners, though. … Derrick Mason caught 11 passes last week, a couple of which were spectacular grabs late in the game. He's back to being the top fantasy receiving option in Baltimore, mostly because Steve McNair simply can't bring himself to throw it downfield. … Todd Heap practiced early in the week, but the Ravens still seem unsure if he'll play. Quinn Sypniewski would go again in his place, if he doesn't.

Fantasy Down: Somehow McNair threw it 43 times last week and netted only 214 yards. Ugly. Baltimore has zero touchdowns in its last 13 series, a span of 88 plays. They have just five offensive touchdowns all year. As long as McNair is in there, both he and Mark Clayton are useless. … Brian Leonard played very well against Arizona last week, although the Rams stopped running in the second half. Steven Jackson isn't close to returning, and Leonard will have much better matchups in future weeks than he does against the Ravens. … Frerotte looked OK, until he threw two late picks that killed the Rams. I think he'll have receivers open this week. The question is how much time his makeshift O-line will give him.


The depleted Bears secondary will continue to give opportunities to opposing air attacks. Danieal Manning, in particular, was brutal against Green Bay, whiffing while trying to bump Greg Jennings, who scored a touchdown. But one wonders if Minny can get its passing game together enough to take advantage. Sidney Rice has shown flashes -- he was everywhere against the Packers in Week 4 -- and deserves our attention, but you probably can't start him unless you're in serious bye-week trouble.

Fantasy Up: Here's hoping Adrian Peterson used his bye week to learn pass protections. The rookie was on the field for only 37 percent of the Vikes' plays in Week 4, so while the numbers (12 carries, 112 yards) looked good, warning signs abound. Things would work out so much better for Minny (and A.P. owners) if Chester Taylor returned to his third-down role. … Brian Griese is a borderline starter. You can't run on Minnesota, and Griese's dink-and-dunk style lulled Green Bay into a slumber Sunday night. Big plays aren't likely, though. … If Desmond Clark and Greg Olsen were on different teams, they'd be fantasy starters for sure. Now that Olsen is healthy, though, they'll cannibalize one another. Still, you could do worse than starting one or the other. … Both defenses are eminently usable. Even in their depleted state, the Bears are tied for the lead league in sacks (with 17), while the Vikes have recovered seven fumbles and scored three defensive touchdowns in four games.

Fantasy Down: Brad Childress is playing coy, but it sounds like Tarvaris Jackson will be back from his groin injury. Sound the harps and kazoos. They'd be better with Kelly Holcomb in the short term, but the short term is a lost cause anyway. … Cedric Benson has a woeful 3.0 yards per carry, and you can blame only some of that on harsh opponents like San Diego, New England and Green Bay. He has lost two fumbles, too. Anyway, it won't get any better against Pat Williams , Kevin Williams and Co. this week. Minnesota allows the fewest rush yards and the second-fewest fantasy points to opposing runners. … Muhsin Muhammad should benefit from the change to Griese, but he caught only one pass last week on three targets. You can't start him or Bernard Berrian, whose speed is negated by Griese's popgun arm.


Hard to believe Ronnie Brown was splitting carries three weeks ago, huh? Cam Cameron's misjudgments have been legion, but that one stands out as a lulu. Brown is first in the NFL in all-purpose yards from scrimmage. I mentioned this in The Big Rotowski, but it bears repeating: Let's hear it for Miami's O-line. It has been good.

Fantasy Up: I like Derek Anderson this week. Offenses have been able to pick their paradise against Miami; Oakland wanted to run, and did, and Houston wanted to pass, and did. The Dolphins' secondary, in particular, is a mess. This team has too many reserve cornerbacks playing who are not quite good enough play in games yet (Jason Allen, Travis Daniels), and it starts Cameron Worrell, who got torched in the middle of the field for two huge plays Sunday, at safety. If Cleveland is smart (the jury's out on that), they'll spread the field with multiple receivers, run inside to loosen things up, then make big plays via the passing game. The question is: Who will be running? Jamal Lewis hurt his foot on Cleveland's first play last week, and Jason Wright subbed for him. Whoever starts is worth at least a flex play. … Could David Martin finally do something? The Browns allow more than 12 fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends, but Martin hasn't been used much at all.

