Called Out!: Where to rank Marshall?
Our experts' rankings were widely varied when it came to him and other key options
Put away those draft sheets, folks; a brand-new season is finally here.
The 2009 campaign is filled with captivating stories, perhaps led by Tom Brady's return from reconstructive knee surgery. Oh how I've been itching all offseason to tear apart our experts for their high Week 1 rankings of Brady. Well, except for one problem: The guy threw for more than 300 yards and four touchdowns in each of two meetings versus the Buffalo Bills in 2007, looked fantastic throughout the preseason and still has two of the best pass-catching weapons in football in Randy Moss and Wes Welker.
I guess even I, critical as I might be, am finally being sold on Brady.
So in this, our debut week of "Called Out!" I suppose I can go easier on Erik Kuselias, who ranked Brady his No. 1 quarterback, or Matthew Berry, Christopher Harris and Eric Karabell, who ranked Brady second. Can't say I disagree with you … though Mr. Kuselias, I find it hard to believe Drew Brees versus the Detroit Lions is a less attractive opening-week play! (Hey, it's Week 1, and I need warm-up criticism.)
I'm calling an "audible" with this column for this season. Instead of our former interview approach -- I'm sure the guys didn't appreciate me installing heat lamps and a space heater in the interview room last year -- we're going list format, top-10 style. Each week I'll pick and rank our experts' 10 individual rankings that most surprised me, comparative to the others' ranks, my personal opinion and the typical fantasy player's opinion (think average draft position, ownership percentages, etc.).
Yes, it's stealing a page out of Berry's book, a la "10 lists of 10." Hey, what better way to rile up the guy with the most mentions in our opening-week top 10? And OK, in my column it's just one top-10 list. So I'm lazy. Sue me.
And awaaaaaaaaay we go!
10. Harris ranks the Seattle Seahawks his No. 20 defense. I'm rarely, if ever, that shocked by defense/special teams rankings, so it makes sense that my lone team defense call-out lands at No. 10. Not that the Seahawks boast an elite unit, but neither can the St. Louis Rams offense be termed that. Harris must have a lot of love for Steven Jackson this season, no?
"I suppose I could've lived with a better-than-average ranking for this defense before Marcus Trufant got hurt," Harris says. "That leaves the Seahawks with exactly how many good corners? Zero. Ken Lucas is overrated and underwhelming, and Josh Wilson's best trait is that he's not Kelly Jennings. I like the linebackers fine, but this is essentially the same defensive front -- adding in the impressive Aaron Curry -- that finished 30th in total defense last year and allowed the most passing yards of any team in football. And in Week 15 last year, they allowed the Rams to produce 342 yards of total offense with a hobbled Steven Jackson. I know the temptation is to like any team playing the Rams, but not the Seahawks. Not me."
For the record, I'm expecting a huge game from Jackson, who actually doesn't have a 100-yard rushing game in his career versus the Seahawks. There's a first for everything!
9. Everybody loves Cedric Benson … except Karabell, who has him 24th among running backs. Perhaps Benson single-handedly beat one of Karabell's teams in the playoffs last year with his back-to-back 17-plus fantasy point Weeks 15 and 16?
"Well, it might take me a little time to rank Cedric Benson as a safe RB2," Karabell says. "Bear with me. He is, after all, Cedric Benson. I know the Denver Broncos can't stop anybody, but I also think Carson Palmer, Chris Henry and Chad Ochocinco are going to have fun through the air. It's not like the Broncos are world-beaters against the pass. I think Benson is a worthy play this week, but more along the lines of a flex option, I guess. Is he going to run for 100 yards? Are we sure he'll score? I think putting him among the top 25 running backs is a step forward."
8. Kuselias ranks Antonio Bryant 14th among wide receivers. This is one of the tougher calls of Week 1. On one hand, Bryant faces the overrated Dallas Cowboys secondary and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers value vertical strikes downfield. On the other, Bryant is coming off knee surgery and has Byron Leftwich throwing him the football. It's a tad too bold a ranking for my tastes.
