D Up: Week 10
Luck. Winners denounce it as the source of their success, while losers blame it on their misfortune. We can be as informed and prepared as possible as fantasy managers and yet still succumb to the unpredictable nature of luck.
I won a crucial late season fantasy matchup a few years back on a last second, desperation hook-and-lateral (or ladder you prefer) to Julius Jones. The single point awarded to my team for the play was enough to put me past my competition. Minutes later, my phone buzzed on the coffee table. The text read, "You lucky bastard." He was right, but I still won. One dude I compete against has lost late on Monday night four times so far this season, all by less than a point. He even lost one game six days after an assumed victory, when points were retroactively awarded to his foe after the stat corrections were posted. He must have crossed the fantasy gods at some point along the line.
The point is that we can't do much when bad luck strikes. When your stud back fumbles at the goal line or your star receiver tears his knee just minutes into the season, ala Javon Walker in '05, you simply cannot give up. Don't let a rough stretch make you complacent with your team. Nothing is worse in a fantasy league than a neglected, bottom-feeding team. If you really consider yourself a dedicated fantasy nerd, you have no recourse other than to utilize your depth and aggressively troll the wire and the trade market to make up the lost production. While much of what affects our fantasy fate is uncontrollable, we can at least decide how we react and recover.
Consider using these players if you are in immediate need of impact defenders, especially in deep leagues.
Linebackers and Linemen: James Harrison's ownership shot up a remarkable 33.5 percent this week in ESPN IDP leagues thanks to his legendary, once in a career type performance versus the Ravens. He looked like Bobby Boucher out there, posting a simply insane line with 10 tackles, 3.5 sacks, 3 forced fumbles, one recovered and a pick. I'll go out on a limb and say that this performance will go down as the top IDP outing of the season, besting the six-sack performance from Osi Umernyiora in Week 4 … Elvis Dumervil is the rare low-tackle defender to covet since his sacks and fumbles keep you fed. Consider him a top pickup this week against the reshuffled KC offense … If D.J. Williams was a robot, he'd likely be the type that tackles a lot … Contrary to popular belief, Rocky McIntosh is not a Irish ice cream flavor, rather an emerging tackle-monster playing linebacker for the 'Skins. Add Rocky if for some odd reason he's still available in your league … It's safe to add Jon Beason now that he officially owns the MLB role with Dan Morgan making his annual trip to the IR … Aaron Schobel has historically been a late starter, but with just 2.5 sacks so far (14 in '06), this is getting a little ridiculous. Either way, keep an eye on him, as he hasn't posted less than 8.5 sacks in any of the past five seasons … Michael Boley's ownership if finally starting to catch up with his production. He personifies the lag that exists on the wire in IDP leagues versus standard formats. If Boley were an offensive player producing at a comparable clip, he'd have been owned in the vast majority of leagues after Week 2.
Defensive backs: Wake up my fellow nerds: Cleveland's Leigh Bodden is on pace for eight interceptions and nearly 100 tackles, yet he's still available in more than 60 percent of ESPN IDP leagues … Looking for a fantasy DB with a trusted track record? Sammy Knight has more than 1,000 career tackles and counting … If bonehead penalties were a recognized fantasy statistic, Atari Bigby would reign supreme. Thankfully, Bigby has solid totals in legit fantasy categories and faces a sloppy Vikings' passing offense this week … Marcus Trufant is the rare cornerback that posts solid solo tackles. Add him now if you're riding a boom-or-bust option at DB … Stop waiting for that low-tackle corner to grab an interception each week and add Chris Harris, the Carolina safety not the famed ESPN fantasy analyst. Lost in the mess that is the Panthers, Harris has had a quietly excellent first half of the season … Nick Harper is on pace for career highs in tackles and interceptions. Why not enjoy the ride?
Target these guys for depth and bye-week plug-ins with an eye on their potential to be full-fledged starters.
Linebackers and Linemen: While James Harrison's ridonculous Week 9 got all the pub, the Jets' David Harris posted a similarly silly stat line with 24 total tackles last week. Harris now has 41 tackles the past two weeks. You read that correctly. Even though he's on bye, add him immediately, then come back and finish the article … Thanks to their steady tackle clips, both Derrick Johnson and Landon Johnson merit ownership in 12-team leagues … Shaun Phillips is set to return this week from injury and even though his matchup with Indy isn't ideal, he's an ideal second-half sleeper to consider … Chad Greenway is a quality depth-addition in deeper leagues and a key add in keeper formats … Joining Harrison and Harris in the prolific Week 9 performance club is Shaun Rogers, the beastly tackle for the Lions. Don't expect Rogers to be a worthy weekly play in fantasy, but he's definitely a nice depth player to consider given the matchup … Andre Carter has realistic sack potential this week against a markedly slowed Donovan McNabb … Even though fantasy owners have yet to take notice, David Thornton has quietly replaced Keith Bulluck as the Titans' top defensive fantasy option.
Defensive backs: A top-3 fantasy DB last year, Chris Hope is finally starting to show signs of statistical life after a frigid start to the season … Everyone keeps talking about this Adrian Peterson character but what about Antonio Cromartie? The kid has four touchdowns in the past two weeks and he is a nickel cornerback. Much like Peterson, he's a world class athlete, but his role severely limits his consistency. If you're into high-risk, high-reward fantasy options, then Cromartie is your man … The punishing Rodney Harrison faces a very friendly upcoming schedule. Add him if you can afford to stash him on his bye week … Stuart Schweigert can be relied on for tackles and little else, but at least you'd own a guy named Stuart on your fantasy team … The Panthers' Ken Lucas and Richard Marshall are both nice plays against the turnover prone Atlanta offense … Kelvin Hayden is worth targeting in deep leagues for bye and injury support … Roman Harper sounds like a villain on an HBO series, but he's actually an emerging safety for the Saints. Harper has an ideal matchup this week against the pass and turnover-heavy Rams' offense.
Jim McCormick is an IDP analyst for ESPN.com Fantasy.