Fantasy Down: Is Cleo Lemon related to Liz Lemon of "30 Rock" fame? I know Lemon is more athletic than Trent Green and has a stronger arm, but even against a secondary that has allowed 15 touchdown passes, I don't think I could start him. … Zach Thomas came back and shored up Miami's rush defense, just in time for the Fins to allow 278 yards through the air. Following his knee surgery, Joey Porter looks old, and the pass rush doesn't scare anyone, provided you account for Jason Taylor. You can't use this defense, and you clearly can't use Cleveland's either.


Contrary to what I wrote earlier this week, it seems like Santana Moss is actually likelier to play Sunday than Antwaan Randle El. That bodes well for Jason Campbell. Green Bay has become almost a caricature of a bump-and-run team; Al Harris and Charles Woodson seem to relish taking huge shots at receivers at the line. But Moss has been known to blast by too-close corners and make big plays. In my Friday update, I'll assuredly have Moss as my highest-ranked Washington receiver, assuming he makes it through practice OK.

Fantasy Up: I'd start Brett Favre, Donald Driver and Greg Jennings, but I have to admit I'm surprised at how well Washington's secondary has played through four games. Last year, Washington was last in the NFL in yards per pass attempt (6.91). This year, Washington is first (4.52). The secondary held up remarkably well against Detroit and won't get completely lit up by Green Bay, either. The Packers have committed seven turnovers the last two games, as opposed to three in the first three. … You have to love Washington's creativity of having Clinton Portis line up to take direct snaps, with Campbell split out wide. That kind of trickery won't work as well in Lambeau this week, but still, it was cool.

Fantasy Down: Sure, the Packers lost Sunday night because they lost the turnover battle, 5-1. But how about going three-and-out on three consecutive fourth-quarter series? And how about a two-minute drill that wasted time like Billy Bob Thornton has wasted his credibility? Green Bay's run game is broken, and center Scott Wells' absence won't help (they're getting 3.3 yards per attempt, fifth-worst in the league). DeShawn Wynn is the starter, but Vernand Morency will get his carries, and now Brandon Jackson is healthy, too. I can see starting Wynn, but only barely. … Randle El was swell for a half against the Lions, catching all seven of his targets for 100 yards. But his hammy hasn't allowed him to practice yet this week. He also struggles against bump-and-run corners who can get their hands on him, and the Packers' Woodson and Harris excel at that.


I can't remember whom I first heard say that the Jaguars are shooting to be the "mid-'80s Giants," but that's exactly right. The opening stinkbomb against Tennessee notwithstanding, this defense has been brilliant. Last week, they were one play away from shutting out Kansas City for the third time ever at Arrowhead. They held the Chiefs to 10 rushing yards and allowed them to cross midfield just three times. On offense, they run-run-run, and then mix in a bomb or two. I don't think the passing game's personnel is good enough for them to make a title run, but the defense sure is.

Fantasy Up: Both teams' quarterbacks are borderline starts. The Texans know they'll have to throw to have success, and Matt Schaub is a third-down machine. He missed some easy throws last week, taking deep shots instead of taking what the defense was giving him, but even without his big weapons, he has been way better than advertised. Meanwhile, David Garrard hasn't thrown an interception in four games, and I'm not buying the Demarcus Faggins/Fred Bennett platoon at cornerback. … I guess Maurice Jones-Drew still has explosiveness. Eight of his nine carries went for just a combined 30 yards Sunday, but the ninth one was an electric 52-yard touchdown run. Fred Taylor still out-carried MJD ,16-9, and has more handoffs in three of four games (and the opener was 7-6 in favor of MJD). Nevertheless, I relented and put MJD higher in this week's rankings. DeMeco Ryans is normally a force at middle linebacker for Houston, but he didn't play particularly well against Miami. You can feel safe starting either Jags back. … Dennis Northcutt works his way into deep-flex territory this week. He has 15 catches, while no other Jags receiver has more than six.

