Berry: Love/Hate for Week 6
I have been playing fantasy sports for more than 20 years and have been writing/commentating/analyzing it professionally for more than eight years. And I have never wavered from my "running back-running back" draft theory.
Until now.
I was on the radio last night, and we were discussing this and I realized that, as of right now, if I had to announce my draft strategy for next season, it would no longer be running back-running back. It would be best available.
Just think about it. Other than the Colts and Patriots, are there any sure-thing running games in football? Ronnie Brown and Joseph Addai are the only running backs among the top 10 in fantasy points this season.
Some of the top guys at the other positions have faltered, too, but you didn't waste as high a draft pick on them. Derek Anderson is in the top 10. So are Plaxico Burress and Randy Moss, neither of whom were high on wide receiver draft lists this season. The Steelers are the highest-ranked fantasy defense, not everyone's beloved Bears and Ravens.
It's gotta be "best available." And props to our own Ken Daube, who suggested a similar but controversial draft strategy theory in our ESPN draft kit this season that would have proved effective.
Week 5 was a crazy week. I mean, what are you gonna do when the top fantasy scorers included the Bills' D, Najeh Davenport, Mike Sellers, Kris Brown, Michael Turner and Gus Frerotte, and players like Randy Moss, Shaun Alexander, Marion Barber III and Tony Romo don't show up? All told, I nailed just 50 percent (33 of 66) of my picks. Oh well. Nowhere to go but up.
I'm changing things up this week. In order to get a wider range of players into this column, I'm changing the parameters of who makes the Love/Hate list. Very simply, players that I love are players I think will exceed Hector and Victor's total fantasy points projection for them. Players I hate are players I think will fall short. That simple. Let's get to it.
Rudi Johnson, RB, Bengals: If I were asked to rank the Johnsons, Rudi tops Larry, Andre, Calvin, Doug and Brad. Oh, and "Johnson and Johnson," too. However, I'd still take Keyshawn over Rudi, if the former were still playing. On Sundays, I get to sit in the "War Room," which is where all the TV big shots watch the games, and I have to tell you: Keyshawn is hilarious.
Kenny Watson, RB, Bengals: Regardless of whether Rudi plays or not, Watson will be solid. You run on the Chiefs, you don't throw against them. And while you have to start the big three in the passing game (Carson, Chad, T.J.), I'm not expecting huge games from any of them. Watson, by the way, is especially nice in PPR leagues.
Dwayne Bowe, WR, Chiefs: In my best Pacman Jones voice: "Let's make it rain, Bowe!" (pause) Get it? Rainbow? And a Pacman reference, for good measure? Sigh. This gold is wasted on you guys sometimes.
Tony Gonzalez, TE, Chiefs: Suffice it to say I have lost my confidence in the Bengals' secondary.
Damon Huard and Samie Parker, Chiefs: You heard me.
Owen Daniels, TE, Texans: I can't be the only who, every time I hear the name Owen, thinks of the crazy lady from "Throw Momma From the Train" always screaming, "Owen!"
Dennis Northcutt and Ernest Wilford, WR, Jaguars: I like Northcutt. Fellow ESPN fantasy writer KC Joyner likes Wilford. Here's hoping we're both right.
Cleo Lemon, Chris Chambers, David Martin, Dolphins: Only one team in the NFL (Buffalo) has given up more passing yards per game than Cleveland, and no team has given up as many passing touchdowns (15).
Ronnie Brown, RB, Dolphins: Is he a sell-high candidate? Yes. Will he be even more valuable after this week? Yes.
Jason Wright, RB, Browns: I know, it's weird because he's usually such an ironman, but I'm assuming Jamal Lewis doesn't play.
Brian Griese, Bernard Berrian, Muhsin Muhammad, Greg Olsen, Bears: I'm not a big believer in the Vikings' secondary.
Bobby Wade, WR, Vikings: See Huard, Damon.
Donovan McNabb, Brian Westbrook and Kevin Curtis, Eagles: You know what the Jets are? Nate Ravitz's favorite team. Oh, and they are not so good.
Drew Bennett, WR, Rams: Two first names, always a crowd pleaser. If, you know, you count "Bennett" as a first name, which, if I were snooty and lived on a yacht, I would.
Willis McGahee, RB, Ravens: In this down year of running backs, he's quietly having a solid season.