"Quick, name the wide receivers who ranked in the top 10 in catches, receiving yards and touchdowns last season," Kuselias says. "Sure, Larry Fitzgerald, but then who? By the way, Randy Moss did not make the cut. Digest that while you realize Antonio Bryant was on the list, he will play, looks healthy and barring an injury setback, he must be in the top 20 … unless he stole your high school girlfriend … or you didn't have a high school girlfriend."
7. Berry ranks Terrell Owens his No. 28 wide receiver. Interestingly enough, both Berry and I were anti-T.O. in the preseason, and our opinion apparently extends into the regular season.
"As I have said in this week's Love/Hate, on the radio, on TV and to random people on the street, I hate T.O.," says Berry. "So you don't have to look it up, here's the reasons I gave: I tend not to like road teams on Monday night to begin with. National stage, crowd gets really amped up, all that. But in this case, it's gonna be an unmitigated disaster. The Bills' first team offense looked horrific in the preseason, there's a new offensive coordinator, Owens hasn't played very much, the offensive line is a mess and Edwards will spend a lot of time on his back. Plus you add all the reasons I was down on him in the preseason. Fourth in the NFL in drops last year, on the wrong side of 35, a much more conservative offense, just there's nothing here to like except yeah, he's a big name. I get it. Doesn't mean I have to start him. No, no, no thank you. Not even with your team."
Don't you worry -- Terrell Owens isn't on any of my teams. (OK, one of my 12, but that was the autopick draft. Blasted scheduling conflicts.)
6. Harris ranks Bernard Berrian his No. 28 wide receiver. Wait -- what? No Brett Favre love? Everyone loves Brett Favre!
"How many catches has Bernard Berrian caught in a game, any kind of game, from Brett Favre? Zero," Harris says. "Berrian has been out with a bad hamstring, and will be listed as questionable. Even if he plays, which he might, let's not go crazy. The Cleveland Browns are a lot more susceptible to the run than they are to the pass, and if I recall, the Minnesota Vikings have this pretty good running back they like to give the ball to. And once it's 34-0 or whatever, there's not going to be a lot of reasons for the team to push a hobbled Berrian. I think he's a flex guy at best this week, and there's a risk he can't go at all. No way in the world he should be 15th or higher on anyone's list until he shows he's healthy."
5. Kuselias ranks Reggie Bush 35th among running backs. Now, Pierre Thomas has created a world of hurt for us in the rankings Thursday, posting on his Twitter page, "I am preparing for the Lions on Sunday and waiting for the thumbs-up from the Saints." If Thomas plays, OK, Kuselias' ranking makes total sense. I'm a Thomas fan and love this matchup. But still …
"Reggie Bush can be ranked higher only if you make some assumptions," Kuselias says. "If you are in a PPR league, sure, he's top 20. If Pierre Thomas is hurt, he might be top 20. If Mike Bell doesn't steal his goal-line work, he might be top 20. If he stays healthy, he might be top 20. But when you have to make several assumptions to get a guy into the top 20, I'll stay skeptical. Good luck with the 6-8 catches and the 9-12 rushes … and no touchdowns."
I just want to throw it out there: Bush has averaged six receptions and 11 rushing attempts per game in his NFL career, sure, but he has also scored 24 touchdowns (OK, four on special teams) in 38 games. That's a 0.632 per-game average, or essentially a 63.2 percent chance of him finding the end zone in a typical week. I guess I just can't call a matchup with the Detroit Lions your "typical week."
4. Berry ranks Mike Bell 18th, Karabell ranks Bell 20th, among running backs. Kuselias does have a point with regard to Bell; Bell is a big-time Week 1 sleeper of mine. Maybe I'm not as surprised by this one as you might be; I'm right in line with Berry and Karabell in calling him a No. 2/flex option. (If Thomas sits, of course.) That's why I'm ranking this "shocker" fourth.
"He has looked awesome in the preseason and yeah, this ranking is based on the idea that I don't think Pierre Thomas plays," Berry says. "No team gave up more points to opposing running backs last year than the Lions, and I don't expect that to have changed."