Fantasy Down: The left side of Houston's O-line is shaky. Ephraim Salaam's best days are behind him, and Chester Pitts can be bull-rushed. Watch Reggie Hayward and Paul Spicer on Sunday. If Schaub does struggle, they'll be the reason. … Ahman Green is supposed to be back, and he'll no doubt be an improvement over the hopeless Ron Dayne. Still, don't expect much. The Jags have allowed 82, 47 and 10 yards rushing since the Titans torched them in the opener.


The biggest news in the Chiefs' loss last week was that Jacksonville clearly was picking on Ty Law. The Chiefs are usually comfortable leaving their corners one-on-one during blitzes, but the Jags repeatedly worked Law over. Is it a trend? To me, Law had looked pretty good up to that game, so maybe this was just a bad outing. We'll know more after Cincy's pass offense gets through with him.

Fantasy Up: Larry Johnson looked defeated last week. And I guess that's apt, considering he was defeated, to the tune of 12 yards on nine carries. Still, the Chiefs can't like seeing their best player walking around the field like a heart-broken kid. It should get better this week. The Bengals have allowed the seventh-most fantasy points to opposing rushers this year. I know KC would love to see Willie Roaf pulling around the end, leading LJ, but Roaf is probably on a beach somewhere. Still, I think Johnson puts forth a fantasy-relevant game Sunday. … Why didn't the Chiefs throw to Dwayne Bowe until after halftime last week? Bowe is a good weapon and should get open this week against Johnathan Joseph's replacement, rookie Leon Hall. Start him. … You don't need me to tell you to start Carson Palmer, Chad Johnson or T.J. Houshmandzadeh, but as I said earlier, it'll be interesting to see if they pick on Law. As surprising as this is, KC has allowed the fewest fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks this year.

Fantasy Down: This is the second straight game the Chiefs will face a team coming off its bye. That said, the first week was against Jacksonville, a good defense regardless. There's no way you can be tempted into playing the Bengals defense, no matter how anemic you think the Chiefs are on offense (and they are anemic). … Tackle Willie Anderson is out Sunday, snapping his streak of 116 straight games. That's not good news for Rudi Johnson, if he plays, or Kenny Watson. As long as Johnson stays questionable all week, as I think he will, it's hard to see either man as more than a flex option.


Call it the Rich Kotite Bowl. (Go ask your father if you don't know what that means.) The Jets are already cooked, while the Eagles are a loss away from it. Who'd have thought a little guy like Brian Westbrook could be so utterly indispensable to an offense? It's true: Philly looked absolutely lost without him two weeks ago. He's supposedly going to play this week, which is great news since the Jets allow the second-most fantasy points to rushers.

Fantasy Up: I still like the Jets secondary a lot, and the middle linebackers are solid. But the run problems start with nose tackle Dewayne Robertson, a much-maligned former No. 4 overall pick. He's not big (relatively speaking), doesn't make tackles and doesn't plug gaps. Rare is the time he disrupts anything in the backfield, and the Giants ran it up the gut with success countless times last week. Westbrook is my third-favorite fantasy back of the week, assuming he plays. … You probably have to start Donovan McNabb this week, simply because so many good quarterbacks have their bye week. I don't love Donny Football anymore, though. His blind-side tackle, William Thomas, might not be back, and the guard alongside him, Todd Herremans, is definitely out. If the Jets could get to the quarterback at all (they have just three sacks this season), I'd be more afraid.

