Grand Theft Roto: Offseason trade strategy
Not only do the people above me at the Worldwide Leader In Sports actually read my columns, but they also listen to my advice.
A week ago, I urged readers to deal away excess depth before the trade deadline because there wasn't anything those spare parts could do for you once the dealing was done.
Now I'm a casualty of my own strategy. The boys upstairs realized there ain't much call for a fantasy trade column once the deadline has passed, making me "excess depth." Thus, this will be the final Grand Theft Roto of the NFL season, as I move from yards per carry to yards per drive, prepping for the beginning of the fantasy golf season and my weekly column, The Fantasy Fore. So don't cry for me, Argentina.
But before I go, I'm throwing one last deep ball in the direction of readers who play in NFL keeper leagues.
If you are in a league that allows you to keep any player without repercussions, then there is very little science to targeting keepers. Yeah, you want LaDainian Tomlinson, Adrian Peterson, Randy Moss, Tom Brady and Antonio Gates. You also want to drink Mountain Dew when you're thirsty and eat Fatburgers when you're hungry. We hold these truths to be self-evident.
I'm going to assume, though, that your league is a little more complicated. Maybe you have to forfeit a draft pick that is two rounds higher than the one you used to select that player, making a guy like Braylon Edwards, who went in the 9th round of the average 10-team ESPN league, more valuable than, say, Terrell Owens, who went six rounds earlier. After all, would you rather forfeit a seventh-round pick for Braylon or a first-rounder to keep T.O.?
So, under this logic, who else is on my offseason shopping list?
Ben Roethlisberger's average draft position was 106th. Um, think he might go higher next year? In his first year under coach Mike Tomlin, Big Ben has thrown the ball with the frequency we saw during the Steelers' 2006 season, but the results have mirrored the efficiency he showed in Bill Cowher's run-first attack. He's on pace for nearly 3,500 passing yards and more than 30 touchdowns despite Hines Ward missing several weeks. Give Santonio Holmes another year to get seasoned like curly fries and Ben has "top-eight quarterback" written all over him. Speaking of Holmes, by the way, he was picked, on average, about seven slots behind Roeithlisberger, so he has a slot reserved in the keeper cart as well.
Wes Welker is another receiver I'd look at. A half-decade of Tom Brady spreading the ball around and Bill Belichick insisting on a balanced run/pass attack led ESPN fantasy footballers to draft 48 receivers before Welker, the Patriots' No. 3 receiver. But clearly that wouldn't be the case if a draft was held today, considering Welker's totals of 81 catches, 878 yards and seven touchdowns in just 11 games. I personally believe Randy Moss will be back in New England next year, and Donte' Stallworth will look for greener money … er, pastures. Welker should still benefit from defenses fearing Moss' deep-threat skills while getting even more looks should he replace Stallworth in the starting lineup.
Running back might be the hardest place to find keeper targets, depending on your rules, because so many of them go in the first few rounds and become "unkeepable" unless they're legitimate first-round talents. That said, I wouldn't mind seeing how cheaply I could acquire Justin Fargas and Michael Bush of the Raiders. Clearly, LaMont Jordan won't be there next year, and Dominic Rhodes is running out of matches from burning his fantasy owners' bridges. Fargas and Bush will each get a chance to compete for that starting tailback job next year, and with Oakland averaging 131.4 rushing yards per game -- fifth-best in the NFL -- it's very possible that whoever gets the carries will top 1,000 yards. Fargas, who has the experience and production, must be considered the favorite. Only four NFL backs who have averaged 10 rushes per game have averaged more yards per carry than Fargas' 4.8-yard mark. But by all indications, Bush would've gotten his shot this year if activating him off the injured list wouldn't have forced the team to waive Jordan and lose him to the rival Chiefs. Fargas is an intriguing keeper in most formats, and in leagues in which you have room to stash a prospect or two, Bush would be on my roster, too.
The real key, though, is to deal away fool's gold and get the real precious metals back. There are a few guys whose numbers will look so much better this year than they will next year, for various reasons. Those are the guys you want to offer up in offseason trading, or at least avoid taking in trade.
I'm a big Earnest Graham supporter right now, but next year could bring a return of Carnell Williams, who has a torn patella and two years left on a five-year, $30 million contract, and Michael Pittman who has a few years left in him. Neither has proven they can stay healthy, but the team has a vested interest in putting them on the field when they are, whereas Graham will be a free agent after 2008. Don't pay for Graham's 2007 numbers in 2008.
Either Shaun Alexander will get healthy or coach Mike Holmgren will hand the starting tailback job to someone else. Either way, Seattle will have a real, honest-to-goodness running game next year. So if someone sees Matt Hasselbeck's overall numbers and thinks he's the newest member of the "4,000-yard Club for Men" on a yearly basis, you should make the deal.
Who will quarterback the Eagles next year? Just as importantly, does that quarterback like throwing the ball to Kevin Curtis? The answers to both of these queries are "I don't know," so feel free to sell Curtis to anyone who thinks he has more of those tasty, three-touchdown games in his long-term future.
Mmm, keeper leagues. Almost makes me look forward to the offseason, when I can start trading again.
I made about 25 deals over the past 12 weeks and reported the highlights to you as they happened. Some looked better as time wore on, like my early-season deal of Ronnie Brown and DeShaun Foster for Clinton Portis and Edgerrin James. Others that looked great at the time turned suddenly fruitless, like when I dealt Matt Schaub, Tatum Bell and Foster for Brown and Deion Branch, only to watch both of my new players go down with injuries within two weeks. But my favorite deal of the year was the one I made in my home league, purloining Steven Jackson, Kellen Winslow, Wes Welker and an injured back who I replaced with Justin Fargas off waivers, all for the measly price of Kevin Jones, Jeremy Shockey, Chris Henry and the Seahawks' defense. I haven't lost since making that swap, and that's what making trades is all about.
The dealing is done. Here's hoping you all were able to "steal" your leagues. Drop me a line and let me know how your fantasy felonies worked out when the playoffs are done.
Shawn Peters is a fantasy baseball and football analyst for TalentedMrRoto.com and ESPN.com as well as a regular contributor to the Boston Globe Sunday Magazine. He can be reached at GrandTheftRoto@TalentedMrRoto.com.
