ESPN

Here lies the venerable Two-Stud-Running-Back Draft Strategy (2SRBDS), former surefire method for fantasy football success, whose life was full of honor and whose services, talents and virtues were the pride and glory of the fantasy football nation. It expired in mathematical relevance at the conclusion of the 2007 NFL season. The once tried-and-true method for virtually assuring fantasy football success succumbed to wide overuse and parasitic-like growth of the dreaded "running back by committee" on NFL teams. Services will be private, and donations to other fantasy team owners will be sent by those who fail to acknowledge its passing.

Sadly, the mathematic viability of the anti-2SRBDS theory still is contested by those who refuse to be open-minded by allowing the statistical relevance of the variability of positional scoring into their decision-making process on draft day. To this extent, this author encourages these "Mathnoticians" to read the facts below and revisit their thought processes. Failure to do so will leave owners with the choice of recycled excuses that point to all positions with the exception of running back. These excuses will ring as hollow as the 2SRBDS.

I'll be completely honest -- I abhor the 2SRBDS. It hasn't proved to be a real mathematical advantage in years. I've written plenty of articles on it, most notably in ESPN's draft kit and fantasy preview magazine in 2007. It's time the fantasy community as a whole evolves into a more cerebral society, and perhaps it finally will this year. So keep an open mind and explore these facts and their true effects:

The 2SRBDS was advantageous for a long time. During that period, running backs were workhorses for their respective NFL teams, and wide receivers were afterthoughts in most offensive game plans. Sure, Cris Carter and Andre Reed were studs in their heyday, but at the end of the day, fantasy football was about the grinders between the tackles. Then, starting in 2002, select offensive coordinators realized something that would have a slow, cascading effect on fantasy football: NFL offenses could thrive by creating speed and size mismatches, and role specialization would be the key to allowing this to happen.

Fast forward to 2007, and witness this research done by ESPN's Jason Vida:

The player who led his team in rushing attempts accounted for fewer than 54 percent of his team's attempts, the lowest percentage in the past 10 NFL seasons. At the same time, the player with the second-most rushing attempts on his team got the ball on more than 23 percent of his team's attempts, the highest percentage in the past 10 NFL seasons. The bottom line: In 2007, NFL teams gave fewer carries to their leading rushers and more carries to their second backfield options than in any of the past 10 seasons.

This, my friends, is the net of specialization plus mismatch-based offensive philosophies, and it has had a dramatic effect on the value of the players you generally would consider drafting in the second round of your fantasy drafts. Don't believe me? Take a look at this chart of players who would be your likely targets during Round 2.

Here's what you should take from the chart:

• The production of second-tier running backs -- those players owners hope to take in the second round of fantasy drafts -- has diminished since 2002.

• Wide receiver value in the same tier has been more or less stable, with the exception of the drop in 2006, which was caused by a lack of a clear, dominant No. 1 overall fantasy receiver.

• The value of the top five wide receivers in 2007 was positively influenced by Randy Moss' superhuman campaign. However, if you were to take Moss out and replace him with, say, the sixth-best wide receiver, the resulting average still would be 210 fantasy points.

• The 2SRBDS does not take into account the diminished value of running backs projected to be taken in the second round.

So let's start with the most common argument against taking a wide receiver instead of a running back, which is simply that running backs will remain in high demand, so it's imperative you build depth there. It's bogus. Once you exclude the running backs who got injured, there isn't a real mathematical difference between backs taken in Rounds 2 through 7.

Average running backs points (by round)
Round taken	1	2	3	4	5	6
Fantasy points	206	148	159	174	197	119

That 29-point difference between Rounds 2 and 6 amounts to less than two points per week. When you account for normal scoring variations, that difference becomes statistically insignificant, as it amounts to less than one-third of the normal standard deviation of a player's weekly scores.

Now, take a look at a similar round-by-round distribution for wide receivers:

Average wide receivers points (by round)
Round taken	2	3	4	5	6	7
Fantasy points	196	198	182	145	105	111

The difference between Rounds 2 and 7 is 87 points, or almost 5.5 points per week. That represents almost one full standard deviation of a normal fantasy starter's weekly scores, which makes the difference statistically significant.

Furthermore, you should notice immediately the severe drop-off from the first three rounds, in which wide receivers tend to be drafted, to the next three rounds. It's not a gradual drop by any stretch of the imagination. Thus, and I can't say this clearly enough: If you want to be competitive, you need to secure your wide receivers early.

It's not too late! Leagues are forming and drafting until Sep. 20, with scoring retroactive to Week 1. Sign Up Today!

That old adage that there isn't depth available at running back during the draft ... well, that's not true either. Of the top 20 running backs from the 2007 season, only 10 were drafted in the first three rounds of standard fantasy leagues. Four of the top 20 weren't even drafted in the first 10 rounds, including two players -- ESPN Fantasy Hall of Famers Earnest Graham and Ryan Grant -- who remained available as free agents long after the season had begun.

To put it bluntly, taking two running backs with your first two picks is the equivalent of handicapping your team unnecessarily. You wouldn't want to join a league in which you automatically gave up three to five points per week to your opponent, but if you choose to continue to employ the 2SRBDS, that is precisely what you are doing.

The market for 2SRBDS is saturated; too many people are employing the strategy, even as the value of the second tier of running backs is diminishing by specialized roles. So what's a savvy fantasy owner to do? Simple. Just bow your head in a moment of reflection and take solace in the fact that while you know 2SRBDS is dead, others don't, and you'll have an advantage because of it. Then, go draft a stud wide receiver in the second round.

Ken Daube is a fantasy football analyst for ESPN. His fan profile is available here.