Running backs: Peterson and L.T. a lot closer than you think
I am old, so I remember when parachute pants were the height of fashion. It was a time when breakdancing was super-cool, and the children of suburbia were busy appropriating its cultural totems, so those big baggy nylon monstrosities were seen all over the halls of my junior high. At some point in time, however, if you didn't need to spin 720 degrees on your rear end to the "Breakin' 2: Electric Boogaloo" soundtrack, walking around with your junk sort of loose fell out of favor.
The same has happened with single-rusher NFL offenses.

A casual look at NFL backfields heading into '08 yields relatively few situations where one man is favored to dominate his team's carries, and far more running-back-by-committee (RBBC) scenarios. Of course, injuries and ineffectiveness have a way of shaking up what we think we know in June, but any way you slice it, there are more RBBCs in the NFL right now than in recent memory.
For fantasy, this is marginally brutal. It means that after the elite running backs are drafted, life becomes something of a crapshoot. Do you dare take Earnest Graham to be your No. 2 rusher? Does the Steelers' selection of Rashard Mendenhall mean Parker's days as a full-time back are behind him? DeAngelo Williams or Jonathan Stewart? Kevin Smith or Tatum Bell? Julius Jones or T.J. Duckett?
The trend is clear, but its implications aren't. Does all this mean getting a stud, three-down rusher is more of a priority than ever? Does it mean it's smarter to spend a high pick on a sure-fire quarterback or receiver, and make up for a lack rushing star power with a whole bunch of "maybes?" Really only one thing is for certain: The good ol' days where we could advise you to take two running backs in the first two rounds of your fantasy draft no matter what are gone. Things are just too fluid these days. With that in mind, let's peruse the field.
Running back rankings (by tier)
LaDainian Tomlinson is still the king of the running back position -- and fantasy football overall. But Minnesota's Adrian Peterson has closed that gap, and an argument could be made for him being selected first overall.
Tier 1
1. LaDainian Tomlinson, Chargers
2. Adrian Peterson, Vikings
3. Brian Westbrook, Eagles
4. Joseph Addai, Colts
5. Steven Jackson, Rams
Tier 2
6. Frank Gore, 49ers
7. Clinton Portis, Redskins
8. Marshawn Lynch, Bills
Tier 3
9. Marion Barber, Cowboys
10. Larry Johnson, Chiefs
11. Ryan Grant, Packers
12. Willie Parker, Steelers
13. Willis McGahee, Ravens
14. Jamal Lewis, Browns
15. Maurice Jones-Drew, Jaguars
Tier 4
16. Brandon Jacobs, Giants
17. Laurence Maroney, Patriots
18. Reggie Bush, Saints
19. Michael Turner, Falcons
Tier 5
21. Thomas Jones, Jets
22. Edgerrin James, Cardinals
23. Earnest Graham, Buccaneers
24. Ronnie Brown, Dolphins
25. Fred Taylor, Jaguars
26. Selvin Young, Broncos
27. LenDale White, Titans
Tier 6
28. Jonathan Stewart, Panthers
29. Julius Jones, Seahawks
30. Matt Forte, Bears
31. Chris Perry, Bengals
32. Justin Fargas, Raiders
33. Kevin Smith, Lions
34. DeAngelo Williams, Panthers
35. Ricky Williams, Dolphins
36. Chester Taylor, Vikings
Tier 7
37. Felix Jones, Cowboys
38. Kenny Watson, Bengals
39. Deuce McAllister, Saints
40. Ahmad Bradshaw, Giants
41. Rashard Mendenhall, Steelers
42. Jerious Norwood, Falcons
Tier 8
43. Leon Washington, Jets
44. Chris Johnson, Titans
45. Ladell Betts, Redskins
46. Rudi Johnson, Bengals
47. Derrick Ward, Giants
48. Maurice Morris, Seahawks
49. LaMont Jordan, Patriots
50. Ahman Green, Texans
51. Sammy Morris, Patriots
52. Pierre Thomas, Saints
53. DeShaun Foster, 49ers
54. Brandon Jackson, Packers
55. Aaron Stecker, Saints
56. Andre Hall, Broncos
Tier 9
57. Kevin Jones, Bears
58. Ray Rice, Ravens
59. Kolby Smith, Chiefs
60. Michael Bush, Raiders
61. Dominic Rhodes, Colts
62. Michael Pittman, Broncos
63. Chris Henry, Titans
64. T.J. Duckett, Seahawks
65. Brian Leonard, Rams
66. Warrick Dunn, Buccaneers
67. Adrian Peterson, Bears
68. Mewelde Moore, Steelers
69. Ryan Torain, Broncos
70. Fred Jackson, Bills
Meanwhile, Peterson transmogrified into "Purple Jesus" before our eyes in '07, setting the single-game rushing record (296 yards, against the vaunted Chargers defense), and at his peak was the best running back in the game. However, Peterson also reinforced his reputation as a somewhat injury-prone player, tearing his LCL, missing two games and averaging just 2.7 yards per carry once he returned. We've still ranked Tomlinson ahead of Peterson because of his week-to-week steadiness and the fact that Chester Taylor is still in Minnesota. But the gap is shrinking.