"I was actually the lone person to rank Pierre Thomas, but I still had Mike Bell and Reggie Bush better," Karabell says. "It would be tough for all three of these players to produce worthy numbers in the same game, but I just wanted to make sure I had Bell in a nice spot, and didn't presume Thomas would miss the game. I can update his rank for Friday if I must. Bell had a nice preseason, and I don't think if Thomas misses the game that Bush would suddenly get 15 carries. Bell will be a factor, and a nice one in this dream matchup."
3. Berry ranks Joe Flacco his No. 7 quarterback. For as much as I've loved Flacco this entire calendar year, even I can't be so bold as to rate him a must-start quarterback, which is effectively what a top-10 ranking means.
"Last year, he averaged 16 fantasy points per game for Weeks 8 through 17. To give a comparison, Drew Brees averaged 18 points per game last season," Berry says. "He was much better from a fantasy perspective than you might have thought. Now you get the Kansas City Chiefs coming to town, a defense that was [in the] top 10 last year in fantasy points allowed to opposing quarterbacks, 28th in the NFL in passing yards allowed and 29th in points allowed. Flacco has looked awesome in the preseason, having more yards passing than another preseason darling, Aaron Rodgers. What are folks seeing in the Chiefs, on the road, with a new coach, that they are ranking him so low? Frankly, it's everyone else that should be called out on this one, not me."
I'm a two-quarterback league vet. Flacco's fine in that. More than that? Hmm …
2. Karabell ranks Maurice Jones-Drew his No. 11 running back -- a second-tier option! Perhaps I was too high on Jones-Drew in the preseason, ranking him my No. 2 player overall? Kidding, kidding. I'm not backtracking from that, and understandably people might have their doubts about MJD, what with his shin contusion putting him at slight risk for the opener.
"I like Jones-Drew and assume he will be healthy, but I don't really think this is a great matchup for him, or he'll perform much differently than he has in past games versus the Indianapolis Colts," Karabell says. "A season ago, Jones-Drew ran for 91 and 107 yards plus a touchdown. There's not a thing wrong with that, but he had 39 carries in those games. Now that Fred Taylor is out of the way he'll suddenly get a lot more touches than this? MJD is still a worthy starter for me, but I'm hedging a bit due to his play against Indy in the past."
I dunno, three of his seven career 100-yard rushing games came versus the Colts, one of them last season, and he has seven career touchdowns (special-teams contributions included) in six games against them. I can't really complain about that track record, but then again, I'm such a Jones-Drew fan this year.
1. Harris ranks Brandon Marshall his No. 12 wide receiver. What's most curious about that ranking is that 12th is exactly where Marshall finished the 2008 season among wide receivers. In other words, it seems like his offseason injuries, contract demands, preseason holdout and resulting suspension have gone out the window, at least in Harris' view?
"Hey, I'd be thrilled if the Broncos had suspended Marshall for his boorish behavior," Harris says. "But instead they're talking contract extension with him. Explain to me why he won't be roughly the same guy we saw last year? Kyle Orton instead of Jay Cutler? Yeah, that's why he's 12th and not, I don't know, fifth or something. Marshall is an elite talent, and for all you want to say about Leon Hall and Johnathan Joseph, no single guy can cover him. If Kyle Orton can be Matt Cassel, why can't Marshall be Randy Moss in a Josh McDaniels offense? Is everyone super-convinced by the Bengals' pass rush, which tied for the second fewest sacks in the league last year? (I know that they're not; nobody has them higher than 19th.) I can't guarantee production because nobody can guarantee production. But if you drafted Marshall, you start him. Period."
Well said -- I'd be hard-pressed to find a fantasy roster deep enough to allow an owner to sit Marshall, generally a No. 1 or high-2 on most every team. That said, I'm with the others; Eddie Royal is the more attractive play of the two.
Tristan H. Cockcroft is an FSWA award-winning fantasy football analyst for ESPN.com. You can e-mail him here.