Fantasy Down: Boy, I guess the Jets miss guard Pete Kendall, huh? Kendall held out for a better contract and got shipped to Washington before the season started, but while the pass-blocking has been fair, Thomas Jones just doesn't have any holes to run through. The team has averaged just 3.0 yards per carry, tied with the Chiefs for worst in the NFL. Leon Washington took nine carries away from Jones last week, and while this isn't a straight platoon yet, Jones hasn't been effective enough to use, except maybe as a flex. In fact, in PPR leagues, Washington is actually the better choice. … I've given up on Reggie Brown for the moment, and you should, too. He can be dropped in shallow leagues, although deep-league owners can leave him on the pine. … Chad Pennington's poor decisions show up more glaringly than other signal-callers' because of his weak arm. Those two second-half picks last week were brutal. Kellen Clemens is ready and waiting.


Last season, the Titans won in spite of their defense; this year, it seems they're winning in spite of their offense. Tennessee's defense outscored Atlanta's offense last week, while Vince Young and Co. racked up just 198 total yards and nine first downs. Really, the Titans should've lost. The Falcons had first-and-goal at the 1-yard line late in the fourth quarter, but Albert Haynesworth got insane penetration and forced Byron Leftwich to make a bad pitch, resulting in an eight-yard loss, and the rest is history. If the Titans defense isn't owned in your league, go get it.

Fantasy Up: Young posted a 34.5 quarterback rating last week and threw three interceptions. He has a history of playing well after his worst games, but the bad decisions must stop. You should start VY this week and hope he learned something. … Joey Galloway had a killer drop before halftime against the Colts last week, one that led to a 10-point swing. Since beginning the year with 207 yards in two games, Galloway has 99 in the last three. He'll have to get open Sunday for the Bucs to have a chance. … LenDale White benefits from Tampa Bay linebacker Barrett Ruud's knee injury. Ruud might not play this week. White and Chris Brown split carries last week, and Brown got the only touchdown. But I still like White more. I have him as a solid No. 2 back this week. … Interesting stat: Tennessee's defense hasn't allowed a point in the fourth quarter.

Fantasy Down: Jeff Garcia played his typical efficient game last week: 18-for-23, 143 yards, two touchdowns and zero picks. But the Titans are allowing the fourth-fewest fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. I do think the Bucs will throw, but I'm worried Garcia and Co. will have a hard time getting possessions. That's what happened in Indy. … Earnest Graham is the last man standing in the Bucs backfield, after Michael Pittman went down with an ankle injury. Just in case you were tempted by Graham this week, the Bucs brought in Zack Crockett to potentially steal goal-line carries. Stay away.


If only new Panthers backup Vinny Testaverde could get on the field against Kurt Warner this week. Then the combined quarterback age could exceed Stephen Hawking's IQ.

Fantasy Up: The way to beat Warner is by pressuring him, but Carolina has been terrible in that area this year. The Panthers have just two sacks and two interceptions in five games. That's why I like Warner so much this week. Carolina's secondary is better than it has looked, but opposing quarterbacks have so much time to pick it apart. … Rookie Jon Beason moved from the weakside inside linebacker spot to middle linebacker last week, which might indicate Dan Morgan will be out longer than the Panthers originally let on. Beason did well in his first try against the Saints, but Arizona's power running game will be a stricter test. Start Edgerrin James despite the fact that tackle Levi Brown re-injured his ankle in practice. … The Rams slapped Arizona's defense around last week. In particular, chinks in the Cardinals' pass defense really started to show. Steve Smith will shine. … Larry Fitzgerald is an obvious start. Anquan Boldin? Well, if you can get word that he'll definitely play prior to 1 p.m. ET Sunday, start him. It's sounding like a game-time decision, though, and this is a late game.

Fantasy Down: David Carr without a bad back is a spooky proposition. He of the career 75.2 quarterback rating continues to play with his hair on fire (independent of the fact that that hair is now something of a mullet). A solid running game would be the best thing for Carr, and I do have DeShaun Foster rated as a No. 2 fantasy rusher this week. Still, Arizona is more effective against fantasy backs (11th) than fantasy throwers (19th). … It seems like it has been forever since the Cardinals' fantasy defense has been more usable than the Panthers'. Julius Peppers (zero sacks, 13 tackles in five games) continues to be MIA. I can see using Arizona this week if your regular unit is on bye; I have them rated 10th. That's more to do with Carr's mistakes than anything.


