Engel's mailbag: Keeper analysis and draft advice
Aaron, Denver: I have Chad Johnson as a keeper, and I will have a shot at T.J. Houshmandzadeh in our upcoming draft. He is the best wide receiver available in our keeper league. Add in the fact this is his contract year and the loss of Chris Henry for eight games. Would you pick another wide receiver from the same team as your current top guy?
Engel: I certainly think Houshmandzadeh is somewhat underrated by some fantasy owners, and he can be a No. 1 receiver in some larger leagues. I don't know if he ideally fits your needs, though. First, you can't assume he will fall to your draft spot, so don't lean too heavily on picking him and be ready with top alternative choices. He is not in a contract season (he signed a four-year deal with the Bengals in 2005), but he does want to renegotiate and that could be a motivating factor. The loss of Henry should mean a few more balls each for him and Johnson, but it's not very often that two wideouts explode in the same game, even in a powerful offense like Cincinnati's. In 2006, Johnson and Houshmandzadeh never caught a touchdown pass in the same game, and Henry and another Bengals receiver only scored in the same game a total of six times. Only once did a pair of Bengals receivers reach the 100-yard mark in the same game (with one near-miss). Heck, Marvin Harrison and Reggie Wayne only reached the 100-yard mark in the same game twice last year and only scored in the same game three times. Plus, if the Bengals' offense sputters in any given week, you are dooming your receiving crew instead of having the hope a player from another team can pick up the slack. I'd opt for another receiver of slightly less value to balance out your receiving squad.
John, Fairfax, Va.: I'm in a 12-team league where you keep two players and lose the corresponding round where you drafted them. I'm keeping Steven Jackson (first) and Joseph Addai (sixth). I have the first pick in the second round. Who do I go after? We use two quarterbacks and a flex player. I would like to go with a quarterback, but am I stretching there since Peyton Manning is being kept?
Engel: Since you already have two prime running backs on your roster, it comes down to a decision between a quarterback and a wide receiver. In my experiences playing in two-quarterback leagues, the position seems to be in nearly as high demand as running backs. Maybe you can't get Manning, but if you have a shot at Tom Brady or Marc Bulger, you can't pass it up. There are only a handful of truly elite quarterbacks available this year and there's only one starter per NFL team. The wide receiver pool is much deeper and you can always nab a flex player a bit later, so take the best quarterback available when it's your turn. The superstar receivers may still be available when it's your turn, but league-wide demand will likely make the quarterback pick more important.
Jason, Indianapolis: I'm in a 14-team league with up to three keepers representing your first three picks. I was thinking about keeping Larry Johnson, Willis McGahee and Maurice Jones-Drew, but we only start two running backs. The best wide receiver I have is Braylon Edwards, and my starting quarterback was Brett Favre. Should I keep all three, or just two?
Engel: First, I would see if you could trade the pick and wind up with another early-round selection, if that is possible under your league rules. While I usually don't advocate keeping players you will not start, I doubt you will get any quarterback or wide receiver of comparable value in the third round if you toss Jones-Drew back into the player pool. I would make the sacrifice, keep Jones-Drew, and you should be able to get rid of him after the draft if you can't do so before it. You have a great chance of being able to move a player on your bench who can start for another team once all the rosters are mostly settled.
Art, Chicago: I'm going into the third year of my dynasty league with Eli Manning and Michael Vick as my only quarterbacks. With Vick's future looking worse every day, I am in need of another passer. The only starters available when our preseason claims begin will be Tarvaris Jackson, Brodie Croyle and Matt Schaub. Other league members are talking Schaub, so I'm thinking of going under the radar with Jackson.
Engel: No one knows for sure yet just how Vick's off-field issues will affect his playing time this year. It's good you still have Manning, who I think will improve this year. You can certainly start Vick over him at the beginning of the year until Manning shows clear signs of moving forward. It's a good move to have further insurance, but I would try to avoid Jackson, a raw player with no solid receiving options. Croyle should get a chance to start at some point, but he also lacks in-game experience and would be a very risky option, even as a backup. If you can't get Schaub, I'd go for an experienced player who could post decent numbers at times. That could be Vick's current backup, Joey Harrington. Oakland's Josh McCown, who will likely start this season, is another option. If it comes down to pure desperation, though, I would take Jackson over Croyle, because Jackson is more of a dual threat.
Andy, New Jersey: I am in a 12-team league where we keep one rookie, one franchise player and one player drafted after round 10. I drafted for this year and beyond, taking Steven Jackson, Reggie Bush, Greg Jennings and Jerious Norwood last year. We use a flex player and award points for receptions. Who do I keep between Jennings and Norwood? Secondly, which position should I target with my No. 2 pick in this year's draft?
Engel: Assuming you are already keeping Jackson and Bush, Norwood fits nicely into the flex role for you, because he'll at least make some occasional big plays in 2007. He is expected to make a serious push for the starting job this year, even if he continues to share playing time with Warrick Dunn. Norwood also has some promise as a pass-catcher. I like Jennings to continue to improve this season, but I'd rather see you focus on getting more established wideouts in the draft. You can spend at least two of your top three picks on wide receivers and will get better quality at the position. Then, you can still grab Jennings if he is available later on.
Scott Engel covers fantasy sports for ESPN.com. You can contact Scott here.
