Grand Theft Roto: Post-bye-week targets
It's all about perspective.
Some people think the Patriots are running up the score on opposing teams. In fact, The Talented Mr. Roto himself, my boss, got his knickers in such a bunch about this during his Monday TRUM, I was tempted to send him a Grand Theft Crowbar to help him dislodge his Washington wedgie. Of course, he's a Redskins fan, so from his point of view, Bill Belichick sent in "sweep the leg" plays to embarrass Joe Gibbs, Abe Lincoln and several other monumental men who have called D.C. home.
That's his perspective.
As a Patriots fan, I also think the Pats are running up the score, but I believe the defense is getting shafted in this conversation. After all, they scored a late touchdown, and it was also those insensitive defenders who kept the Skins from scoring until the very end of the game. If they had just eased up in the middle of the third quarter, Washington could've put up 21 or 28 points, and then the offensive production wouldn't have been considered so excessive.
That's just my perspective.
Let's see if there are some new ways of looking at players that could get you some bargains.
Anyone who has ever said, "Let me look at it with fresh eyes tomorrow," or, "I'd like to sleep on it," knows that oftentimes, one can take a rest and come back with a new angle on a problem.
In the NFL, the "rest" is the bye week, and the "problem" is how to win games. So with most teams already past their bye weeks, I like to look at players who have seen their opportunities to touch the ball, especially in the red zone, expand or contract after the bye. When I see a player who suddenly is being targeted more by his quarterback or a running back who is touching the ball less inside the 20-yard line, it's often a sign that the playcallers have changed their opinion of him. If you can pick up on these trends before they translate into huge numbers that turn a stud into a dud or vice versa, you can make trade offers based on the new way a player is being used.
Obviously, for the purposes of this column, I'm ignoring increases due solely to injuries to other players (hello, Kenny Watson) or well-publicized role changes resulting in someone getting a starting gig (Kevin Jones, you complete me).
Arnaz Battle has obviously benefited from Darrell Jackson's injury-caused inconsistency. But even when Jackson has been in the game, Battle has been a steady target the past two weeks. Battle averaged just under five "thrown-tos" per game before the Week 6 bye, but he has seen 10 passes come his way each week since. Considering he had different quarterbacks each of those weeks, that's a sign that his newfound popularity is system-based. He's a viable third fantasy receiver, even in shallow 10-team leagues. And if he's owned in your league, he could likely be had for a decent defense.
Chris Cooley is owned in almost all formats, but he's likely considered, at best, an average tight end, ranked seventh at his position in ESPN leagues in terms of points scored. But he has been targeted, on average, a shade under seven times per game since the Redskins' Week 4 intermezzo. A rough Week 7 against the Cardinals and the efficiency of the Patriots' D on Sunday (have I mentioned this before?) have depressed his numbers recently, but as long as the throws keep coming his way, the production will return. Find out if his owner has noticed.
Maurice Jones-Drew isn't in the top 10 of most people's "most-wanted backs" list, but he should be. While his overall touches and targets haven't gone up since Jacksonville's Week 4 bye, MoJo has been getting the call more when the Jags are inside the opponents' 20-yard line. Jones-Drew has either run the ball or gotten a pass thrown his way in the red zone 18 times in the past four weeks, while his backfield buddy, Fred Taylor, has had only three looks in the red zone. With MJD's breakaway ability and that play calling, MJD is sure to build on the four touchdowns he already has scored since the bye.
Remember before the season started and we all thought that Reggie Brown could be a top-20 receiver with Donovan McNabb healthy? That didn't pan out early; Brown saw plenty of passes but caught few of them. Well, Brown has had 17 of his 25 catches on the year in the past three weeks, basically since Philly took a Week 5 breather. Brown hasn't scored yet, but he has gotten three of the 11 red zone looks that have gone to wide receivers since the bye. Plus, he has the skills to score from any distance. I'm buying.
So if those are the players whose post-bye outlooks are enticing, who are the guys whose involvement is truly "bye-gone"? Kevin Curtis has been affected by Reggie Brown's resurgence, with his targets dipping each week since the bye. The days of him seeing double-digit passes seem to be over. In deeper leagues, both Mike Furrey and Sidney Rice have lost any steam they once had. Neither has had more than four passes thrown his way since his team took a break. But there has been no more disturbing post-bye casualty than Frank Gore. Before the Niners took Week 6 off, Gore had at least 20 rushes and targets combined in every week but one. He hasn't topped 17 looks since. I know he's dinged up with an ankle sprain, but the fact that he's on pace to catch half as many passes as he did in 2006 is a symptom of something deeper than a gimpy leg.
Sadly, I have no trades to report this week. But since it's Halloween, I'll reward a few readers who pulled off a "GTRick" by giving them a treat in the form of some props.
Earl from Pennsylvania just dealt Jason Avant and Amani Toomer for Kevin Faulk and Hines Ward. The crazy thing is that he'd originally offered Brett Favre for Faulk and Ward, but the other guy wanted the two receivers he got instead.
Sen from Detroit waited for Kenton Keith to steal some carries in Week 7 and then traded Clinton Portis, Ronald Curry and Nate Burleson for Joseph Addai and Patrick Crayton. There's a good chance his trading partner is dressed as a loser today -- and it isn't a costume.
Finally, Bobby from Oklahoma has been waiting three weeks for me to mention a tandem of trades he did with the same guy. The overall result of these two deals was that Bobby dealt Matt Schaub and Chris Cooley for Antonio Gates, Ronald Curry and Thomas Jones. Plus, he got Lee Evans off his team for a few of his worst weeks and got him back just in time for his recent rejuvenation. If Grand Theft Rotos were capital crimes, Bobby would need a priest.
This Halloween, if I want to be really scary, I'll dress up as these guys because they are terrorizing their leagues, and stealing them in the process.
Shawn Peters is a fantasy baseball and football analyst for ESPN.com, as well as a regular contributor to the Boston Globe Sunday Magazine. He can be reached at GrandTheftRoto@TalentedMrRoto.com.