This is the week's main event, and I think it'll be closer than pundits believe. Sure, the Pats are at least a little better at nearly every position. But the most impressive win either of these teams has is probably Dallas' prime-time 34-10 whoopin' of Chicago in Week 3. Derek Anderson threw effectively most of the day against the Patriots last week, and Dallas's aerial attack speaks for itself. I'm predicting it'll be 30-something to 20-something.

Fantasy Up: As such, it's safe to play just about any option you have on either of these teams. Tom Brady and Tony Romo are my top two quarterback options for the week. Don't be overly spooked by Romo's five picks Monday night; he kept firing it and still managed to deliver positive fantasy points in his worst game. I like (but don't love) Asante Samuel, and Ellis Hobbs plays off receivers as much as any cornerback in the game. The Belechickians will scheme to stop Terrell Owens as much as anyone can (Owens' continued drops help); Patrick Crayton could have a fine game as a result. … Owens and Randy Moss are obvious starts every week, but watching these respective defenses deal with them should be fascinating. The Browns didn't bump Moss a lot, but they gave the corner on his side linebacker help (on short routes) or safety help (anything deep) on every play. I don't think Dallas will do the same, or Brady would tear them up by throwing to his other receivers. Plus, Anthony Henry, who has been the Cowboys' best corner, won't play.

Fantasy Down: Laurence Maroney has been one of the most disappointing players in fantasy, and your guess is as good as mine whether he'll play Sunday. I'd use Sammy Morris, regardless. I wish Maroney's presence on the trip to Dallas would be a good indicator, but Maroney traveled to Cincinnati a couple weeks back and still didn't play. … Donte' Stallworth has a sore knee, so keep an eye on him. If he can't go, Wes Welker becomes a must-start in all league setups. I'm kind of assuming Stallworth will play, though, which would mean both he and Welker are marginal starts.


The Raiders are in first place in the AFC West at 2-2 despite having a 15-game losing streak against AFC West opponents. (Only 15 of the Raiders' 53 current players were on their roster the last time they beat a division rival.) Not so incidentally, LaDainian Tomlinson has 944 rushing yards and nine touchdowns in seven games against the Raiders during the streak. Yikes.

Fantasy Up: Philip Rivers ran for a score last week, which certainly bolstered his owners' results. However, relying on that every week is akin to relying on Lou Piniella for an easygoing, uneventful baseball season. Oakland hasn't been nearly as tough to throw against this year as last (they're 27th in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks), in part because Derrick Burgess is still out. Burgess (NFL-high 27 combined sacks in 2005 and 2006) almost assuredly will miss this game, too, which will bump Rivers up to starter level in my Friday rankings update. … The last time these teams played, Vincent Jackson was at the center of a huge controversy. The Raiders were leading 14-7 late in the game, and the Chargers had a fourth-and-long. Jackson caught a pass to convert, got up without being touched, and spun the ball to celebrate. The Raiders recovered. The officials judged Jackson's spin was an "illegal forward pass," penalized San Diego five yards, but let 'em keep the ball. San Diego went on to win. Anyway, start Jackson this week. … I also like Ronald Curry. If the Chargers go into poor-tackling relapse, Curry will be a beneficiary.

Fantasy Down: LaMont Jordan couldn't make it through Wednesday's practice because of his bad back, and sounds highly questionable. Justin Fargas and newly activated Dominic Rhodes should split touches, but I wouldn't use either against the Chargers' defense. Heck, I wouldn't use Daunte Culpepper, either. … The Oakland defense got some hype as a fantasy sleeper this August. No more. It's scoring just more than six fantasy points a game, which won't get it done. You can't use them against L.T. and the Chargers, for sure.