Brian Westbrook led the league in yards from scrimmage last season, was third in rushing yards, second in touches and seventh in touchdowns. Like Tomlinson, Westbrook turns 29 this summer, which means all the hard hits could catch up to him at any time. But he's still an elite pass catcher, still has no competition for carries in Philadelphia and shook off the "injury-prone" label by playing 15 games in '07. Joseph Addai scored 15 times in '07, including two three-touchdown games, and failed to score in just four of the 14 games in which he played meaningful minutes. While his yards-per-carry average (4.1) wasn't spectacular, Addai has shown a nose for the goal line, and the plush rushing job in Indy is all his. Steven Jackson tore his groin in Week 3 last season and wound up missing four entire games and parts of two others. Meanwhile, the Rams' offense was submarined by injuries at nearly every position, but it figures to get back on track behind new offensive coordinator Al Saunders (and healed Hall of Fame-bound tackle Orlando Pace). Jackson is just 25 years old, and should be a beast in '08.
For some reason, Clinton Portis doesn't get credit for a terrific '07, especially in light of what was expected of him. After all, he was coming off an '06 campaign in which he suffered injuries and lost significant time to Ladell Betts, plus he had to rush most of last season behind a line that didn't include plow horses Jon Jansen and Randy Thomas. Portis led the league in carries in '07, was third in yards from scrimmage, and set career highs with 47 catches and 389 receiving yards. Given new offensive coordinator Jim Zorn's presence in D.C. and the West Coast offense he's installing, Portis figures to have a ton of value in '08 and to be underrated in your fantasy draft. We were ready to bury Jamal Lewis when he moved to Cleveland last year. After two subpar years in Baltimore, Lewis looked like a hesitant, reluctant runner destined for the sidelines. However, the suddenly excellent Browns offensive line (behind mammoth rookie tackle Joe Thomas) and a shockingly good pass game opened up all kinds of space for Lewis, who suddenly hit holes hard again and seemed in far better shape than he'd been in at the end of his Ravens tenure. Now Lewis has a new three-year deal, so there's always a chance he gets complacent again. But we don't think so. There's an awful lot of offensive talent on this team, and Lewis showed a solid nose for the end zone in '07. The fantasy football maxim suggests fantasy owners shouldn't chase touchdowns. The logic is that it's not a rusher's fault if he does all the work but gets tackled on the 1-yard line, needs a blow and someone else punches it in. But is there a corresponding maxim about not chasing guys who don't produce touchdowns? Thomas Jones didn't have that bad a first year with the Jets in '07: He finished 10th in the league in rushing. However, he scored exactly once. Yikes. That made him a fantasy pariah, as did the fact that he averaged only 3.6 yards per carry. However, the Jets definitely showed they were committed to the run (Jones was fifth in the league in carries), and they signed guard Alan Faneca to open more holes. Jones turns 30 this year, which is a little scary, but the freakish lack of touchdowns has to reverse itself this season, doesn't it? Fred Taylor has the thankless task of moving the ball between the 20s, whereupon Maurice Jones-Drew swoops in and vultures touchdowns. It's an arrangement that works for the Jaguars, and certainly means the MJD is the more valuable member of the Jacksonville backfield for fantasy purposes. But that doesn't mean you should ignore Taylor. Freddy appears fragile no more, as he has missed only one meaningful game in the last two seasons, finished ninth in rushing yards in '08 and also finished third in yards per carry (5.4). At age 32, he probably can't handle a full load anymore. The good part is: He doesn't have to.