Ravens defense/special teams: You know who is on the Gus Bus? Ray Lewis is on the Gus Bus.
LenDale White and Chris Brown, RBs, Titans: In a week with a ton of bye teams, and with all the injuries, both guys could be semi-productive.
Titans defense/special teams: My ESPNEWS Fantasy Insider cohort Merril Hoge loves them this week. Good enough for me.
Jason Campbell, Chris Cooley and Santana Moss, Redskins: Not that it has anything to do with fantasy, but I'd like to take this opportunity to point out my Redskins are 3-1.
Redskins defense/special teams: This unit is giving up only 13 points per game and has allowed only two passing touchdowns all season.
Cardinals defense/special teams: Fantasy defense gold, thy name is David Carr.
Edgerrin James, RB, Cardinals: I miss the gold teeth.
Kurt Warner, Larry Fitzgerald and Bryant Johnson, Cardinals: Tough week to be a Panthers fan.
Pick a Patriot, any Patriot: Brady, Moss, Welker, Morris, Watson, defense/special teams … even Stallworth is worth considering in a bye week. Just because it's obvious doesn't mean it isn't true.
Ronald Curry, WR, Raiders: How come no one ever says, "Hmm. Tastes like Ronald."
Justin Fargas, RB, Raiders: Because he'll be involved in the passing game, too.
All your Chargers: LT, Rivers, Gates, Jackson … Not a low-scoring game, this one.
Drew Brees, QB, Saints: He completed more than 60 percent of his passes last week, he's second in the NFL in pass attempts (you throw that much, good things happen), and I'm hanging on for at least one more week.
Mike Karney, RB. Saints: How many more vulture touchdowns do we need until there's a group of fans in the end zone that call themselves "Karney Folks?" Three? Four? To quote the Sports Guy: "This needs to happen."
Reggie Bush, RB, Saints: So far, Diet Pepsi machine is winning.
All your Seahawks: Hasselbeck, Engram, Alexander, Burleson … The Saints have allowed 29.8 points per game, fourth-most in the league.
Brandon Jacobs, RB, Giants: Welcome back.
Giants defense/special teams: Only three teams give up more sacks than the Falcons.
Matt Schaub, Ahman Green and Andre Davis, Texans: Take out the first game against the Titans and the Jags' defense has been dominant.
Derek Anderson and Kellen Winslow, Browns: They can't stop the run, but the Dolphins can stop the pass.
Adrian Peterson, RB, Vikings: You have to start him if you own him, of course, but lower your expectations against the Bears.
Cedric Benson, RB, Bears: You know what I don't get a lot of anymore? All those e-mails I got early in the season that yelled at me for hating Cedric Benson.
Chad Pennington and Thomas Jones, Jets: You know what else I don't get a lot of? All those e-mails telling me they agreed with me that Thomas Jones was going to have a big season.
Gus Frerotte, Brian Leonard and Randy McMichael, Rams: After the word "Gus," did it really matter what else I wrote here?
Steve McNair, QB, Ravens: Even if he doesn't get pulled for Kyle Boller. (pause) Think about how sad that sentence is.
Earnest Graham, RB, Buccaneers: See defense/special teams, Titans.
Vince Young, QB, Titans: On the road and on the grass? No thanks.
Brett Favre and James Jones, Packers: Not this week. No sir.
Any Panther except Steve Smith: You have to start them, of course, but … oh, just read what I wrote about Adrian Peterson.
Terrell Owens and Jason Witten, Cowboys: Even without the use of videotape, I believe in the Patriots' D.
Eli Manning, Jeremy Shockey, Giants: You beat Atlanta on the ground, not through the air.
Pick a Falcon, any Falcon: Why do I think ESPN was hoping this was gonna be a better game when the schedule was made last season?
Matthew Berry - The Talented Mr. Roto - is ESPN's senior director of Fantasy, in charge of content. He was just as surprised as you to find out it's a real job. He is a four-time Fantasy Sports Writers' Association award winner and the only writer in the industry with wins in multiple sports (NFL, MLB, NBA). Be sure to check him out every Sunday morning on ESPNEWS Fantasy Insider at 11 ET and on ESPN.com's Fantasy Football Now, which is live starting at noon ET. Cyberstalk the TMR here .