I was among the vocal minority who defended Shaun Alexander this summer. I believed his 2006 injuries would leave him fresh for 2007, and he'd pick up where his 2005 MVP season ended. I was wrong. Alexander still shows flashes, but he's not a plow horse anymore. Not only did he account for just 32 total yards last Sunday, but he had his NFL-record streak of 67 games with a run of 10 or more yards broken. Listen, it'll be much easier for him at home against the Saints than it was on the road against the Steelers. But I'm finally in agreement: He's not elite anymore.

Fantasy Up: Matt Hasselbeck was so putrid last week, he got pulled in the fourth quarter. He was 13-for-27 for 116 yards and a back-breaking end-zone interception at the end of the first half. But New Orleans is in the top 10 in fantasy quarterback points allowed, so even without Deion Branch this week, Hasselbeck is a definite bounce-back start. … Bobby Engram deserves a look, too. I know Nate Burleson is the downfield guy with Branch out, but I don't trust his hands. Engram will get out of his normal slot role and play flanker. Ben Obomanu, who led the team in targets in Pittsburgh, will likely play out of the slot. … Reggie Bush played fairly well against Carolina but had a short touchdown vultured by Mike Karney. That's no good. Sean Payton claims he trusts Bush in short-yardage situations, though. … It sounds as though Lance Moore is about to get a lot more action at receiver for the Saints. I wouldn't start him just yet, but he's on the radar screen. The team's patience with Devery Henderson is wearing thin.

Fantasy Down: Seattle's defense wouldn't be the unit I'd choose to play against if I were Drew Brees, especially on the road and with a national-TV audience. The Hawks might struggle a bit against the rush, but they really can pressure the quarterback and have 16 sacks. I'd say no thanks on Brees. … Henderson didn't do his leader any favors last week. The fourth-quarter pass he popped straight up in the air deep in Carolina territory, which was subsequently intercepted by my namesake, Chris Harris, might've helped Brees to a heroic win. Henderson's hands are awful.


"Danger, Will Robinson!" A couple weeks ago, Osi Umenyiora lined up against a wet-behind-the-ears replacement tackle and registered six sacks (against the Eagles). This week, Umenyiora is likely to line up against rookie Renardo Foster, who's in for Wayne Gandy. On the other side, Todd Weiner just had knee surgery and will be replaced by Tyson Clabo. So much for the Falcons focusing their help on Umenyiora. Atlanta enters this game with one of the youngest offensive tackle combinations in recent memory. That'll make for an ugly Monday night game for the Falcons.

Fantasy Up: Eli Manning to Plaxico Burress isn't exactly Peyton-to-Marvin, but it's getting there. Of course, Burress won't be able to shove aside Andre Dyson every week like he did against the Jets, but don't bet against him scoring yet another touchdown. … Warrick Dunn is a fantasy starter this week in my book, mainly by process of elimination. At least he starts for his NFL team. Jerious Norwood has gotten 35 carries to Dunn's 74 this year, and 10 catches to Dunn's 15. Who's a clearly better option than Dunn? Ahman Green? Earnest Graham? Thomas Jones? Julius Jones? Justin Fargas? Hey, I don't love Dunn, either, but the Falcons will get him the ball in space somehow and hope he makes a few plays. You could do worse. … Brandon Jacobs fumbled on his first carry back, and the Jets scored on the play. After that, though, he was given lots of opportunities, and made good on them. I still think he's one of the slowest backs to the hole in the entire NFL, and in that respect Derrick Ward is a better option. But as long as Jacobs is the man, start him.

Fantasy Down: Joey Harrington really doesn't deserve this. Sure, he has never shown he can be a consistently capable NFL quarterback, but he's also been in some terrible situations, hasn't he? I mean, by my count, this is 3-for-3. It'll never happen for the kid, and we shouldn't weep for millionaires. But still, Harrington never has gotten a fair shake. … Roddy White has 33 targets in 2007, as many as Marques Colston and Kevin Curtis (albeit in one more game). He has scored only once, but he also has looked fast and decisive. Too bad Harrington won't have time to throw the ball to him Monday night.

Christopher Harris is a fantasy baseball, football and racing analyst for ESPN.com. You can e-mail him here.