Engel's mailbag: Keeper decisions
Miles, Denver: I can keep two from Larry Johnson, Rudi Johnson and Travis Henry. When drafting third overall, do I pick up the best available player, even if it's a running back, for a possible trade later on?
Engel: Larry Johnson and Henry are your two best keeper options. Larry Johnson has some well-noted question marks surrounding him this year, but Rudi Johnson could also see a decrease in value with rookie Kenny Irons threatening to cut into his workload. Neither player is a sure thing in 2007, but Larry has performed at a higher level than Rudi in the past. I also have a lot of confidence that Larry Johnson will overcome concerns about last year's amount of carries and will produce better once the Chiefs realize they shouldn't go with an unproven quarterback yet. Henry is set to deliver a great season and should produce very well over the next two years. You want to win now, and Henry can be one of the keys to a fantasy championship run. Unless you can start a flex player, I see no reason to spend your first pick on a running back. I don't believe in drafting to trade when the player you may deal for later on is actually available in the draft. Even if you can start a flex player, you already have two of your three running back positions set and getting a player to anchor another position should be a higher priority for you.
Brian Coyle, Gaithersburg, Md.: My office has an ESPN league and I might become the new commissioner. Some of our members would like to make this a keeper league, with each team retaining one of its players from last year. From what I can tell from other leagues, you lose the round in which you drafted the player originally. I have Larry Johnson from the first round of 2006. I was also able to pick up Maurice Jones-Drew and Marques Colston as free agents. I'll pick 10th this year.
Engel: You should not convert your league to a keeper format based on last year's rosters. Yes, it would be a nice bonus for you to keep one of the three guys you mentioned, or for LaDainian Tomlinson's owner to retain his rights. Most teams, however, would have drafted, traded and made free-agent additions much differently had they known that they could retain players in 2007. I would start the keeper format with players being eligible for keeper status beginning with this season's draft. You can use the draft pick rule for rosters beginning in the next offseason, and I like that approach as compared to just keeping any one or two players. Players picked up as free agents will cost you a final-round pick, and I think more than one keeper makes it more challenging. Two keepers should be a good way to start things off. In the event that you do want to base your league on last year's results, there's no question you should retain Jones-Drew for a final-rounder. Yet that will stir one of the controversies of basing the league on last year's results. Other owners can also accuse you of converting to a keeper format because you pick 10th and won't have a chance of getting a player of Larry Johnson's caliber with that selection in the first round. Nixing last year's results will save you a lot of headaches.
Mike, Pittsburgh: I have a trade offer on the table. I give up Shaun Alexander and Andre Johnson for Laurence Maroney and Chad Johnson.
Engel: I'm not one of the big Maroney backers for this season. I think he needs to improve as an inside runner and must show he can break tackles more regularly. He will endure some growing pains in 2007 as he attempts to become a featured running back at the NFL level. I expect a rebound year from Alexander and think he will be more dependable than Maroney this season, even though the New England running back should have a few impressive outings. This trade is about the longer term, though, and Maroney will eventually become a fantasy standout and he is only 22 years old, while Alexander will be 30 when the season starts. Plus, Chad Johnson is much more established as a top fantasy wide receiver than Andre Johnson, and the Bengals' star has more good seasons ahead of him. I'd make the trade, but don't have inflated expectations for Maroney right away. Increased opportunities don't instantly mean better production, but he'll evolve into a top running back for you by next season.
Scott, Charlotte, N.C.: I can keep Cedric Benson or Carson Palmer as my fifth-round pick. Palmer projects for higher points and I believe the spread between Palmer and the points I'd get for another quarterback in the fifth is greater than the spread between Benson and a fifth-round running back.
Engel: ESPN projects Palmer for 242 fantasy points in 2007, with 30 touchdown passes and 14 interceptions among the numbers that make him the second-best quarterback in our leagues this season. Matt Hasselbeck, who will be a fifth-rounder in many leagues, is projected to score 220 points. Benson, projected for 1,149 rushing yards and eight touchdowns, totals 163 points, 17th among running backs. Carnell Williams, whom I have seen go in the fifth round in many drafts, is projected for 132, so there's not a major difference in the point totals; and I assume your league requires more starting running backs than quarterbacks, which weighs in Benson's favor. When you consider, though, that Palmer is already widely regarded as the second-best fantasy player at his position, he certainly gets the edge. Benson has a lot to prove this year, and Palmer is definitely the safer keeper.
Mike, New York, N.Y.: I have the No. 1 pick in a keeper league. My keepers are Frank Gore (lose a second-rounder) and Willie Parker (fourth round) in a league that starts two quarterbacks and a flex player. With the No. 1 pick would you take the best running back (I know Steven Jackson will be there) or the best quarterback?
Engel: Having a trio of Jackson, Gore and Parker seems too good to pass up, even in a league that allows for two starting quarterbacks. However, you must also consider you won't be picking your starting quarterback until the third round if you take Jackson, and that's a long time to wait when quarterbacks are going to fly off the board in your league. Plus, if commit your first two draft picks to a running back and a quarterback, you can't even begin to think about your top wide receiver until the fifth round. I have to say you must fill other areas of concern in your starting lineup instead of loading up at one position. You already have two outstanding running backs and can get a fine starting quarterback with your first pick and a wide receiver in the third round. Resist the temptation of Jackson, and there's also another scenario to consider. Try to trade down in the first round and you can still take that quarterback with the first pick, while you can exchange a third- or fifth-rounder for an opportunity to get your first wide receiver earlier than you can now. I am sure you will have no shortage of takers when Jackson is the prize.
Scott Engel covers fantasy sports for ESPN.com. You can contact Scott here.