Michael Turner has stepped from LaDainian Tomlinson's shadow, and will be the man in Atlanta this fall, at least on first and second downs. On one hand, that's good news: New Falcons offensive coordinator Mike Mularkey comes from the Pittsburgh smash-mouth tradition. He'll often put two tight ends on the field and give Turner a good chance to be effective. On the other hand, it's bad news: This young offensive line is still one of the league's shakiest, and the quarterback situation will be iffy for as long as it takes Matt Ryan to get comfortable. Still, Turner figures to be the main guy in Atlanta, with Jerious Norwood acting as the team's third-down option. With Shaun Alexander gone in Seattle, will one man step into the breach and claim fantasy glory? Julius Jones, formerly of the Cowboys, and T.J. Duckett, formerly of the Lions, should get the first chances, though Maurice Morris is still around, too. Jones signed the biggest contract, so common sense suggests the Seahawks would love him to step up and be the man, and it's possible he takes the reins early and never lets go. But Mike Holmgren has already endorsed the idea of a committee, with Duckett stealing goal-line touches. When the Broncos released Travis Henry this spring, Selvin Young was suddenly the name on fantasy owners' lips. Going into training camp, Young looks like a clear favorite for touches in the Denver backfield. He averaged a strong 5.2 yards per carry in his rookie season, and he caught 35 passes as Henry's understudy. But beware of Mike Shanahan. A cast of relative lowlights (including Michael Pittman and Andre Hall) waits for Young to spit the bit, but watch out for talented rookie Ryan Torain, who could return from a fractured elbow around Week 7. Warrick Dunn returns to Tampa Bay after six years in Atlanta, and for the moment he looks like the Bucs' third-down back. But this summer Jon Gruden swore that he'll use Dunn more frequently than that, and considering Earnest Graham could be a one-year wonder, Cadillac Williams is still hurt and Michael Pittman is gone, Dunn could get a chance to rekindle old glory. Of course, while his 33-year-old heart might be willing, his legs might not be.

Is Willie Parker still "the man" in Pittsburgh? Fast Willie broke his leg in Week 16, costing him a rushing title, but he was a fantasy disappointment long before that, having scored just two touchdowns all year. Now that the Steelers have drafted Rashard Mendenhall, the backfield situation in the Steel City has grown cloudier. Earnest Graham might be diminutive (5-foot-9) and lack top-end speed, but he's a rugged little guy who always falls forward, a trait which helped him score 10 touchdowns in '07. However, there are suddenly a lot of options in Tampa, including prodigal son Warrick Dunn. Can Graham, who has skipped OTAs and is looking for a new contract, carry the banner of being an unquestioned starter for a full season? Or is he the prototypical one-year wonder? Darren McFadden is sure to attract the most attention, but Justin Fargas and Michael Bush are still players to consider in Oakland. Fargas posted his first 1,000-yard season and looked dominating in several games last season, while Bush is finally recovered from the broken leg that basically caused him to "redshirt" his rookie season. Bush has reportedly been a star at Raiders activities this spring, and the team now appears to have an embarrassment of riches at running back. When Carolina jettisoned DeShaun Foster, it looked like DeAngelo Williams would finally get a chance to be the Panthers' unquestioned feature back. Alas, that didn't last long, as the team drafted Jonathan Stewart in April. Now Williams is back in a familiar position -- scrapping for carries, trying to justify his own high draft selection, and trying not to get tackled for a loss, which happens to him alarmingly often. Rudi Johnson had a disastrous 2007, which opened the door for third-down man Kenny Watson to take a turn as the Bengals' every-down man. Watson played well (52 receptions, seven rushing touchdowns), but he didn't always excel getting tough yards. Cincy is excited about getting Chris Perry back from injury, and he is in line to start for the Bengals in Week 1. But will he be able to hold off Watson? Pierre Thomas racked up 100 yards rushing and receiving in the season's final game last year, giving the Saints a hint of what might be coming. There's no guarantee Deuce McAllister will be at full strength -- or remain that way, if he is -- in '08, which means Reggie Bush might be in search of a new platoon mate. While Aaron Stecker had some terrific moments in '07, his skill set is too much like Bush's. That could make Thomas a better fit to be a bruising complement.

With Brandon Jacobs susceptible to ankle injury and Reuben Droughns apparently out of favor with the Giants, Ahmad Bradshaw, one of the team's playoff heroes, looks like an intriguing sleeper to us. Derrick Ward should be back from his broken ankle, but it was the undrafted Bradshaw whose quickness and speed we found ourselves most impressed by in '07. And even if Jacobs stays healthy, Bradshaw has better receiving skills than any other third-down candidate on the Super Bowl champs' roster. Leon Washington of the Jets is actually a similar player to Bradshaw, and we can't help but think he's a breakout candidate, too. Now, people have been saying this about Washington for three straight seasons, but it's worth noting the Jets' offense was more dangerous and explosive with Washington on the field in '07. Coach Eric Mangini seems to believe Washington is too small to be a full-time player, but the kid averaged five yards per carry last year. If he finally gets a real chance, the results could be intriguing. Because of Ryan Grant's emergence in the second half of '07, Brandon Jackson is the forgotten man in Green Bay, but he shouldn't be. Yes, Jackson struggled badly with his blocking in his starts early last year, leading to his benching. But he's still a tough, powerful kid with good hands as a receiver. There's no question Grant will be the man to start the season for the Pack, and there's no reason to think he won't be effective. But don't sleep on Jackson. He looks in line to be the third-down back to begin '08, and a larger role could await him thereafter. Kevin Jones had Lisfranc (foot) surgery in '06 and tore his ACL in '07, and the Lions decided they couldn't wait on him any longer, so they cut him this winter. But Jones reportedly wowed scouts at a workout this May, leading some media types to opine that Detroit might have made a hasty move. Jones has signed with the Bears as insurance, and you could do a lot worse with your final-round pick.
As I said earlier, the mandate that you must take running backs with your first two fantasy picks no matter what is gone, maybe for good. As Tom Brady and Randy Moss proved last season, players at other positions can come out of the woodwork and flatten a whole lot of mediocre running backs who are stuck in committees or who are just, well, kind of bad. Still, don't play with fire. There's nothing worse than coming out of a fantasy draft and having Ahman Green as your No. 2 rusher. So if you go for a quarterback or wide receiver in one of the first two rounds, I still strongly advise you to wind up with your starting backfield in the first three rounds overall, or at the worst, the first four rounds. There's such a significant drop-off after the top 30 or 40 rushers, and you usually can go out and find a serviceable receiver in Round 5 or beyond. If you can avoid taking massive chances with your starting rushers, do it, though if you've got your heart set on Darren McFadden, you're probably going to have to take him as a fantasy starter. Begin taking higher-risk players in the sixth round, after you've filled in your starting group. And always try to snag as many deep-sleeper running backs as you can late in your draft(s). Heck, I don't mind if I wind up with seven or eight rushers on my team in an attempt to hit a home run late. While most of those guys won't ever wind up playing for your team, late-round rushers usually wind up being the best lottery tickets because when they hit, they pay off huge.
Each fantasy auction is its own animal, so it's tough to give absolutes about how much dough you should spend on running backs. In a league that gives you $260 to spend on your players, a decent rule of thumb is that, in an average draft, if you budget between $110 and $130 for rushers, you'll probably be fine. Your starters will eat up the vast majority of that budget while your reserves and sleepers will come on the relative cheap. Now, this "median" budget I've just proposed doesn't account for the variations in strategy that occur in every fantasy football auction. If you've decided you're going to pay for one of the two elite rushers, for instance, you're probably going to have to spend upwards of $110 on one guy by himself. That could mean your running back budget will have to eclipse 50 percent of your total dollars, or it could mean you're going with a "studs-and-duds" auction strategy and you plan on spending only a couple dollars on your No. 2 rusher. However, no matter what strategy you employ, make sure you have a nice long list of potential $1 or $2 rushers for your auction's end game. As in snake drafts, I like to wind up with a preponderance of lottery-ticket running backs in an auction, because rushers who come out of left field to be significant contributors can make you a league champion.
Christopher Harris is a fantasy baseball, football and racing analyst for ESPN.com. He is a six-time Fantasy Sports Writing Association award winner across all three of those sports. You can e-mail him here.



